NTTD & Corona

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Comments

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited August 26 Posts: 3,461
    Oh well.

    It’s not like this is going to hurt Bond in the long run. It’s understandable why it can’t make its ROI. Every film is “underperforming” so it’s not like people will treat Bond differently.

    Underperforming is obviously the new normal. F9 has now crossed the $700 million mark, something NTTD would never remotely achieve given the current times, and that’s still the lowest grossing for a F&F film over the last 10 years (F6 in 2013 almost hit the $800 million mark).
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython "I want you looking FABULOUS."
    Posts: 4,726
    If Bond ultimately manages to do $700m, that’s impressive given the times. No ifs or buts about it. Saying it didn’t make its ROI will be more of a footnote than a reflection of what a failure it is.
  • Posts: 569
    If Bond ultimately manages to do $700m, that’s impressive given the times. No ifs or buts about it. Saying it didn’t make its ROI will be more of a footnote than a reflection of what a failure it is.

    Right.
    If it tops F&F9 it would be the most theatrical seen movie of 2021 (besides the chinese "Hi, Mom") worldwide.
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 4,469
    So many industries have been decimated by the virus. The movie industry is one of them.

    I'm sure NTTD will make a lot of money post-theatrical release. MGM et al may just have to re-negotiate deals...perhaps they already have, which might be why we are seeing the release now.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited August 26 Posts: 3,461
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    If Bond ultimately manages to do $700m, that’s impressive given the times. No ifs or buts about it. Saying it didn’t make its ROI will be more of a footnote than a reflection of what a failure it is.

    Right.
    If it tops F&F9 it would be the most theatrical seen movie of 2021 (besides the chinese "Hi, Mom") worldwide.

    Spidey has a chance to outgross F9.
    If Bond ultimately manages to do $700m, that’s impressive given the times. No ifs or buts about it. Saying it didn’t make its ROI will be more of a footnote than a reflection of what a failure it is.

    $600 million would be absolutely impressive, a SF level of success. $700 million it’s out of Bond’s reach. Grossing $500 million would still be a success, since given the current situation with the business down a 40/50% a $500 million theatrical gross would’ve meant something like 1B pre COVID and that was more or less the prediction back then. NTTD has always been projected to stand in between SP and SF level of success. Ah, and F9 was always projected to gross more than Bond.
  • edited August 26 Posts: 999
    The $928 figure comes from the return on investment approach, which is different from simply breaking even.

    Say you put $20 for a lottery ticket, but you only win $20. You essentially got your money back, but you didn't make MORE money than you spent. That's kind of where MGM is at. If the movie makes $600m, it broke even, but it didn't make anyone richer than they already were.

    At least, that's my rough understanding of ROI.

    Yeah, but it's also made up. The writers seem to have no special knowledge of how these films are financed or to what degree product placement and other deals factor in. Applying their calculations to QoS and SP would suggest those films lost money, only to be followed up by even more expensive movies, which would make Barbara and Michael formidably stupid and incompetent people, which I suspect is not the case.

    Or on this new article, their random "calculation" involves averaging out SF and SP grosses (for some reason) and, among other random things, multiplying that by the total difference in total annual box office (for some reason). The number of seats that can be sold is somehow factored in too. But it should be obvious that a screening with restricted capacity is more likely to sell out than a film with maximum capacity. But they just multiply the numbers for no reason.

    Beyond that, the 25% capacity restriction they give for Germany (where I live) is not accurate, and they say Australia "cannot be projected" but then do project it to be zero dollars.

    And just fundamentally, they're comparing apples and screwdrivers. There is simply not enough data to model how a movie like NTTD will perform in the current climate. These articles are written so that tabloid writers who are allotted 15 minutes a day to turn in a Bond article will quote them and send traffic to the website.
  • JamesBondKenyaJamesBondKenya Danny Boyle laughs to himself
    Posts: 2,725
    I genuinely don’t understand why they aren’t marketing this film. Free guy made “a lot” of money, and they marketed that film so hard. Billboards everywhere, trailers, special trailers, adverts on social media- all like 3 months before. Everyone I talk to doesn’t even know a bond film is coming out
  • edited August 26 Posts: 329
    I genuinely don’t understand why they aren’t marketing this film. Free guy made “a lot” of money, and they marketed that film so hard. Billboards everywhere, trailers, special trailers, adverts on social media- all like 3 months before. Everyone I talk to doesn’t even know a bond film is coming out

    Circle back to this in a week or two.
  • edited August 26 Posts: 569
    Beyond that, the 25% capacity restriction they give for Germany (where I live) is not accurate.

    Correct. It differs from state to state.
    In some german states they allow 100%, in others 50%.
    But 25% is not accurate at all any more.
  • Posts: 2,404
    There's still a virus out there, where's the MI6 HQ open letter begging them to delay ...
  • Posts: 782
    I genuinely don’t understand why they aren’t marketing this film. Free guy made “a lot” of money, and they marketed that film so hard. Billboards everywhere, trailers, special trailers, adverts on social media- all like 3 months before. Everyone I talk to doesn’t even know a bond film is coming out

    They pretty much blew their marketing budget advertising the film over the last two years.

  • Posts: 1,164
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    Point is that with a mask on is almost impossible to get COVID in a movie theater with a reduced capacity.
    "Almost" > not good enough

    We will never in our lifetime see a time where the risk is down to 0.
    So "almost" is as good as it gets.
    Hence my logic for waiting til the stream and disc.
  • Posts: 329
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    Point is that with a mask on is almost impossible to get COVID in a movie theater with a reduced capacity.
    "Almost" > not good enough

    We will never in our lifetime see a time where the risk is down to 0.
    So "almost" is as good as it gets.
    Hence my logic for waiting til the stream and disc.

    There's nothing wrong with your opinion, it's your life. Everyone has different risk tolerance. Totally defensible position.

    However, if we're going to look at risky situations — let's look at riding in an automobile. Very dangerous thing! Thankfully, we have seatbelts and air bags and other safety mechanisms that greatly reduce the risk (but not to 0!) of death and serious injury if an accident occurs.

    Sort of like vaccines, distancing, and masks.
  • Posts: 616
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.
  • Posts: 1,163
    Personally I think they have left it too late. A Summer opening in late July august would have been better. September October time is highly risky and tbh after the original optimism around the vaccine, I fully expect restrictions back this winter.

    Maybe even circuit breaker lockdown

    I’m actually interested as to what they will do- whether it will be delayed again
    .
  • Posts: 569
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.
  • Posts: 2,404
    Matt007 wrote: »
    Personally I think they have left it too late. A Summer opening in late July august would have been better. September October time is highly risky and tbh after the original optimism around the vaccine, I fully expect restrictions back this winter.

    Maybe even circuit breaker lockdown

    I’m actually interested as to what they will do- whether it will be delayed again
    .

    Are you refering to the UK? Why on earth would there be another lockdown?
  • Posts: 569
    It will depend on how fast they will offer everyone the third jab.

    If not, all the people who were vaccinated in spring and summer will be without vaccination in December/January/February.

    I got my second jab in mid-July. So I think the vaccination will work until Christmas. But then I'm not so sure anymore.
  • Posts: 782
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 3,461
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    Huge +1.
  • Posts: 2,404
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    It will depend on how fast they will offer everyone the third jab.

    If not, all the people who were vaccinated in spring and summer will be without vaccination in December/January/February.

    I got my second jab in mid-July. So I think the vaccination will work until Christmas. But then I'm not so sure anymore.

    Erm, it will still work after Christmas ...
  • Posts: 616
    FWIW, the IMAX Cinema in Fort Lauderdale -- north of Miami, in Florida, USA, on the Southeastern Florida coast -- shows the following in its schedule of films coming up, in chronological order with soonest first:
    Shang-Chi
    Dune
    NTTD
    Eternals
    Top Gun: Maverick
    Spider-Man: No Way Home (for me, more like "Spiderman: No Way Another One")
    The IMAX theater there is nice and LARGE, with a very high ceiling. I don't know their policies now, but we'll see what they'll have as time goes by during the course of these releases, particularly in terms of density of the audience...I mean placement of their bodies, not their brains.
  • AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    From the point of view of someone living with someone who is clinically extremely vulnerable in an area where COVID cases are nearly double as high as where they were in the first wave, I must disagree. Data from Israel (with high vaccination like the UK) shows that 60% of people severely ill with COVID are double jabbed. This comment is not designed to scare, but everyone should judge whether it's safe based on their situation, and what is going on in their area.
  • In most situations though it's appropriate, but people should be able to choose whether they deem it so.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 3,461
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    This comment is not designed to scare, but everyone should judge whether it's safe based on their situation, and what is going on in their area.

    In Italy for example 94% of people in ICU has NOT been vaccinated.
    The only thing I really can’t stand is the notion that theaters are riskier places than trains, bar, restaurants etc etc. Theaters are not riskier. They’re just more expendable.
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 4,469
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    Driving in a car is not the same as a highly communicable disease. C'mon.
  • matt_u wrote: »
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    This comment is not designed to scare, but everyone should judge whether it's safe based on their situation, and what is going on in their area.

    In Italy for example 94% of people in ICU has NOT been vaccinated.
    The only thing I really can’t stand is the notion that theaters are riskier places than trains, bar, restaurants etc etc. Theaters are not riskier. They’re just more expendable.

    That is true. Public transport and schools are the most transmittable places
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    edited September 1 Posts: 9,135
    echo wrote: »
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Since62 wrote: »
    In some places the risk is NOT down. My home state unfortunately is carrying a highly disproportionate share of cases and deaths. ICUs are filled. Not so long ago there would have been much less risk going into a theater. It's peaking here again, and then some. Sucks. Waiting it out. Thing is -- will we be past this peak by the time NTTD gets released ? Hope so.

    We were talking about the risk in a movie theatre compared to other locations like a restaurant, school, public transport etc.

    And the risk of getting the virus in a movie theatre is way lower in a movie theatre than elsewhere.

    Who are the cases and deaths in your home state?
    90% of them not vaccinated?

    Then a vaccinated person would not have a high risk to get severe ill.

    So, yes. Of course the risk is not down (and will never be) if you're not vaccinated. But for vaccinated people the risk is down as down as it can get.

    Agreed.There is always going to be a risk no matter what you do.To stay at home because of risk is no way to live.You take a risk every time you get behind the wheel of a car,does that mean you give up driving? You take a risk every time you board a plane,does that mean you give up flying?

    By all means take precautions,but get out there and live your life.

    Driving in a car is not the same as a highly communicable disease. C'mon.

    Still, the levels of risk based on fatalities, hospitalizations can be compared.

  • DoctorNoDoctorNo USA-Maryland
    Posts: 731
  • Posts: 478
    DoctorNo wrote: »

    Don’t wanna jinx it and I know I’ve been one of the more pessimistic voices here but after this marketing blowout they’ve unleashed, combined with recent statements from MGM, venues secured for the premiere, all of which are promoting it…they’ve reached the point of no return now.

    Top Gun was likely delayed because they think Covid will be hitting much worse in late November when it was scheduled to release. That’s pretty different from September. And MI7 seems to still be filming so it makes sense that was delayed.
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