NTTD & Corona

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  • Junglist_1985Junglist_1985 Los Angeles
    edited September 2020 Posts: 1,006
    jake24 wrote: »
    I don’t think we should rule out a limited theatrical release followed by PVOD shortly after. That gives Bond fans and film buffs two-three weeks to watch it in cinemas, and the rest of the world won’t have to wait too long to watch it safely at home.

    I believe the only way to launch this year is a staggered theatre release and a PVOD release simultaneously.

    Totally agree! I’m guessing 3-4 weeks Nov/Dec theatrical run for the brave die-hards/cinema buffs (wherever possible in the world). Then, PVOD out just in time for the Christmas holiday — maybe $19.99 - $24.99 one time rental or thereabouts. And then a theatrical re-release in late 2021/2022 for those who missed the first run with emphasis on IMAX experience.
  • RedNineRedNine Poland
    Posts: 71
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Meanwhile....... in China:

    "Maoyan Research Institute on Sept. 1 released a report summarizing the first stage of cinemas reopening, which lasted for 43 days, revealing a revived movie market in China.

    After about 6 weeks of reopening, around 75% of all Chinese cinemas have resumed operations"
    https://pandaily.com/43-days-after-re-opening-chinese-movie-theaters-see-new-life/
    gZxZxcr.jpg

    Well China isn't exactly known for their honesty and trustworthiness
  • jake24 wrote: »
    I don’t think we should rule out a limited theatrical release followed by PVOD shortly after. That gives Bond fans and film buffs two-three weeks to watch it in cinemas, and the rest of the world won’t have to wait too long to watch it safely at home.

    I believe the only way to launch this year is a staggered theatre release and a PVOD release simultaneously.

    Totally agree! I’m guessing 3-4 weeks Nov/Dec theatrical run for the brave die-hards/cinema buffs (wherever possible in the world). Then, PVOD out just in time for the Christmas holiday — maybe $19.99 - $24.99 one time rental or thereabouts. And then a theatrical re-release in late 2021/2022 for those who missed the first run with emphasis on IMAX experience.

    This plan is WAY too reasonable. What are you doing posting on this thread???
  • Posts: 3,164
    And Disney just brought down the gauntlet
  • Junglist_1985Junglist_1985 Los Angeles
    edited September 2020 Posts: 1,006
    I think question becomes do they actually announce a PVOD option coming just weeks after the theatrical release or do they just drop the news in Dec?
  • What do Disney know that MGM/Anapurna/Universal don't ?
  • Posts: 3,164
    I think question becomes do they actually announce a PVOD option coming just weeks after the theatrical release or do they just drop the news in Dec?

    Unless it's PVOD instead of cinema release - probably not. Two factors - Universal's 17 day deal actually prohibits them from announcing a PVOD drop until week 2. 2. The Mulan PVOD underperformance is apparently attributed to Disney announcing it will be available for free in December
  • Posts: 3,161
    RedNine wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Meanwhile....... in China:

    "Maoyan Research Institute on Sept. 1 released a report summarizing the first stage of cinemas reopening, which lasted for 43 days, revealing a revived movie market in China.

    After about 6 weeks of reopening, around 75% of all Chinese cinemas have resumed operations"
    https://pandaily.com/43-days-after-re-opening-chinese-movie-theaters-see-new-life/
    gZxZxcr.jpg

    Well China isn't exactly known for their honesty and trustworthiness
    I saw that comment coming a mile away. If the numbers a bogus, how does that explain that everyday life is largely back to normal and that 75% of all theatres a month ago had reopened? Why aren't the hospitals overcrowded?
    "Aug23. In China, Where the Pandemic Began, Life Is Starting to Look … Normal
    Markets, bars and restaurants are crowded again. Local virus transmissions are near zero"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus-normal-life.html
    "23.sep.Irishman living in China says life is back to normal there"
    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0923/1166979-coronavirus-china/
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,564
    Agreed, Mulan's PVOD underperformance is probably to blame for much of Disney's decisions at this point in time. What does Disney know that MGM doesn't? Disney knows that they've got revenue coming from a LOT of different directions besides theatrical releases. I suspect Mouse tchotchkes are an increasingly large percentage of current Disney revenue now that theatrical $$$ has fallen off so dramatically. This puts Disney in a ballpark that MGM only wishes they could play in. Warners is still insisting that Wonder Woman '84 will be out in (late) December 2020. We'll see. I suspect that MGM doesn't have any other choices besides releasing NTTD in November. Maybe there are contractual obligations to the product placement people... maybe the bankers are needing to see some return on their investments NOW... maybe folks at MGM are needing a quick infusion of cash themselves right now. I don't pretend to know the answers, I can only pose a few logical questions. The one question that keeps coming to my mind is: why do fans who really have no financial stake in this matter keep insisting that now is the WORST POSSIBLE MOMENT TO RELEASE THIS FILM OHMIGAWD PLEASE DON'T DO IT YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!???
  • tonesmalones09tonesmalones09 Minneapolis
    Posts: 28
    The one question that keeps coming to my mind is: why do fans who really have no financial stake in this matter keep insisting that now is the WORST POSSIBLE MOMENT TO RELEASE THIS FILM OHMIGAWD PLEASE DON'T DO IT YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!???

    Well I think we want the film to succeed and make money, so releasing the film theatrically when theaters are reducing showtimes (or not even open) and countries are rolling out new restrictions already in September, some of us feel like a November release could be a disaster. idk just one guy's opinion. I get there's not one easy answer too, but I don't think people raising legit concerns should be mocked and ridiculed.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 40,372
    The one question that keeps coming to my mind is: why do fans who really have no financial stake in this matter keep insisting that now is the WORST POSSIBLE MOMENT TO RELEASE THIS FILM OHMIGAWD PLEASE DON'T DO IT YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!???

    Well I think we want the film to succeed and make money, so releasing the film theatrically when theaters are reducing showtimes (or not even open) and countries are rolling out new restrictions already in September, some of us feel like a November release could be a disaster. idk just one guy's opinion. I get there's not one easy answer too, but I don't think people raising legit concerns should be mocked and ridiculed.

    This. Seems rather obvious to me. None of us are stakeholders but we obviously want films from our favorite franchise to succeed. Releasing the film in the midst of a pandemic, when it's only getting worse in places like the UK and lots of U.S. theaters are still unopened, where theaters won't even be remotely close to full capacity, is simply a bad idea. It's why everyone else is delaying.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,686
    75% of France is now back in red zones where the outbreak is getting exponentially out of control. The last 2 Bond films made $60 million and $39 million there, respectively. We are still nowhere near having a proper US box office market, where SF made $304 million and SP made $200 million. If the situation gets very serious in the UK, we would also lose a market where SF made $161 million and SP made $124 million.

    We can argue all day long about China's corona numbers, but SF made $59 million there, and SP made $83 million. If this were to be the only big market in November, NTTD would be, by far, the lowest grossing Bond film in the entire franchise. I do not think that is what anyone had in mind in late 2019 concerning Daniel Craig's final Bond film.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,009
    They're damned if they do, and damned if they don't at this point. 2021 looks to be wedged and it'll be a long time before the box office hits any highs that are even close to what they were pre-covid.
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,564
    As I've noted earlier, nobody's going to "blame" the Bond franchise for bringing in less than a billion dollars in the middle of a pandemic. Bond films will continue to be made as long as the movie industry continues to exist -- and if your local theater doesn't get fannies in the furniture SOON, that eventuality is closer than any of us care to credit. A scenario in which NTTD just barely breaks even, but is instrumental in allowing thousands of theaters to remain open, is a fairly realistic possibility to my mind. In that eventuality, Bond 26 (and 27 and so on) will continue to be produced, albeit with significantly less extravagant budgets. Holding the release of NTTD until the spectre of COVID-19 is no longer an issue seems to me more of a recipe for the cessation of the Bond series than does releasing it now and counting on its limited success to bolster the flagging fortunes of the movie industry as we know it. And such is the voice of optimism here in 2020... of course, I'm in California, where "Apocalypse Now" is more than the title of an old movie by Francis Ford Coppola...
  • Posts: 3,161
    Numbers...
    The vaccine is probably a year away, so postpone NTTD to November 2021 or even later?
    It's not going away anytime soon.

    But all over Europe the death rates are extremely low now, compared to the months after it broke out. Mainly due to well-functioning healthcare systems. Maybe Covid-19 will be the same story as AIDS. You can't eradicate it, but medication can keep you alive or prevent you from dying.

    The widespread panic and fear seen months ago was because a lot of people died. But that's not where we are right now. Even the US is catching up. The death rates have been declining since the beginning of August there.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,686
    Have NTTD out in cinemas in October then. It may be the last month I can see it on the big screen in 2020. It's either that, or delay it to 2021.
  • tonesmalones09tonesmalones09 Minneapolis
    Posts: 28
    As I've noted earlier, nobody's going to "blame" the Bond franchise for bringing in less than a billion dollars in the middle of a pandemic. Bond films will continue to be made as long as the movie industry continues to exist -- and if your local theater doesn't get fannies in the furniture SOON, that eventuality is closer than any of us care to credit. A scenario in which NTTD just barely breaks even, but is instrumental in allowing thousands of theaters to remain open, is a fairly realistic possibility to my mind. In that eventuality, Bond 26 (and 27 and so on) will continue to be produced, albeit with significantly less extravagant budgets. Holding the release of NTTD until the spectre of COVID-19 is no longer an issue seems to me more of a recipe for the cessation of the Bond series than does releasing it now and counting on its limited success to bolster the flagging fortunes of the movie industry as we know it. And such is the voice of optimism here in 2020... of course, I'm in California, where "Apocalypse Now" is more than the title of an old movie by Francis Ford Coppola...

    This all very well be true (although I think the notion that one film is going to save cinemas has been disproven by Tenet. More likely that cinemas will need to be saved by government funding. I also think the fact that other studios are pushing to 2021 shows that they at least have some faith in theatrical releases being viable in the future. that's maybe my optimism showing). I just think raising concerns about a November theatrical release are valid as well. As you previously stated, we're all speculating at this point. No need to squash other's views as stupid or invalid just because you see it another way. As each day passes there seems to be more and more reasons why November is becoming untenable, but you're right, we don't know for sure.

  • WillyGalore_ReduxWillyGalore_Redux I like my beer cold, my TV loud and my homosexuals flaaaaaaming
    edited September 2020 Posts: 294
    I've waited 5 years for a new Bond film and if it means I have to wait another year...or more, then so be it. Its not the end of the world.
    I'd be more concerned if NTTD was halted in mid production or even pre production with the possibility of being postponed full stop. But it's not. The film is done and in the can and it's just a matter of waiting for the best possible window to get shown in cinemas to the widest number of audiences.

    I'm old enough to remember the torrid years following Licence To Kill, with the ongoing legal issues between EON and MGM and not knowing if another Bond film would be made ever again and for a long time, I'd given up hope until news broke of GoldenEye in '94.

    So relax, it'll get released as soon as it can.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited September 2020 Posts: 4,343
    I suspect that MGM doesn't have any other choices besides releasing NTTD in November. Maybe there are contractual obligations to the product placement people... maybe the bankers are needing to see some return on their investments NOW... maybe folks at MGM are needing a quick infusion of cash themselves right now. I don't pretend to know the answers, I can only pose a few logical questions. The one question that keeps coming to my mind is: why do fans who really have no financial stake in this matter keep insisting that now is the WORST POSSIBLE MOMENT TO RELEASE THIS FILM OHMIGAWD PLEASE DON'T DO IT YOU'LL BE SORRY!!!???

    Yes, they are in a position where they basically have no choice. It’s the only logical reason.

    Regarding you’re question... uhm, because that’s true..? I’m the kind of guy that takes a plane to London just to see the film day one (did it with SP and SF) but seeing it now with a mask on my face for 3 hours, with people around coughing and sneezing because we’ll be in bloody winter and cases will inevitably increase, having to risk quarantine if someone in my theater will test positive for whatever reason in the coming days... right now it’s not something I really look forward to.

    Now would be fine, given the fact that for now Italy is doing great, after being hitten harder than any other country in the first place, but with colder temperatures approaching and schools reopening it’s gonna be far worse, in a couple of months.
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Numbers...
    The vaccine is probably a year away, so postpone NTTD to November 2021 or even later?
    It's not going away anytime soon.

    But all over Europe the death rates are extremely low now, compared to the months after it broke out. Mainly due to well-functioning healthcare systems. Maybe Covid-19 will be the same story as AIDS. You can't eradicate it, but medication can keep you alive or prevent you from dying.

    The widespread panic and fear seen months ago was because a lot of people died. But that's not where we are right now. Even the US is catching up. The death rates have been declining since the beginning of August there.

    Are you really comparing a coronavirus with an immunodeficiency virus?
    XD
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 3,564

    More likely that cinemas will need to be saved by government funding.

    @Tones, please forgive me editing out everything but the point I want to respond to. Just striving for clarity here...

    The possibility of "government funding" aiding the cinemas is unlikely under the current office-holders. (After the November elections is anybody's guess.) Consider the culture war being stoked by parties who shall remain unnamed here. Movie-makers (and therefore sellers) are part of the cultural "elite" being denounced routinely by you-know-who. I don't expect any govt. aid to be flowing their way anytime in the next few months.
  • tonesmalones09tonesmalones09 Minneapolis
    Posts: 28

    More likely that cinemas will need to be saved by government funding.

    @Tones, please forgive me editing out everything but the point I want to respond to. Just striving for clarity here...

    The possibility of "government funding" aiding the cinemas is unlikely under the current office-holders. (After the November elections is anybody's guess.) Consider the culture war being stoked by parties who shall remain unnamed here. Movie-makers (and therefore sellers) are part of the cultural "elite" being denounced routinely by you-know-who. I don't expect any govt. aid to be flowing their way anytime in the next few months.

    Yeah, I wasn't commenting on the likelihood of it happening, just that it's likely the only real thing that will save cinemas. I would hope for some sort fo relief for cinemas, live theater, smaller concert venues, etc. but I also do not hold my breath for that to occur any time soon.

    NTTD alone coming out in 2-ish months isn't likely to "save cinemas" though. No 1 movie is going to do that. Cinemas need multiple films coming out one after another to remain viable. So I guess posing Bond as cinema's savior doesn't ring true to me.

    If we're talking about NTTD coming out in November as a loss-saving strategy rather than a profitable endeavor, than I think it's a mistake to think of it as a possible cinema saver. Doesn't feel like it can be both.
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 12,916
    I get there's not one easy answer too, but I don't think people raising legit concerns should be mocked and ridiculed.

    That sentiment should apply in all directions.
  • DoctorNoDoctorNo USA-Maryland
    Posts: 754
    If NTTD comes out and tanks, as others have pointed out, it won't kill the franchise, it will only possibly lead to a smaller budget for B26, which will force better writing, which I only see as a win-win. Release this thing. Get moving on B26. To me that should be every fan's hope, not fretting over box office returns (for rich people).
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 5,921
    Don't forget MGW is a lawyer, and may take a conservative approach to releasing the film.
  • Posts: 3,161
    matt_u wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Numbers...
    The vaccine is probably a year away, so postpone NTTD to November 2021 or even later?
    It's not going away anytime soon.

    But all over Europe the death rates are extremely low now, compared to the months after it broke out. Mainly due to well-functioning healthcare systems. Maybe Covid-19 will be the same story as AIDS. You can't eradicate it, but medication can keep you alive or prevent you from dying.

    The widespread panic and fear seen months ago was because a lot of people died. But that's not where we are right now. Even the US is catching up. The death rates have been declining since the beginning of August there.

    Are you really comparing a coronavirus with an immunodeficiency virus?
    XD
    Me? No.... I leave that up to someone who knows better than both you and I ;-)
    "For so many, never before has a disease been so little understood and so greatly feared.

    For others, there is a precedent event: the HIV epidemic.

    In the final segment of an interview with Contagion during International AIDS Society (IAS) AIDS 2020 Virtual Sessions this week, Cathy Creticos, MD, Director of Infectious Disease at Howard Brown Health, discussed the similarities and disparities of the COVID-19 pandemic and the HIV epidemic of the 1980s and early ‘90s."
    https://www.contagionlive.com/news/covid19-vs-hiv-how-the-epidemics-compare
  • Posts: 1,394
    There have been rising cases here in Ireland but cinemas are still running as normal.I do hope NTTD is released in cinemas in November.Without big blockbusters coming out ,theaters will not survive and there will be no cinemas to show NTTD next year if it is delayed again.Best to go all in.Worst comes to worst they can make it available on PVOD a few weeks after release.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Zekidk wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    Zekidk wrote: »
    Numbers...
    The vaccine is probably a year away, so postpone NTTD to November 2021 or even later?
    It's not going away anytime soon.

    But all over Europe the death rates are extremely low now, compared to the months after it broke out. Mainly due to well-functioning healthcare systems. Maybe Covid-19 will be the same story as AIDS. You can't eradicate it, but medication can keep you alive or prevent you from dying.

    The widespread panic and fear seen months ago was because a lot of people died. But that's not where we are right now. Even the US is catching up. The death rates have been declining since the beginning of August there.

    Are you really comparing a coronavirus with an immunodeficiency virus?
    XD
    Me? No.... I leave that up to someone who knows better than both you and I ;-)
    "For so many, never before has a disease been so little understood and so greatly feared.

    For others, there is a precedent event: the HIV epidemic.

    In the final segment of an interview with Contagion during International AIDS Society (IAS) AIDS 2020 Virtual Sessions this week, Cathy Creticos, MD, Director of Infectious Disease at Howard Brown Health, discussed the similarities and disparities of the COVID-19 pandemic and the HIV epidemic of the 1980s and early ‘90s."
    https://www.contagionlive.com/news/covid19-vs-hiv-how-the-epidemics-compare

    “You can't eradicate it, but medication can keep you alive or prevent you from dying”. Knock knock: in most of the cases you can totally eradicate it, just like a normal flu.
  • GadgetManGadgetMan Lagos, Nigeria
    edited September 2020 Posts: 4,247
    Wow! what I find amazing is, there's a pandemic going on, but the Chinese Historical War film-The Eight Hundred has made 425 million so far, with a budget of 80 million...it also has very positive reviews and this film was released in August like Tenet. I don't know....but maybe the success of this Chinese film is what's giving EON confidence ahead of NTTD's November release.
  • GadgetMan wrote: »
    Wow! what I find amazing is, there's a pandemic going on, but the Chinese Historical War film-The Eight Hundred has made 425 million so far, with a budget of 80 million...it also has very positive reviews and this film was released in August like Tenet. I don't know....but maybe the success of this Chinese film is what's giving EON confidence ahead of NTTD's November release.

    If there's one place where cinemas are not as threatened with closure right now, it's China. I wonder if NTTD can break $100 million as the appetite for Bond has been growing with each new film. In any case, I imagine the top 10 grossing films in the world each year will soon be dominated by Chinese films.
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