Coronavirus Discussion

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  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    I disagree with the premise for the whole discussion. Where has curfews and lockdowns helped? We know much harm has come from them. The state authorities are also way out of bounds, and far outside their mandate. They obviously don t trust the population, so why should we trust them? I know I don t . Incompetent and amoral describes the bunch.

    I am not whining for myself, I am not affected much. Many are however, including countless children. The basic precautions-stay home if sick, be careful with the hygiene and keep some distance to strangers has always been smart, and you don t need much more than that even now. Also, shield the extra vulnerable, same as always. I can think for myself, I take offense if some damn politicians try to control my life in detail. Forget it.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    A friend of mine just lost his dad after 2 months in IC. He was 69 with no major diseases. Without restrictions and lockdowns would’ve been a massacre. Yes it sucks, but there’s no other way. The Lombardy region where I live is the one that suffered the most from the pandemic in Italy and in two day it will suffer another lockdown. The Bergamo city in Lombardy back in March became the deadliest killing fields for the virus in the western world with deaths increased by 568% compared to the previous years.
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    In most Northern European countries, mortality has been lower than the average for the last ten years. There is no curfew here, I wonder how many actually died due to the restrictions themselves, and the constant stress and fearmongering.
  • Posts: 7,500
    In most Northern European countries, mortality has been lower than the average for the last ten years. There is no curfew here, I wonder how many actually died due to the restrictions themselves, and the constant stress and fearmongering.

    The restrictions put your life at risk now? Are you just trolling? I hope so...
  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    edited January 2021 Posts: 7,518
    I disagree with the premise for the whole discussion. Where has curfews and lockdowns helped? We know much harm has come from them. The state authorities are also way out of bounds, and far outside their mandate. They obviously don t trust the population, so why should we trust them? I know I don t . Incompetent and amoral describes the bunch.

    I am not whining for myself, I am not affected much. Many are however, including countless children. The basic precautions-stay home if sick, be careful with the hygiene and keep some distance to strangers has always been smart, and you don t need much more than that even now. Also, shield the extra vulnerable, same as always. I can think for myself, I take offense if some damn politicians try to control my life in detail. Forget it.

    China.
    jobo wrote: »
    In most Northern European countries, mortality has been lower than the average for the last ten years. There is no curfew here, I wonder how many actually died due to the restrictions themselves, and the constant stress and fearmongering.

    The restrictions put your life at risk now? Are you just trolling? I hope so...

    I think where Thunder may have a point is that the most vulnerable members of society (homeless, mentally ill, etc.) are possibly harmed by some of the restrictions (social distancing in housing = less housing available, if you don't have a certain number of insurable hours of work, you don't qualify for government benefits, etc). This is especially true here in Vancouver where our homelessness problem is horrific.

    He said he's not worried about himself, and it's true, if you're anywhere around the middle class, it's really unfortunate that you're not able to travel and see family / friends, but of course the restrictions are altogether survivable. Just sit on the couch and watch TV! But that's not the case for those that don't have these basic amenities.
  • Posts: 3,273
    I disagree with the premise for the whole discussion. Where has curfews and lockdowns helped? We know much harm has come from them. The state authorities are also way out of bounds, and far outside their mandate. They obviously don t trust the population, so why should we trust them? I know I don t . Incompetent and amoral describes the bunch.

    I am not whining for myself, I am not affected much. Many are however, including countless children. The basic precautions-stay home if sick, be careful with the hygiene and keep some distance to strangers has always been smart, and you don t need much more than that even now. Also, shield the extra vulnerable, same as always. I can think for myself, I take offense if some damn politicians try to control my life in detail. Forget it.

    Unfortunately many people are stupid and are not sensible, and will flout the rules. This is why politicians are having to try and control this, because some people are too dumb to act smart.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 7,948
    I disagree with the premise for the whole discussion. Where has curfews and lockdowns helped? We know much harm has come from them.
    Everywhere where they were implemented. It was the lockdown that stopped the first wave, and it's the current lockdown that curtailed the far bigger second wave. Look at what's happening in the US: The numbers hardly go down at all, whilst in places where there's a lockdown, they do.
    The state authorities are also way out of bounds, and far outside their mandate. They obviously don t trust the population, so why should we trust them? I know I don t . Incompetent and amoral describes the bunch.
    Which states are you referring to? I know of no country or state where the local government went outside their jurisdiction and to be frank I have no doubt hordes of people would sue the hell out of any state that woud do it.
    You say amoral and incompetent? Now the amoral I wouldn't say, I know too many who truly think they're working for a greater good. Incompetent? Well, what do you expect from an ape species that hardly developed a sense of direction after climbing out of trees and starting to walk upright.
    I am not whining for myself, I am not affected much. Many are however, including countless children. The basic precautions-stay home if sick, be careful with the hygiene and keep some distance to strangers has always been smart, and you don t need much more than that even now. Also, shield the extra vulnerable, same as always. I can think for myself, I take offense if some damn politicians try to control my life in detail. Forget it.
    Welcome to the one-sided story. You're more than welcome to visit an IC unit in my country. Thankfully most whom contract the virus do so in a limited way and recover. I have two collegues who became ill and even though the desease lingered for months, they didn't have to go to the hospital. One aquaintance however, 30 y/o with no underlyin health condition, ended up in coma for 3 months. None of them died so statistically they're not important and yes, my 2,5 y/o need to go to kindergarten so why not fill the IC's up again. Of course it's always better to keep aa distance. Thing is, you may do that in your norwegian lodge, but here in the more densely populated world people just don't do that. If we didn't have lockdown, the rush-hour trains would be packed with people breathing down eachothers neck. The infection rate would be explosive, people would be fully confronted with the virus and we would have hundreds of thousands of people severely affected.

    Is it worth it, you think?

  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    edited January 2021 Posts: 12,916
    In most Northern European countries, mortality has been lower than the average for the last ten years. There is no curfew here, I wonder how many actually died due to the restrictions themselves, and the constant stress and fearmongering.
    You're referring to increased suicides, aggravated mental illness and domestic abuse, effects of not receiving needed medical treatments especially early on in the pandemic, and other unintended effects.

    Yes it will be of interest to compare overall death rates for previous years to 2020 in a clinical, scientific way. And then why folks died, from the virus and otherwise.

  • Posts: 3,273

    Well that's that then. This paper proves it 100%. Case closed. Let's all go back to normal, open up for business, stop all restrictions, no more face masks, no more distancing.

    Job done! Covid will be gone in no time if we take this advice....
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 23,449

    Well that's that then. This paper proves it 100%. Case closed. Let's all go back to normal, open up for business, stop all restrictions, no more face masks, no more distancing.

    Job done! Covid will be gone in no time if we take this advice....

    Trump promised that "it will just go away" and that science knows nothing. So I am quite relieved now. 😉
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?
  • Posts: 3,273
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    I did read it. And disregarded it as nonsense, like any intelligent human being should... ;)
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 7,948
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 7,948
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.

    Well, for a starters, they 'estimate case growth' in relation to any set of implementations they consider mrNPI's. Note they put together (subnational) regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden and the US. Then they take out only Sweden and South Korea because they didn't have 'stay at home' measures.
    The following factors make for different outcomes:
    - Stay at home isn't the same everywhere, the SAH in my country (Netherlands) wasn't anything like the SAH in Italy.
    - The US hardly had any SAH, and above all only in very local places.
    - Cultural diferences are huge. Spaniards aren't known for their obedience. I can tell you that if Greece was included in this list, it would look utterly different.
    - The data aren't comparible, especially in the first wave. In my country only those with severe symptoms ended up in the statistics because of a lack of testing possibilities. I don't know about Iran, but something tells me it was far worse there
    - The selection doesn't seem random. Sweden dit far worse than its neighbours. When I see this list, it's definately a selection of the worst performers. Where's Singapore in this list? Greece? Denmark? Norway? etc. etc.


    could've scored quite a few points there....
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.

    Well, for a starters, they 'estimate case growth' in relation to any set of implementations they consider mrNPI's. Note they put together (subnational) regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden and the US. Then they take out only Sweden and South Korea because they didn't have 'stay at home' measures.
    The following factors make for different outcomes:
    - Stay at home isn't the same everywhere, the SAH in my country (Netherlands) wasn't anything like the SAH in Italy.
    - The US hardly had any SAH, and above all only in very local places.
    - Cultural diferences are huge. Spaniards aren't known for their obedience. I can tell you that if Greece was included in this list, it would look utterly different.
    - The data aren't comparible, especially in the first wave. In my country only those with severe symptoms ended up in the statistics because of a lack of testing possibilities. I don't know about Iran, but something tells me it was far worse there
    - The selection doesn't seem random. Sweden dit far worse than its neighbours. When I see this list, it's definately a selection of the worst performers. Where's Singapore in this list? Greece? Denmark? Norway? etc. etc.


    could've scored quite a few points there....

    They do acknowledge the uncertainties, and the study has been peer reviewed before publication. I wish you would address Stanford University with your criticism, and get back to us with what response they give.
  • Posts: 3,273
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.

    Well, for a starters, they 'estimate case growth' in relation to any set of implementations they consider mrNPI's. Note they put together (subnational) regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden and the US. Then they take out only Sweden and South Korea because they didn't have 'stay at home' measures.
    The following factors make for different outcomes:
    - Stay at home isn't the same everywhere, the SAH in my country (Netherlands) wasn't anything like the SAH in Italy.
    - The US hardly had any SAH, and above all only in very local places.
    - Cultural diferences are huge. Spaniards aren't known for their obedience. I can tell you that if Greece was included in this list, it would look utterly different.
    - The data aren't comparible, especially in the first wave. In my country only those with severe symptoms ended up in the statistics because of a lack of testing possibilities. I don't know about Iran, but something tells me it was far worse there
    - The selection doesn't seem random. Sweden dit far worse than its neighbours. When I see this list, it's definately a selection of the worst performers. Where's Singapore in this list? Greece? Denmark? Norway? etc. etc.


    could've scored quite a few points there....

    They do acknowledge the uncertainties, and the study has been peer reviewed before publication. I wish you would address Stanford University with your criticism, and get back to us with what response they give.

    Peer reviewed by lockdown sceptics like yourself maybe...? ;)
  • Posts: 5,774
    And now, for something completely different :

    764247.jpg?v=0
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    :))
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    edited January 2021 Posts: 17,687
    DarthDimi wrote: »

    Well that's that then. This paper proves it 100%. Case closed. Let's all go back to normal, open up for business, stop all restrictions, no more face masks, no more distancing.

    Job done! Covid will be gone in no time if we take this advice....

    Trump promised that "it will just go away" and that science knows nothing. So I am quite relieved now. 😉

    Yes. I don't work in an ICU inundated with Covid patients, therefore logically, they are not flooded as has been reported by Deep State media. I have also never been to Alaska, so I suspect that that too does not exist. ;)
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    .
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.

    Well, for a starters, they 'estimate case growth' in relation to any set of implementations they consider mrNPI's. Note they put together (subnational) regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden and the US. Then they take out only Sweden and South Korea because they didn't have 'stay at home' measures.
    The following factors make for different outcomes:
    - Stay at home isn't the same everywhere, the SAH in my country (Netherlands) wasn't anything like the SAH in Italy.
    - The US hardly had any SAH, and above all only in very local places.
    - Cultural diferences are huge. Spaniards aren't known for their obedience. I can tell you that if Greece was included in this list, it would look utterly different.
    - The data aren't comparible, especially in the first wave. In my country only those with severe symptoms ended up in the statistics because of a lack of testing possibilities. I don't know about Iran, but something tells me it was far worse there
    - The selection doesn't seem random. Sweden dit far worse than its neighbours. When I see this list, it's definately a selection of the worst performers. Where's Singapore in this list? Greece? Denmark? Norway? etc. etc.


    could've scored quite a few points there....

    They do acknowledge the uncertainties, and the study has been peer reviewed before publication. I wish you would address Stanford University with your criticism, and get back to us with what response they give.
    DarthDimi wrote: »

    Well that's that then. This paper proves it 100%. Case closed. Let's all go back to normal, open up for business, stop all restrictions, no more face masks, no more distancing.

    Job done! Covid will be gone in no time if we take this advice....

    Trump promised that "it will just go away" and that science knows nothing. So I am quite relieved now. 😉

  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 7,948
    Indeed, why bother to actually read it?

    Let's make it a quiz: what's fundamentally wrong about the following passage:
    "We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons)."

    I don t know.

    Well, for a starters, they 'estimate case growth' in relation to any set of implementations they consider mrNPI's. Note they put together (subnational) regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden and the US. Then they take out only Sweden and South Korea because they didn't have 'stay at home' measures.
    The following factors make for different outcomes:
    - Stay at home isn't the same everywhere, the SAH in my country (Netherlands) wasn't anything like the SAH in Italy.
    - The US hardly had any SAH, and above all only in very local places.
    - Cultural diferences are huge. Spaniards aren't known for their obedience. I can tell you that if Greece was included in this list, it would look utterly different.
    - The data aren't comparible, especially in the first wave. In my country only those with severe symptoms ended up in the statistics because of a lack of testing possibilities. I don't know about Iran, but something tells me it was far worse there
    - The selection doesn't seem random. Sweden dit far worse than its neighbours. When I see this list, it's definately a selection of the worst performers. Where's Singapore in this list? Greece? Denmark? Norway? etc. etc.


    could've scored quite a few points there....

    They do acknowledge the uncertainties, and the study has been peer reviewed before publication. I wish you would address Stanford University with your criticism, and get back to us with what response they give.

    I don't need to:
    "Travis Gerke, an epidemiologist at the Moffitt Cancer Center and a visiting scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said that he read Ioannidis’ work while a graduate student. Recently he has wondered if Ioannidis should consider re-reading his own most famous paper, “Why Most Published Research Findings are False.”



    https://undark.org/2020/04/24/john-ioannidis-covid-19-death-rate-critics/
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    edited January 2021 Posts: 23,105
    Arnie getting his vaccine, warning to those who don't like the sight of needles.

    I find out tomorrow when I get my vaccine (dose 1)
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 23,105
    I get my vaccine first dose in 2 days, its not about me; personally I am extremely fit and healthy. I do this to protect other people.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 23,449
    I get my vaccine first dose in 2 days, its not about me; personally I am extremely fit and healthy. I do this to protect other people.

    When I can get mine, I will be taking it for myself as well as for others. I cannot wait, to be frank.
  • Posts: 6,727
    My wife is a frontline worker! Got her first vaccine two weeks ago..but now she has Covid. Apparently you are not in the clear until a week after your second jab!
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns I am trying to get away from this mountan!
    Posts: 23,105
    DarthDimi wrote: »
    I get my vaccine first dose in 2 days, its not about me; personally I am extremely fit and healthy. I do this to protect other people.

    When I can get mine, I will be taking it for myself as well as for others. I cannot wait, to be frank.

    Lets all hope a vaccine is a way out of all this and more importantly save lives.
    Mathis1 wrote: »
    My wife is a frontline worker! Got her first vaccine two weeks ago..but now she has Covid. Apparently you are not in the clear until a week after your second jab!

    My understanding is the first dose does offer some protection in that it can reduce symptoms though as you said not prevent infection, also the first dose takes 3 to 4 weeks for the anti bodies to start working.

    My second dose is scheduled for early April.

    Hope your wife is ok.
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