The Next American President Thread (2016)

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  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,487
    Don t worry. Bush Senior will get him killed if he wins.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited September 2016 Posts: 23,883
    I can appreciate many disliking Trump. However, the analysis on him has been incorrect on many levels. It is not just 'the angry' that are supporting him, and it's also just not those who are lower down the income scale, even though that makes up a large component of his support.

    I have seen surveys that have shown that he has support from many who are reasonably well off, but who have more manufacturing type careers. These include many small business owners in the type of industries that have been impacted by the trade deals he rails against in the swing states. One can argue that these folks are not 'intellectuals', but that doesn't mean they are all 'angry white' voters, which is the caricature we hear a lot.

    The key point over the past month or so (which has helped to close the polls) has been the 'coming home' of a lot of Republicans who were on the fence about him previously. This includes highly educated folks. The John Sununus and Ted Cruzs of this world. We will likely see more of them prior to the end of this campaign. Of course there are the 'Never Trumpites' who will never come on board because they were invested in other candidates and visions.

    It's the combination of that natural Republican coalescing, the relative lack of enthusiasm (compared with 4 and 8 yrs ago) among millennials for Clinton, the peeling away of minority voters that has begun to occur on account of Trump's outreach (hence the 'rebirth' of birtherism as a side show all of a sudden), and the strong support Trump has among white voters, which is explaining his current poll surge. Fundamentally though it is the difference in enthusiasm for Clinton vs Obama.

    A lot of Trump's support also comes from those who dislike or mistrust Clinton and the Clintons. This was known ahead of time though, as she has always been a polarizing candidate. I've always said that a 'Biden' would have likely walked away with this by now.
  • bondjames wrote: »
    I can appreciate many disliking Trump. However, the analysis on him has been incorrect on many levels. It is not just 'the angry' that are supporting him, and it's also just not those who are lower down the income scale, even though that makes up a large component of his support.

    I have seen surveys that have shown that he has support from many who are reasonably well off, but who have more manufacturing type careers. These include many small business owners in the type of industries that have been impacted by the trade deals he rails against in the swing states. One can argue that these folks are not 'intellectuals', but that doesn't mean they are all 'angry white' voters, which is the caricature we hear a lot.

    The key point over the past month or so (which has helped to close the polls) has been the 'coming home' of a lot of Republicans who were on the fence about him previously. This includes highly educated folks. The John Sununus and Ted Cruzs of this world. We will likely see more of them prior to the end of this campaign. Of course there are the 'Never Trumpites' who will never come on board because they were invested in other candidates and visions.

    It's the combination of that natural Republican coalescing, the relative lack of enthusiasm (compared with 4 and 8 yrs ago) among millennials for Clinton, the peeling away of minority voters that has begun to occur on account of Trump's outreach (hence the 'rebirth' of birtherism as a side show all of a sudden), and the strong support Trump has among white voters, which is explaining his current poll surge. Fundamentally though it is the difference in enthusiasm for Clinton vs Obama.

    A lot of Trump's support also comes from those who dislike or mistrust Clinton and the Clintons. This was known ahead of time though, as she has always been a polarizing candidate. I've always said that a 'Biden' would have likely walked away with this by now.

    You are right when you are saying that Republicans....self-identified Republicans are now 'coming home' and are, reluctantly, supporting Trump. But make no mistake, most of these Republicans are older Republicans.....not so much 'millennials'.

    And while Trump and Obama both had a very enthusiastic fanbase showing up for them and willing to vote for them, there's the difference that Trump's base are older, and Obama's base basically are millennials.

    That's why Monday's debate was so important. Despite the fact that slowly more people than just 'Trumpites' were supporting him, but the incredible high amount of independents and undecided are actually mainly 'millennials'; young voters who have more affiliation with Stein and Johnson. Those youngsters last Monday -I think- went to Hillary's column. They have seen how realistic it has become that Trump actually could become president.

    And although Clinton won't get the same number of millennials to the voting box as Obama did, she at least got a large chunk of it, while Trump actually faltered in attracting these undecided.

    I wouldn't be surprised that Clinton therefore won't get a small 2% bounce in the polls later this week, but instead, because of this debate and undecideds coalescing more around Clinton, a relatively larger 5% or 6% bounce. Let's see what happens....
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited September 2016 Posts: 23,883
    From my perspective, neither Trump nor Clinton did much to attract millennials in that debate. I expected much more from Clinton in particular, given the free college etc.

    I think the 'trust' issue is her fundamental problem, along with seeming 'rehearsed', and that was on display during the debate as well.

    At the end of the day, both campaigns are now in micro targetting mode, and this will continue to election day. Clinton has the benefit of several heavy hitters on her side (Bill, Bernie, Michelle, Joe, Barack) and this may be enough to swing it. Time will tell.

    The Democrats have the demographic advantage and it's inherent, so they really should have this in the bag. It's their candidate who is under performing relative to that inbuilt advantage.
  • Posts: 1,296
    Well guys I watched the whole debate, very entertaining, I find the body language interesting, and I ate a whole toblerone the whole time. I don't have any breathtaking commentary though.
  • Posts: 7,424
    @bondjames

    Nobody was claiming that only low income voters support Trump. There´s no surprise in the fact that entrepeneurs and wannabe entrepeneurs would support the visions of a right wing populist. He plays into their hands. What is shocking and bizarre though is that he has managed to pretend to be the spokesperson of the average, American working class, their protector. It doesn´t make sense at all.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited September 2016 Posts: 23,883
    @jobo, the misunderstanding people have is thinking in absolutes. It's about 'relative' decisions.

    Indeed Trump is not fundamentally a protector of the working class in the Bernie Sanders mode. He is as 'capitalist' as they come. Many who support him (of course not all, but the more educated and knowledgeable) are fully aware of that. This was confirmed during surveys in the primary.

    Having said that, there is a large component of the populace who think he will do a better job of it than Clinton (or Bush, or Cruz, or Rubio etc. etc.). That is the crux of the matter. It's because he is able to speak out freely, when the others could not and cannot.
  • Posts: 1,296
    Trump is the poster boy of all that is wrong with capitalism.
  • Posts: 7,424
    bondjames wrote: »
    @jobo, the misunderstanding people have is thinking in absolutes. It's about 'relative' decisions.

    Indeed Trump is not fundamentally a protector of the working class in the Bernie Sanders mode. He is as 'capitalist' as they come. Many who support him (of course not all, but the more educated and knowledgeable) are fully aware of that. This was confirmed during surveys in the primary.

    Having said that, there is a large component of the populace who think he will do a better job of it than Clinton (or Bush, or Cruz, or Rubio etc. etc.). That is the crux of the matter. It's because he is able to speak out freely, when the others could not and cannot.


    Exactly, and that is where the outright stupidity comes in. And the brainwashed American mantra of "if I pay less taxes I could get rich unlike all these other loosers". Every body for themselves, poverty is a sign of weakness. It is both naive, elitist and cynical at the same time, and it has put American wellfare in the stone ages compared to the rest of the civilised world.

    In Norway we have a saying: "To shoot your own foot". That is what most Trump supporters are doing.
  • edited September 2016 Posts: 2,341
    Trump will breathe a sigh of relief when he is beaten in a landslide come November...

    HE DOESN'T WANT THE JOB, BUT HIS EGO WILL NOT ALLOW HIM TO DROP OUT.


    His supporters are so ill advised, misinformed, brainwashed and too stupid to realize what a buffoon he is. I work with a janitor who wants to vote for Trump. A janitor? not that there's anything wrong with being a janitor but does he really think that the Trumpster gives a flying monkey left testicle about him? Maybe he believes that Trump will get him a job as a Wall Street hedge fund manager making seven figures and the people of color and green card immigrants can do the janitorial job that he leave when he moves to Wall Street. yeah, right.


  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,487
    So Trump is the choice of the janitors?
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    Does this make all janitors deplorable?
  • 0BradyM0Bondfanatic70BradyM0Bondfanatic7 Quantum Floral Arrangements: "We Have Petals Everywhere"
    Posts: 28,651
    Trump cleans up with the janitors, even if Hillary mops the floor with him.
  • Posts: 1,296
    Janitors are squeaky clean, they know dirt when they see it, put soap in their mouths they taste it, Trump.
  • I want this for the title of the next Bond film: THE JANITOR WHO LOVED ME. I suppose it's better than THE JANITOR WHO VOTED FOR ME...
  • 0BradyM0Bondfanatic70BradyM0Bondfanatic7 Quantum Floral Arrangements: "We Have Petals Everywhere"
    Posts: 28,651
    I want this for the title of the next Bond film: THE JANITOR WHO LOVED ME. I suppose it's better than THE JANITOR WHO VOTED FOR ME...

    Bond infiltrates what's left of the SPECTRE organization by posing as their headquarter's floor cleaner.
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,487
    That guy in OHMSS whistling GF...I will always see him as a Trump supporter now.

    And the Devil s Hand in LTK votes for Clinton/Bush/Rubio/Obama/Crux
  • edited September 2016 Posts: 107
    Hillary is the female Blofeld. She's evil. I am definitely voting for Trump. He will be the first Cro-Magnon to hold office. Way better than fat Merkel Part 2.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited September 2016 Posts: 23,883
    I've said before that she reminds me very much of Rosa Klebb (better than Bunt I suppose). Trump reminds me of Goldfinger.
  • Posts: 107
    They say Hillary kinda pulled a Goldfinger Miami card cheating thing during the debate with hand signals to the moderator.

    http://rightwingnews.com/hillary-clinton-2/poker-pro-agrees-hillary-utilized-hand-signals-communicate-debate-moderator-holt/
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,487
    I use hand signals to the cops here all the time.
  • bondjames wrote: »
    Does this make all janitors deplorable?

    I think 'deplorable' is a wonderful, lovely word. Phonetically much nicer to my ears than, let's say 'crooked' or 'miss piggy'.

    I wouldn't call all of Trump's supporters 'deplorables'. But I think we know very damn well who are deplorables these days and who are not. The funny thing is, so many people rise up their seats when they hear this word...and therefore unconsciously admit at least some tiny bit of guilt into behaving 'deplorable' at times :-).



  • Not all Trump supporters are deplorables, but all deplorables who are bothering to vote are voting for Trump.
  • Chang wrote: »
    They say Hillary kinda pulled a Goldfinger Miami card cheating thing during the debate with hand signals to the moderator.

    http://rightwingnews.com/hillary-clinton-2/poker-pro-agrees-hillary-utilized-hand-signals-communicate-debate-moderator-holt/

    At least this site announces their bias right there in their name.
  • Not all Trump supporters are deplorables, but all deplorables who are bothering to vote are voting for Trump.

    True....I always say this:

    Only a tiny portion of Trump supporters are real racists. But all racists in the USA will most likely vote for Trump. And the latter is worrysome. I do not wish to be voting for someone that real racists will choose to vote for as well.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    bondjames wrote: »
    Does this make all janitors deplorable?
    I think 'deplorable' is a wonderful, lovely word. Phonetically much nicer to my ears than, let's say 'crooked' or 'miss piggy'.
    The fundamental problem with that remark is that it cast a portion of the American electorate with a 'brand'. Reinforced an 'us' and 'them' mentality which a portion of the electorate believes exists already (the haves and have nots etc.).

    That's different from commenting on one's opponent (e.g. crooked) or a specific person one has a problem with (e.g. piggy).

    It was a broad judgement on a large portion of the electorate. In that respect it was similar to Romney's remarks from 4 years ago. Time will tell whether the damage has been lasting or irreversible.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,289
    Trump's Trailer...
  • bondjames wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    Does this make all janitors deplorable?
    I think 'deplorable' is a wonderful, lovely word. Phonetically much nicer to my ears than, let's say 'crooked' or 'miss piggy'.
    The fundamental problem with that remark is that it cast a portion of the American electorate with a 'brand'. Reinforced an 'us' and 'them' mentality which a portion of the electorate believes exists already (the haves and have nots etc.).

    That's different from commenting on one's opponent (e.g. crooked) or a specific person one has a problem with (e.g. piggy).

    It was a broad judgement on a large portion of the electorate. In that respect it was similar to Romney's remarks from 4 years ago. Time will tell whether the damage has been lasting or irreversible.

    You couldn't read, hear or see......a bit of an eyewink in my post ;-)?

    Usually I respond with sheer seriousness. This is one of the rare occasions that it is the other way around :-).
  • Posts: 315
    bondjames wrote: »
    bondjames wrote: »
    Does this make all janitors deplorable?
    I think 'deplorable' is a wonderful, lovely word. Phonetically much nicer to my ears than, let's say 'crooked' or 'miss piggy'.
    The fundamental problem with that remark is that it cast a portion of the American electorate with a 'brand'. Reinforced an 'us' and 'them' mentality which a portion of the electorate believes exists already (the haves and have nots etc.).

    That's different from commenting on one's opponent (e.g. crooked) or a specific person one has a problem with (e.g. piggy).

    It was a broad judgement on a large portion of the electorate. In that respect it was similar to Romney's remarks from 4 years ago. Time will tell whether the damage has been lasting or irreversible.

    You couldn't read, hear or see......a bit of an eyewink in my post ;-)?

    Usually I respond with sheer seriousness. This is one of the rare occasions that it is the other way around :-).

    You're so right, Gustav. But when you live in your own little universe of colleges not attended and apartments in different countries and wind up sitting on your mattress in the basement of your parents home, you can be dodgy. Back to the real world.

    Trump is running out of 'white, uneducated males' who support him. He's 20 points behind Romney's numbers and that's his base. He's dead with blacks, Hispanics and older educated white women. The remaining demos are older educated white males and educated younger women. His ceiling is 43-44%.

    Don't be so confused with the polls that show support for Trump. Polls are conducted by phone, during the day to landlines only. There are no mall intercepts or door-to-door canvassing. So if you have a cellphone only or got to work in an office during the day, you can't be polled.

    Be prepared for the story of Trump's company doing business with Castro thru Seven Arrows in the late 1990's. Violating the embargo. Bad boy.

    Lastly, my sources tell me that the Trump kids are pushing Roger Ailes away from the campaign. He coached Trump before the first debate until the final few days when the kids stepped in. Their biggest fear is that Ailes and his sex problems will negate any salvo at Hillary and Bill's affairs. If Trump drops the sex bomb stories, they don't want Ailes anywhere near it. I have my credentials for the next debate at WashU in St. Louis. I will take notes.
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