'No Time to Die' at the box office in 2̶0̶1̶9̶ ̶ 2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶ 2021

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Comments

  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    edited September 2020 Posts: 8,951
    Not over yet, of course. The landscape changed from production to release. Along with delays and pressures against theater attendance, the Tenet release can go longer than tradition. It could take on more theaters to offset occupancy restrictions. It's designed for repeat viewings. Could even take on cult film type status with those repeated viewings in its original release, a first among others I think. Or it may do some or none of those things.

    There is a price to pay doing the right thing, in this case reestablishing theater business. An investment in their own future. It moves forward at the first opportunity in line with regulation and science and whatever is thrown at it. Hesitation could extinguish the venue altogether, at a time when experience says it's completely manageable.

    Tenet and No Time To Die.

    For me, they have my support. It's a mistake to conflate what was and what happened and extinguish what can be.

    And the alternative is.
  • SuperintendentSuperintendent A separate pool. For sharks, no less.
    edited September 2020 Posts: 856
    Breaking even should be the goal for big budget films IMO. Anything above that is a success.

    Tenet is currently showing that reaching the break even point is impossible for a big budget film. It is likely to end its box office run over $100 million below that milestone. And NTTD’s budget is even higher than Tenet’s.

    @ShakenNotStirred is right in saying more people want to see a new Bond film than Tenet, but that still might not be enough. Why would anyone who's not a big Bond fan insist on seeing NTTD in cinema when they can watch it at home in 3 months time?

    If that's the case, they can either release it in November regardless, or they can keep delaying it, but I'm pretty sure that no date in 2021 will be marked as much safer - by the end of 2021 population will not have been vaccinated, and will not have reached herd immunity. I don't see anything happening to make people want to attend public events in much larger numbers.

    Perhaps there will be something - but I'm not seeing it.
  • Posts: 3,910
    They might have to find a hybrid solution. Release in November, bring streaming forward to much sooner than 3 months after.
  • Bond will do better. People, more so the general audience, want to see NTTD more than Nolan's Tenet.

    When talking about Tenet with a lot of my friends it's often a case of 'I'll wait until something better to go back to the cinema'.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 6,416
    My local theatre has already pulled Tenet in favour of The New Mutants and is showing stuff like The Greatest Showman instead. Very odd. Demand seems to be very low here and it worries me.
  • jamesbond0007jamesbond0007 mississippi
    Posts: 32
    Those going to the theaters will rename the film.......A LITTLE MORE TIME TO DIE
  • edited September 2020 Posts: 4,291
    vzok wrote: »
    They might have to find a hybrid solution. Release in November, bring streaming forward to much sooner than 3 months after.

    This is not likely...Blockbusters typically make their most money in the first 2-3 weeks of release. However - given the new climate - blockbuster films are now expecting to play over a much longer period of time. Warner are giving Tenet a full 2 and a half months before the next 'Big Film.' It's not a sprint these days, it's a marathon. The hope is that Tenet can post $10-20m in the USA for another 8 weeks and another $30-40m internationally till either Black Widow or Bond comes along....

    The question then being, who exactly will blink first? Bond or Black Widow?

    Either one is set to be the next tentpole going up to the slaughter....All signs point to the Widow bailing and Bond going out fighting. In their article today covering the matter, The Hollywood Reporter said: 'There are rumors that Disney and Marvel's Black Widow could vacate its Nov. 6 release date because of concerns over the state of the box office. One event pic that's determined to stay on the calendar so far is MGM's James Bond installment No Time to Die, set for Nov. 20.'

    maxresdefault.jpg

    Breaking even should be the goal for big budget films IMO. Anything above that is a success.

    Tenet is currently showing that reaching the break even point is impossible for a big budget film. It is likely to end its box office run over $100 million below that milestone. And NTTD’s budget is even higher than Tenet’s.

    @ShakenNotStirred is right in saying more people want to see a new Bond film than Tenet, but that still might not be enough. Why would anyone who's not a big Bond fan insist on seeing NTTD in cinema when they can watch it at home in 3 months time?

    If that's the case, they can either release it in November regardless, or they can keep delaying it, but I'm pretty sure that no date in 2021 will be marked as much safer - by the end of 2021 population will not have been vaccinated, and will not have reached herd immunity. I don't see anything happening to make people want to attend public events in much larger numbers.

    Perhaps there will be something - but I'm not seeing it.

    This is the strongest argument I've seen so far.

    Releasing the film in November would potentially be no different to releasing in February, June or November 2021. It's better to get the film in November, where it'll play in theatres till Spring 2021. The only thing cutting into it's screen capacity is Wonder Woman and Dune which aren't due till late December. Also, one of those films will inevitably move....

    If I was being super cautious, I would bump NTTD another 3 months to either 5th or 12th February 2021. Currently, Dr Fauci is confident that a vaccine will be ready by the end of the year and that extra bump would give Eon enough time to gage the situation theatrically....Plus, they had February earmarked for this year before moving. It's a good date and yielding great success for Black Panther, Deadpool and Fifty Shades of Grey.

    It may not make any difference fundamentally, but it could give Eon just a tiny bit more confidence. Personally, I would do it if I was them....Plus, Bond on Valentine's Day makes world's of sense:

    10985501_1008604902487754_3549946212085956486_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=2d5d41&_nc_ohc=YB_nOcj8KdwAX-uLi3u&_nc_ht=scontent-lht6-1.xx&oh=349590f63ea36eecf80523fae0e6777e&oe=5F8155FC

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,534
    TripAces wrote: »
    Creasy47 wrote: »
    I think NTTD will stick to its date now regardless. It looks like they've fully committed to November. And if Wonder Woman and Tenet move, Bond has more time to himself.

    I really don't see Tenet being too much of an issue for 007, especially now that it's already been out in a lot of places and there's already mixed vibes about it.

    It would be disastrous to move now.

    With the way the box office has been dropping for Tenet, I definitely don't see it being a big issue for Bond in two months plus.

    I'm not sure the BO numbers for Tenet have dropped. We won't know until this weekend. As @DaltonCraig007 has reminded us, traditionally, BO numbers go down after the first week. But the current circumstances are unprecedented. At the same time, Tenet is not the type of film that will see gains based on word of mouth.

    Some thoughts about this development with W84:

    1. I failed to mention in my earlier posts about seeing Tenet, that ticket prices were 50% off. I think this was the case for all showings in the state. I don't know if this happened elsewhere, but it might be a factor in Tenet's numbers that has not been reported.
    2. L.A., NY, and SF are not opening yet and might not be soon, which is what would move WW84, more than anything else.
    3. EON and MGM are "hoping" that those cities' theaters are open for business in late November. That is being very optimistic, but NYC is more likely than the other two.
    4. The move by WW84 hurts tremendously because it was expected to be another tentpole, creating some momentum for moviegoing during the fall, leading to NTTD. If there are no other major releases between now and NTTD, that could be a huge problem.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tenet-opening-weekend-box-office-wonder-woman-1234762206/

    We now have the answer:

    Tenet is going towards a second domestic weekend of $6.75 million to $7 million.

    Tenet will not be joining the club of films to have a bigger second weekend than opening weekend. Even with the current pandemic.
  • WalecsWalecs On Her Majesty's Secret Service
    edited September 2020 Posts: 3,157
    FoxRox wrote: »
    My heart cannot take another year-long delay on NTTD.

    Same here. If it has to move I hope it's sometime in Spring, but I have no idea how many movies are set to release in that time-frame, I'm rather ignorant on the matter as I haven't been following any movie news outside of these boards.
  • IF NTTD gets any sort of half hearted reviews in this environment the box office outcome could be bloody.
  • Red_SnowRed_Snow Australia
    Posts: 2,127
    ‘After We Collided’ Stokes $21M Overseas Through Sunday As Passionate Fans Prompt Screen Expansions
    https://deadline.com/2020/09/after-we-collided-international-box-office-social-media-voltage-pictures-1234575942/

    Says Voltage President and COO Jonathan Deckter, “Our success in the UK is a testament to the power of a strategic grassroots social campaign that spoke directly to our film’s target audience in the forum they prefer. Traditional release marketing will always have its place, but as far as Afternators are concerned, they live and breathe social.”

    [...] In a world where capacity restrictions are still in force during the COVID era, the performance is impressive. Deckter explains that the film was originally eyeing an April/May overseas release, but then pushed to October 2 before shifting that scenario when Wonder Woman 1984 took the same date (the WB film moved again just yesterday). “We had a group Zoom with the European distributors in late June — just after Wonder Woman declared October 2 — and we had a big decision to make, push back or move forward. All of the European distributors saw a gap in the market and made the case to go early September and we agreed. The release pattern on this film was always to have international lead the charge since the first film out performed the U.S. by 400%.”




  • jamesbond0007jamesbond0007 mississippi
    Posts: 32
    Red_Snow wrote: »
    ‘After We Collided’ Stokes $21M Overseas Through Sunday As Passionate Fans Prompt Screen Expansions
    https://deadline.com/2020/09/after-we-collided-international-box-office-social-media-voltage-pictures-1234575942/

    Says Voltage President and COO Jonathan Deckter, “Our success in the UK is a testament to the power of a strategic grassroots social campaign that spoke directly to our film’s target audience in the forum they prefer. Traditional release marketing will always have its place, but as far as Afternators are concerned, they live and breathe social.”

    [...] In a world where capacity restrictions are still in force during the COVID era, the performance is impressive. Deckter explains that the film was originally eyeing an April/May overseas release, but then pushed to October 2 before shifting that scenario when Wonder Woman 1984 took the same date (the WB film moved again just yesterday). “We had a group Zoom with the European distributors in late June — just after Wonder Woman declared October 2 — and we had a big decision to make, push back or move forward. All of the European distributors saw a gap in the market and made the case to go early September and we agreed. The release pattern on this film was always to have international lead the charge since the first film out performed the U.S. by 400%.”




    So what does this have to do with the new Bond film NTTD...???????????????????????
  • Red_SnowRed_Snow Australia
    Posts: 2,127
    @jamesbond0007

    It's an update on the current box office, and an example of strategic marketing and distribution consideration.

    All of which is very relevant to NTTD.

    Tenet may have stumbled, but other films are doing okay, if not better than expected.

    Although NTTD and After are entirely different franchises and audiences, it is interesting to note the positive effect marketing to the target audience has had, and some fans feel Bond hasn't always done that recently.
  • Posts: 3,084
    It's also worth noting that After is not a studio release, it's a *much* lower budgeted film with lower box office expectations and higher reliance on its fan base. Comparing apples and oranges...
  • If Black Widow abandons its release date, wouldn't it make sense for NTTD to grab it at least in some markets?
  • jamesbond0007jamesbond0007 mississippi
    Posts: 32
    If Black Widow abandons its release date, wouldn't it make sense for NTTD to grab it at least in some markets?

    Actually I prefer the 1987 version myself all others these days is TOTAL CRAP !
  • jamesbond0007jamesbond0007 mississippi
    Posts: 32
    If Black Widow abandons its release date, wouldn't it make sense for NTTD to grab it at least in some markets?

    LOL NTTD grabbing it......lols
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,534
    Tenet earns $6.7 million on its second weekend.

    With 70% of theaters now opened, the total box office at the US this weekend failed to reach $15 million, meaning there's not enough box office intake to cover exhibitors' operating expenses.

    https://www.indiewire.com/2020/09/tenet-6-7-million-total-box-office-is-under-15-million-theaters-hurt-1234586104/
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,534
    The Gerard Butler disaster film Greenland, due to release next Friday in the USA, has been delayed indefinitely.

    https://deadline.com/2020/09/gerard-butler-greenland-movie-july-opening-date-1202956851/

    There is now no new wide releases of any kind in the USA until Honest Thief on October 9th.
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    Posts: 4,207
    The Gerard Butler disaster film Greenland, due to release next Friday in the USA, has been delayed indefinitely.

    https://deadline.com/2020/09/gerard-butler-greenland-movie-july-opening-date-1202956851/

    There is now no new wide releases of any kind in the USA until Honest Thief on October 9th.

    Aren't all of his films disasters?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,534
    TripAces wrote: »
    The Gerard Butler disaster film Greenland, due to release next Friday in the USA, has been delayed indefinitely.

    https://deadline.com/2020/09/gerard-butler-greenland-movie-july-opening-date-1202956851/

    There is now no new wide releases of any kind in the USA until Honest Thief on October 9th.

    Aren't all of his films disasters?

    Only Greenland and Geostorm. ;-)
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython "I want you looking FABULOUS."
    Posts: 4,228
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    \By the way,i love the way Pierce2daniel claims Tenet '' isnt very good '' like its a fact,not a statement of opinion.

    That's VERY rich coming from you.
  • Posts: 3,910
    TripAces wrote: »
    The Gerard Butler disaster film Greenland, due to release next Friday in the USA, has been delayed indefinitely.

    https://deadline.com/2020/09/gerard-butler-greenland-movie-july-opening-date-1202956851/

    There is now no new wide releases of any kind in the USA until Honest Thief on October 9th.

    Aren't all of his films disasters?

    Tomorrow Never Dies was ok
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited September 2020 Posts: 15,534
    Black Widow likely to be delayed; Soul likely to move straight to Disney+.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/black-widow-release-date-delay-soul-disney-plus-1234769426/

    This makes No Time To Die the next big budget film to arrive in cinemas.
  • Posts: 12,372
    I predict........one day before NTTD is intended to be released, we'll get the announcement that it's been delayed until November 2022.

    Sorry. Bad joke

    Carry on.............
  • Posts: 10,371
    ToTheRight wrote: »
    I predict........one day before NTTD is intended to be released, we'll get the announcement that it's been delayed until November 2022.

    Sorry. Bad joke

    Carry on.............

    I wish this joke wasn't so possible to actually happen. If they keep on pushing this film and things don't get better, we might get a November 2021 release date first, then a November 2022 one next. It's just starting to feel like an endless cycle with this movie.
  • Posts: 12,372
    FoxRox wrote: »
    ToTheRight wrote: »
    I predict........one day before NTTD is intended to be released, we'll get the announcement that it's been delayed until November 2022.

    Sorry. Bad joke

    Carry on.............

    I wish this joke wasn't so possible to actually happen. If they keep on pushing this film and things don't get better, we might get a November 2021 release date first, then a November 2022 one next. It's just starting to feel like an endless cycle with this movie.

    True. I imagine they'd aim sooner, though if delayed again. Possibly February 2021?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,534
    ToTheRight wrote: »
    FoxRox wrote: »
    ToTheRight wrote: »
    I predict........one day before NTTD is intended to be released, we'll get the announcement that it's been delayed until November 2022.

    Sorry. Bad joke

    Carry on.............

    I wish this joke wasn't so possible to actually happen. If they keep on pushing this film and things don't get better, we might get a November 2021 release date first, then a November 2022 one next. It's just starting to feel like an endless cycle with this movie.

    True. I imagine they'd aim sooner, though if delayed again. Possibly February 2021?

    They'll have to hurry if they want a February release, as this is likely where Black Widow will move to.
  • Posts: 10,371
    This sucks :( why'd this movie have to be so cursed? It's a real shame VOD isn't considered feasible. Anything just to get the film out would be nice, but of course it's all about the money.
  • Posts: 12,372
    I'm really hoping NTTD is superb and exceeds all expectations regardless of when or how it's released.
    That said, cinemas are still closed where I live with no opening in sight. I almost wish a Blu-ray release were an option at this point.
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