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This...indeed comes as a shock. I'm almost questioning if you are a Bond fan :-P. Just kidding. But I don't know if you have visited the Sony Leaks topics. Then I can understand you loose a lot of anticipation yes.
If not, then be creative on here. Come up with some interesting topics. Look back on previous Bond films. Indulge in the great cast "SPECTRE" has. Crosslink the current Bond films with today's geopolitical developments. Create some interesting polls. Buy stuff on Ebay or Amazon that is related to the 007 franchise.
All these things together for me make "SPECTRE" the most anticipated film of 2015. Period :-). Besides that, I'm looking forward to certain "smaller" sci-fi films (Ridley Scott's "The Martian", but also the next chapter of "Mad Max") and the more 'realistic' films (non-sci-fi, non-fantasy), like "The Man From U.N.C.L.E.", "Mission: Impossible 5", "The Gunman" (Javier Bardem, Sean Penn no less), "St. James Place" (The Coen Brothers spy film) and "Blackhat".
I am also looking forward to the new movies from Richard Linklater ("That's What I'm Talking About"), Terence Malick ("Knight Of Cups") and Alejandro González Iñárritu ("The Revenant").
And well, "Star Wars", I'll give it a try :)
As for SPECTRE, I steer clear from any thread discussing this movie as it would spoil way too much for me and the initial tone of the discussion was a bit smug and and not very friendly to each other.
As for SW7, Disney did not shell out 4 billion on a franchise for it not to perform, yes I've no doubt some on here will say I'm so over Star Wars but the only film that is going to offer that any competition is The Avengers in the highest grossing films of the year category.
My prediction for SW7 is that yes some will be underwhelmed but for the majority this will be a real return to form and the hype machine for this film has hardly begun, you ain't seen nothing yet.
The anticipation for this film is going to be huge don't underestimate it because of the prequels reception, the plan is to wipe them from the memory an instill a feeling of the original trilogy in everyone's minds and from the trailer we've seen I think this is what we'll get. They picked JJ for a reason, they saw what he delivered with Star Trek and yes I know Trekkies were up in arms over what he's done but he made it accessible to a wider audience not unlike what has happened with Bond.
Some have said why can't we break new ground but I think the plan is to deliver a first film with nods to the classic trilogy and introduce new characters with the old guard which JJ can deliver and then let Rian Johnson take us into new territory once you've hooked your audience with the more familiar.
Although I'm more intrigued by this spin off from Gareth Edwards which is possibly a Dirty Dozen style film with a group of bounty hunters trying to steal the plans to the original Death Star.
That being said I do anticipate Spectre the most, I'm hoping the script leaks and the reports in the press that the 3rd act is terrible don't do it harm. It's OK for the likes of us that have seen that things have been fixed their but the press likes to concentrate on the negative more.
I think EON needs to start drip feeding some info so that a positive word of mouth can start on this, it's alright letting the film community known but these films appeal to more than just fans of film. Bond's bread and butter is it's casual film goer appeal. Skyfall pulled them in and hopefully Spectre will do the same. The world wide release seems the smart way to go for this. So I think it's possible for SP to do the billion but I wouldn't guarantee, I guess we'll see.
Still, by taking into account the possibilities for a better release schedule for "SPECTRE" in China, I'm fairly convinced the 24th Bond film will do at least 2 times better there. And mind my words, 1 Billion is not that much of a big deal anymore. "SPECTRE" will be the 2nd 1 Billion Dollar Bond.
The question should be if it can pass 1.25 Billion. I think it's a realistical prospect that it'll do a 1.25 Billion figure. It IS the highest non-sci-fi, non-fantasy movie of 2015. Reviews and good word of mouth will make the difference between a good 1.10 Billion Dollar figure wordwide or a terrific 1.25 Billion Dollar figure worldwide. But with Sam Mendes that should not be too difficult.
The potential "1 Billion"-ers. And I'm gonna be bold:
01) 1.75 - 1.95 Billion: "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens" (Wun-der-ful marketing)
02) 1.50 - 1.80 Billion: "Avengers 2" (it has "Wars" as strongest competitor)
03) 1.25 - 1.30 Billion: "SPECTRE" (There is no real competition in the same genre for this one. It'll tab basically the entire audience from "TDK", from "Bond" lovers, fans of certain actors like Waltz - Tarantino, Bautista - Marvel, the title reveal is the best ever, creating lots of mystery and gossip, and it rides the waves of "Skyfall". And Sam Mendes status as director starts to become as big as Christopher Nolan.)
04) 1.00 - 1.10 Billion: "Furious 7" (This is gonna be big with Walker's absence)
Grossing over 750 Million Dollars:
05) 800 - 975 Million: "Minions" (these jumped up little sh*t figures...even I love them ;-))
06) 775 - 925 Million: "Cinderella" (First big one of 2015, indeed the brand Disney is as big as Bond and Marvel. Buena Vista must be the most happy movie company in the world now, as they own Disney, Marvel and Pixar)
07) 750 - 900 Million: "The Hunger Hames 4"
08) 750 - 825 Million: "Mission Impossible 5"
09) 700 - 875 Million: "Inside Out" (Pixar movie....but among animated movies franchises do it better)
10) 650 - 725 Million: "Jurassic World"
Regarding "SPECTRE", I think it will have a massive opening weekend in the USA. At least over 110 Million.
Off course not ;-). Despite "SPECTRE" being a 'top' or a 'flop', WE have our Bond film this year. That's a given fact.
But until then, these money figures are a nice extra to discuss. Because 6th of November is still 10 months away. Which is a long time.
This is the EUR/USD exchange history rate.
When 10 people went to see CR/QOS/SF in France, you needed 13 people to see TWINE/DAD to have the same WW BO $ impact (not taking into account inflation).
Most forecasts suggest that the US $ will be even higher vs. the Euro for 2015 so the only hope for higher box office returns (which are ultimately measured in expensive US $) is if they jack up all European ticket prices so it becomes worth more in the US $ measuring unit!
And not quite @Gustav_Graves. As I've mentioned before, Bond takes over 70% of its gross outside the US. That is a huge % and much larger traditionally than other blockbusters (traditionally closer to 50-60%). So Bond is more at risk from a higher US $
No they won't. Bond is historically much more dependent on foreign box office than many, many blockbusters. IMO, quite a few people here go and see Bond because it's *not* an US blockbuster, it's different.
In terms of population : USA = Germany + France + UK + Spain + Italy
For SF : USA = 305M$, these 5 European countries = "330M$"
For Iron Man III for instance : USA = 410M$, 5 European countries = "160M$"
Well, in France now cinema for under 14 will now cost 4 Euros (less than 5$ at the moment).
But marketing in Euros will cost less in $ for Sony... We may see some Bond universe a lot in the ads here in Europe at the end of the year [I can't say more because some info comes from the leaks but you know what I mean] !
Correct. I have already updated my post above to account for the %'s they take historically (US vs foreign).
Exactly, like you say "not quite". But not like @Suivez_ce_parachute puts it: "No, they won't". It's not that black and white.....and you say that implicitly.
I agree that...traditionally.....James Bond isn't that big anymore in the USA as in the old days (1960's). That's a strong fact. But this fact is enhanced only if you are comparing this year's "SPECTRE" with competing Marvel-franchises, like "Avengers 2" or even the past DC-Comics franchise, like "TDKR". Yes, obviously, based on that Bond is likely to be less big in the US than Marvel and DC-Comics were (Just compare "SF" US gross of $304 Million with the $448 Million of "TDKR" and the massive $623 Million of "Avengers").
Factor 1: The Skyfall-buzz
But there are really more factors. From a trend perspective, "Skyfall" created a buzz that still many Bond fans in here underestimate, but that the Bond producers, Sony Pictures and MGM are fully exploiting as we speak. Just read the various "Most Anticipated Movies 2015" rankings on the previous page and be surprised how many reviewers actually come up with sentences like these: "I was never a huge Bond fan....I haven't really seen many of the Bond films. But "Skyfall" changed that. It wasn't just a great Bond film...it was a great film on the whole". "Casino Royale" could not do that kind of buzz, and I think "Casino Royale" is slightly better than "Skyfall".
Factor 2: Theater count (The more theatres, the more screens: Screen count usually not published)
Check the TOP 8 movies from 2012 in the USA. All of them opened and stayed with at least 4,000 or more. To great success. "Skyfall" opened (and stayed) with a way too careful theatre-count of around 3,500. Later on, Sony Pictures admitted that they actually were too careful with that (Sony never had a 1 Billion Dollar movie before "Skyfall"). "Skyfall" actually LOST money on opening weekend, although the $88 Million sounded terrific. Had "Skyfall" opened with a theatre-count that equalled more or less that of "TDKR", on and above 4,400, then "Skyfall" could have had a way more massive weekend opening of 120 Million. So the total gross in the US then could have been close to $336 Million. There's guess work in it, but mark my words: "SPECTRE" will open with a way more massive theatre-count than the 3,500 (one's eyes should pop out if I say that "QOS" also opened with around 3,500....in 2008!). Close to what "Star Wars 7" and "Avengers 2" will be doing. I wouldn't be surprised if "SPECTRE" will be in 4,300 theatres during opening weekend. The almost-global release of "SPECTRE" in almost every territory, UK included, is already a sign (all on November 5th or 6th). So then a $120 Million opening weekend + more could be a lock.
Factor 3: With what movie in the USA do you compare "SPECTRE"
If you compare this year "SPECTRE" with similar movies, that is non-sci-fi, non-fantasy, then the 24th Bond film is already in a lead. Franchises like "Kingsman" and "U.N.C.L.E." are battling themselves, because they are the first movies of their franchises in the USA. "Mission: Impossible 4 - Ghost Protocol" is a pure American franchise, it always scores, and did so in 2011/2012. It had more or less the same theatre-count as "Skyfall": 3,500. But domestically it didn't gross more than $210 Million. Pale compared to "Skyfall"s $304 Million. "The Dark Knight"-franchise is finished, dead, over, done. And if you have to compare a Bond film with a Marvel-movie, then indeed "Iron Man" is a good example, and even "Captain America 2: The Winter Soldier", the latter being as dark and gritty as "Skyfall". Still, despite raving reviews, "Winter Soldier" grossed not more than $260 Million on a theatre-count of almost 4,000. And with inflation over 2014 prices, "Skyfall" in the USA looked even better!
The only real competitor for "SPECTRE" in a similar genre in my opinion is "Furious 7". And this 'Factor 3' is the prime reason why in this topic I have made a separate list of similar non-sci-fi, non-fantasy movies as compared to "SPECTRE".
Factor 4: China
Again, I fully agree with both you @bondjames & @Suivez_ce_parachute. Absolutely, the exchange rate history until now is far from flourishing for moneymakers in the European Union. But let's focus on China for now. We both now that the USA-economy is rapidly improving, and the Chinese economy....well, it doesn't slow down in a European fashion. Actually, the exchange rate history of 1 Chinese Yuan against US Dollars is way more interesting. It's more stable really:
And we all know that movie business between China and the USA is based on above exchange rate. Taking into account that during the past decade China has become way more important for American moviemakers -"Mission: Impossible 4 - Ghost Protocol" did excellent in China compared to "Skyfall", "Transformers: Age of Extinction" did better in China than in the USA, $301 Million (!!) compared to $245 Million-, you can bet on it that Sony will go full-throttle in securing at least $125 Million for "SPECTRE" in China. Sony has too, and once "SPECTRE" comes out around November in China as well, Sony can already start partying.
So as you can read, it's not only about the 1 Euro to Dollar exchange rate history. It's part of more complex "movie economics", in which the four above factors are equally important. These four factors and @Suivez_ce_parachute argument are all intertwined with each other. We all are carriers of parts of the truth I think. And so far, by taking this into account, I still think "SPECTRE" financially is going to impress us even more than "Skyfall" already did.
1. The SF buzz has helped Bond no doubt, but I suggest 2012 was a one-off. Bond is now 'back' in the US, but is not on par with Avengers and Star Wars, despite what the 'talking heads' in the press say. It is very unlikely to do much better than $300m. at most maybe $350m if lucky. Why? Since it's a spy movie - a thriller that is relatively serious and mature. Usually US moviegoers only give massive box office to more lighter fare, like Avengers. Additionally, with all the great spy stuff coming out in 2015, US moviegoers may actually be burned out by spy movies by the time SP comes along ('Oh here's another spy movie') at the end of the year, and may be more interested in SW.
2. Theatre count - I get your point here and I agree. The SP opening will exceed $100M most likely and it's more possible to be closer to $125M. However, SP is likely to 'burn out' much faster than SF did, because of the competition coming into the theatres before Christmas, including SW, and MI5. It's been my experience that very highly anticipated blockbusters tend not to have 'legs' and see quite a drop off in box office over the 2nd and 3rd weeks in particular. Bond has always been different because it operates in the US like a sleeper - through positive word of mouth, and it has traditionally had the whole Christmas period to itself with no direct competition. This year it will have MI5 to contend with, and keep in mind that MI5 and SW will definitely force a reduction in SP's theatre count once released.
3. Do not underestimate Cruise. He had to rebuild the franchise after MI3 did very poorly (compared to MI2). He did that with MI4 and the franchise is now back on track. I think MI5 will do very well and will eat into SP's box office. Yes, I think a lot of American moviegoers do see them as direct competitors btw and may even feel 'patriotic' towards MI5. We know nothing about MI5 yet, and I can assure you that Cruise is tweaking his production given all the SP leaks to try and surpass SP (he may even have a team reading through it and giving him pointers). He is very competitive and takes this seriously.
4. Yes, China will be big. SP will easily beat SF's China gross (how could it not - SF did crap in China). However, I think at best It's more likely to be on par with the $101M that MI4 did if at all. As I mentioned on another thread a while back, the Chinese like 'wham bang thank you ma'am' action, and that is not what SP is going to provide unfortunately.
You are correct that there are a lot of factors at play. That's what makes this exciting.
At the end of the day, I don't care how well SP does, as long as it's a good film and as long as I enjoy it.
I hope it does well because I want the franchise to thrive, but I have a sneaky feeling that it will not top SF due to the intense competition this year, the impact of the Euro/US exchange rate (which is really going to hurt European box office,, which was very good for SF), and the front-loading (which will burn the film out much faster than the gradual release that SF had, except in China, where it will help it). I think we'll be very fortunate to see overall $1bn.
Also, both of you forget again the Adele factor, which was IMO a very strong factor in the BO success of SF overseas.
This is very true.
"M:I 5" opens on Christmas Day when "Star Wars 7" is still up and running and going into its 2nd week. That's not an advantage at all. That's why Sony Pictures will be looking at both two productions. And in order to counteract a decay in holdover for SP in december, they want to "destroy" opening weekend November (higher theatre count, global release, 6th of November in UK too).
I agree with @Suivez_ce_parachute that the SonyLeaks were damaging. But right now you can only speculate what negative effect this will have on SP's success in China. If China moves the premiere to, let's say, January 2015, then it will do some damage.
And @Suivez_ce_parachute? Can yout please wash your sarcastic, negative, smelly anus....that in discussion with me is always pointed at my face?
I'm not really suggesting anything regards BO, I was responding to @bondjames sentiments about underestimating Cruise. He's a very savvy producer. MI:4 was a very, very good movie and Edge of Tomorrow was one of the stand out films of the year. Tom basically crafted EOT in the edit, showing he's not only a dependable actor, but knows how to put a damn good blockbuster together. SW will destroy everything in its path, but I think Tom will be going all out to trump SP with MI:5. He'd have to go some imo, but it's not inconceivable. If they deliver I imagine there will be a lot of SW/MI:5 double bills over the festive season.
EDIT: Just to confirm, when I say 'trump', I mean in terms of delivering a 'better' film, not necessarily a bigger haul at the box office.
It is not reasonable to assume that a Bond movie is necessarily going to pack everyone (or even the majority of its intended audience) into the theatres in the first week of release in the US, regardless of theatre count.
Bond does not traditionally work like that in the US. It skews towards a more mature audience, that tends to watch it when they get round to it. It's not quite like the Avengers/Star Wars fan boy crowd in the US, who must see it in week 1 or they will have a heart attack.
As I said above, I'm sure Bond will do very well in the opening two weeks due to the increased buzz after SF, the marketing machine & the theatre count. However, where I have concerns is that traditional 'late to the party crowd' that tends to come in during the later weeks may be distracted by other releases, including the aforementioned SW (that will be a juggernaut) and MI (that will bring in a lot of holiday business normally reserved for Bond). The fact that Bond will lose a lot of the premium theatres with the best sound by that time may also be a detractor (I know it would be for me).
As I said $300M to $350M tops, and that is me being optimistic. That's still one hell of a gross for Bond, since prior to SF, they topped out in the $160M range, and it's actually damn good for a spy thriller in the US as well.
One more thing. The Canadian $ has fallen by 20 to 25% against the US $. North American gross includes Canada, so it will also be impacted by the exchange rate negatively.
This will also be the case in the UK. SF was still pulling in punters in the UK in Jan, even early feb. SP will have to be outstanding for that to happen again, I feel.
I don't think SP will top SF - let's put it that way. So I think between $900m and $1bn tops. It could be a little below that but I am quite certain (primarily due to exchange rate problems and the competition which was not present in 2012) that it won't be above that.
Predicting is always difficult @bondjames ;-). Because you can either "win" or "loose" with it. That's the charm of it. Be daring.....and if you're wrong in the end....be open to admit it.
In any case....I stand with my earlier prediction.
For the anecdote, the first GE screenplay started with an helicopter chasing a high speed train.. inside a tunnel. A mere few months before M:I :)
I did not know that @Suivez_ce_parachute. So why did it not make the final draft of GE (which came out before MI)? Was it a budget problem (I know GE was very budget constrained)?
PS: I saw the news today. My deepest condolencies regarding what happened in Paris. Hope you are safe and that they find the perpetrators quickly.
I've got no problem related to the tragedy. On the other hand Lea Seydoux has to do her first scenes today it seems...
The potential "1 Billion"-ers. And I'm gonna be bold:
01) 1.850 - 2.050 Billion: "Star Wars 7: The Force Awakens":
THE event film of the year where everyone is looking forward to. I've kind of underestimated this film, as "Star Wars" got a slightly negative image with Lucas at the helm. But this directly follows "Star Wars 6: Return Of The Jedi". A potential 2 Billion Dollar film, like "Titanic" (1997) and "Avatar" (2009)
02) 1.725 - 1.875 Billion: "Marvel's Avengers 2: Age Of Ultron":
This will be a big one too. Many have "Avengers 2" and "Star Wars 7" fighting for 2 Billion Dollar or at least the top spot. Why 2nd? It hasn't got the buzz that "Wars 7" has, it's more of a 'normal' sequel.
03) 1.150 - 1.250 Billion: "Bond 24: SPECTRE":
True, "Skyfall" was profiting from the 50th anniversary, but still many Bond fans underestimate the film's good reviews. They were as good as "Casino Royale" and brought even new fans to the cinemas. Director Sam Mendes brings a lot of new fans into the Bond-franchise as well. And this also goes for actors Christoph Waltz ("Inglorious Basterds") and Dave Bautista ("Guardians Of The Galaxy"). If there is going to be a non-sci-fi, non-fantasy film breaking the $ 1.2 Billion in a year without a Nolan film premiering this year, then it will be "SPECTRE".
$345 Million: Total Domestic Gross ($120 Million: Domestic Opening Weekend )
$855 Million: Total Foreign Gross ($105 Million: Total China Gross)
04) 0.950 - 1.100 Billion: "Minions":
Ever since "Despicale Me" premiered, everyone loved Gru's little henchmen: The Minions. These Minions went viral, on Facebook, Twitter, you name it. Off course they'll get their own film now, and this will bring in all these Minions-fans.
05) 0.875 - 1.025 Billion: "Furious 7":
Sadly Paul Walker tragically passed away. We saw what it can do to films like "The Dark Knight". As a means of showing respect, people will see the film as well. Also, the last two "Furious"-films benefited from a rather good screenplay and some emotional dept.
Potential films grossing over $750 Million worldwide:
06) 850 - 925 Million: "Jurassic World":
Regardless what people think of it, I think it's not like the previous 3 Jurassic Park-films. It's more a Godzilla-esque movie, thus very much an event film that has to be seen on the big screen. The first trailer was received very well.
07) 850 - 900 Million: "The Hunger Hames 4: Mockingjay - Part 2":
It'll profit from being the last film of the franchise, though the darkness and underground-style of "Mockingjay Part 1" won't make this a 1 Billion Dollar film.
08) 750 - 825 Million: "The Good Dinosaur":
The 2nd Pixar-film of the year, but IMO the one that can appeal slightly better to family audiences than the more intelligently crafted "Inside Out".
09) 725 - 800 Million: "Cinderella":
Disney live-action movies with beautifully crafted CGI-environments are kind of popular now. Think of the ill-received, but box office success "Maleficent", but also "Alice In Wonderland" and "Oz: The Great And The Powerful".
10) 700 - 775 Million: "Inside Out":
First Pixar movie of the year directed and written by Pete Docter, who also did "Up" and "WALL-E". This will be a great success for Disney-Pixar, though I have the feeling that less-smart, more easy-to-grasp animated movies score better.
And the rest:
11) 675 - 725 Million: "Tomorrowland"
12) 650 - 700 Million: "Mission Impossible 5"
13) 575 - 675 Million: "Fifty Shades Of Grey"
14) 500 - 550 Million: "The Jungle Book"
15) 425 - 525 Million: "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
16) 400 - 500 Million: "Marvel's Ant-Man"
17) 400 - 500 Million: "Ted 2"
18) 375 - 475 Million: "Marvel's The Fantastic Four"
19) 325 - 450 Million: "Peanuts"
20) 325 - 425 Million: "Mad Max 4: Fury Road"
21) 300 - 375 Million: "Terminator 5: Genisys"