Coronavirus Discussion

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  • NickTwentyTwoNickTwentyTwo Vancouver, BC, Canada
    edited March 2020 Posts: 7,584
    Common sense: the virus is transmitted between people through the air. If you keep people away from one another, the virus cannot be transmitted between people through the air.
    Of course quarantining and lockdown is effective. I can't understand how anyone would think otherwise.

    Science. Who'd a' thunk it?

    Society: Let's create a group of people who we can support while they dedicate their lives to learning about our natural world, and what to do in case of large scale emergencies. We'll call them Scientists.
    Scientists: Hey, thanks! So there's this global pandemic going around, we've learned that it's passed from humans to humans in the air, so we figure if we can just keep people away from one another for a few weeks, the virus won't be able to transmit, and we can contain it and fix it all up.
    Society: What? No. I want to play volleyball.
    Scientists:
    maxresdefault.jpg
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,721
    fanbond123 wrote: »

    I'm merely stating facts. The infection rate has shot up by 200,000 in ten days. That ten days is within the time period when Spain and Italy went into full lockdown. Parts of the US are in full lockdown too.

    I'm just stating lockdown is not slowing down the virus. You are not correct when you say the lockdown is having an effect. The death rate is now 15 percent, it was 13 percent a few days ago. Italy still has the highest daily death rate of any country in the world. Lockdown has had zero effect on coronavirus. The death rate is still small though but the infection rate is getting very alarming. If there is no drop soon we're on the trajectory to get to a million or more infected cases by Dec 31st.

    1. It takes 2 weeks between infection to recovery/death.
    2. 90% of cases are undetected because of lack of testing. What do you think has been happening this past week? That’s right : testing is increasing. More testing = more cases are being added to the official numbers.

    So your facts are nothing more than pure fake news and blatant miss understanding of common knowledge. It’s not rocket science to understand what is happening. And it is really hilarious that the person who was complaining about overreaction is now openly being a fear monger.
  • Posts: 3,327
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    [

    I'm merely stating facts. The infection rate has shot up by 200,000 in ten days. That ten days is within the time period when Spain and Italy went into full lockdown. Parts of the US are in full lockdown too.


    You said this was just a massive overreaction on an epic scale a few days ago. Have you changed your position on this theory now, Einstein?
  • NicNacNicNac Administrator, Moderator
    Posts: 7,584
    Guys, I appreciate that this is a sensitive subject and by its very nature it will create debate and argument.
    Most importantly we keep it civil. I cannot for one minute take action against a member who voices his/her opinion if it doesn't fall in line with common shared opinion.

    An opinion may seem ignorant or ill informed, but it's still an opinion, and if it doesn't break the terms and conditions for using these forums, then really we can't 'get rid' of anyone (which has been requested).

    Can I therefore ask everyone, if you disagree with someone, move on and ignore it. Don't re-quote it because it simply spreads the opinion you disagree with.

    We don't really approve of political threads on this Bond forum for obvious reasons, so keep politics out of it and keep the chat civil.


  • Major_BoothroydMajor_Boothroyd Republic of Isthmus
    Posts: 2,722
    I'm two hours away from my country going into lockdown for a month.

    At midnight everyone stays in their house. We're got two hundred cases - only four community spread cases, twenty recovered and no deaths so I'm glad the government has taken preemptive action.

    Guess I'll be on this board a lot more and watching all the bond films...might even watch Casino Royale 67...that's how long it might be!
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Based on the Financial Times Spain has recorded the double deaths occurred in Italy within the same timeframe since the pandemic started in Madrid, while US and UK seem to have both a higher curve than the one Italy had in their respective first 14 days.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,721
    Spain has overtaken China in terms of deaths from coronavirus. Italy is first with 6,820 fatalities, Spain second with 3,434 fatalities and China third with 3,281 fatalities. Only Iran comes close to being as badly hit as these 3 countries, with 2,077 fatalities.
  • Posts: 6,011
    1,100 fatalities in France, but note that it only concerns the unfortunates who died in hospitals. I don't have any numbers on those who died at home, or in retirement homes, but the toll will probably be double, or even triple, that.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    Death numbers in some countries are quite ambiguous. Iran definitely suffered more deaths than the one reported by the “government”. There’s also the weird case of Germany that has a ridiculously low number of casualties. Experts have already pointed out that they are clearly avoiding to count people dying also because of COVID... in Italy we also count the deaths of let’s say 90 years old infected patients with two cancers and dementia... just saying. Parameters in Germany are clearly different.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 4,617
    Yes, very fair point re different countries using different criteria. Perhaps the most useful figures are the % trends, day by day within the same countries as this provides consistancy (assuming the way they count does not change) I think this happemed in China a few weeks ago?
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,721
    "This isn"t a film. You are not Will Smith in 'I Am Legend'. So, you have to go home."

  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited March 2020 Posts: 4,343
    The first one speaking about “no one will see your hair dress once you’re in a coffin” is already a national hero. XD

    Ah, and then there’s the (missing in the video) governor of Campania who spoke about using “flamethrowers” against people chilling in the streets...
  • Posts: 6,011
    Well, that will certainly heat them up quickly. :D

    Yeah, bad one, I know but I couldn't resist.
  • 00Heaven00Heaven Home
    edited March 2020 Posts: 575
    I personally know people who have fallen very seriously ill and one that has already died from this virus. Can't believe there are people advocating the loss of a few when we should all be working together as much as we possibly can in keeping deaths to a minimum. Those people are still someone's mothers, fathers, sons and daughters.

    By the way, it is not the death rate in Italy you want to look at right now. Death rate has still not peaked. It's the infection rate (which is lowering. Today it will hopefully lower again). There is a lag between infection rates and death rates.

    Incubation up to 14 days.
    Then average time to death from onset of illness can be another 14 days after that.

    Lock down will work if people actually abide by it.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 8,292
    I'm two hours away from my country going into lockdown for a month.

    At midnight everyone stays in their house. We're got two hundred cases - only four community spread cases, twenty recovered and no deaths so I'm glad the government has taken preemptive action.

    Guess I'll be on this board a lot more and watching all the bond films...might even watch Casino Royale 67...that's how long it might be!

    You are lucky to live in a country that 1. is an Island and 2. actually has a capable government ready to learn from other countries' mistakes.

    I'm afraid here they've been downplaying the threat until more than 100 people died. It went from 'no, it's in China, it won't get to Europe', to 'we're fully prepared and we have a fantastic health care system' to 'only those who're symptomatic can transmit the desease and we're quarentining those, but it's only dangerous for the old and weak' to 'shit, we've got a 16y/o with no preconsisting problems in coma' to 'smart-lockdown' all in about 2 weeks. But our tally isn't sufficient because they only test the severe cases.

    Anyway, I've been following this since december and here are some facts:

    the disease spreads through bodily fluids (salive coughed or sneezed out) but can remain alive outside a host for up to two days depending on the surface. Others can pick it up by breathing in the tiny droplets from a sneeze or by touching, say, the same desk with their hands, picking up the virus, and then rubbing their eyes, nose, mouth.

    The death rate is about 100 to 200 times higher than the common flu.

    80 percent of infected people have mild to no symptoms. Which means 20 percent have severe symptoms. This is not age dependant. Because young people's cells are more resillient, they have a lesser chance to die when given the right care.
    If a person gets severily ill, it may lead to loss of long function, in which case artificial raspitory is applied until the person is strong enough again to clean up the lungs. Most young people recover, but not all. 0.2 percent do not survive.

    Important to note is that the necessary care is given. As in Wuhan, in Italy and Spain the hospitals can't keep up with the influx of patients. Especially considering the help that's needed, which is highly specialised. They then have to choose which patient to help. Normal doctrine says they'll help those with the best chances of survival first. Hence the high death rate amongst elderly people there, as they're just denied the help needed because younger people have taken their place already.

    The sad result is that many young people think they're invincible. They're more likely to withstand it in the first place, and more likely to survive if they get in trouble. Sadly, that's at the cost of their elderly neighbour, or their own (grand) parents.

    The 'flattening the curve' is meant to prevent what's happening in Italy and Spain: That the capacity of hospitals isn't sufficient to cope with the people who need help.

    Social distancing helps not only to flatten the curve, but also to diminish the total number of infected people. This technique isn't new: it was used extensively in 1918 to fight the Spanish Flu.

    For those who worry about the economy: if everybody goes back to work, including those infected but whom do not show any signs of the disease, they'll infect theri co-workers. One in five will get severily ill. That's 20% of the workforce knocked out. Hospitals will not be able to cope with such an influx. Now imagine what that would do to the economy.


  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    Brilliant post @CommanderRoss with such detailed information. I still wonder though, what will happen when they have successfully flattened the curve, what if there are some people still infected by that time and while most of us who have returned to work with them wouldn't even know and spread it again?
    There is no simple solution here which will completely end the virus, yet.
  • 00Heaven00Heaven Home
    Posts: 575
  • Posts: 4,617
    @Resurrection the idea is that, even if the curve takes a small bump up again at a later date, the hospitals will be ale to take batter care due to a much lower demand (all those new those new Ventilators won't be scrapped after the peak) plus we will have all of the research data collected during the peak (plus closer to a cure)

    Put it this way. If I was going to catch it, would I chose April this year or Dec? it's a no brainer.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 1,661
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    I'm merely stating facts.

    You're merely mis-stating facts and you can feel free to stop any old time now. Let's try taking the advice of experts in the field of communicable diseases, shall we? They're quite clear on the topic: shelter in place is the best tactic to slow the spread of this virus. The sooner the tactic is used the more effective it is. Your priorities -- economics before human life, and hey, the heck with those troublesome 70 plus year olds -- are seriously out of whack. I'd recommend taking a good look at them -- with any luck, you too may someday become a troublesome 70 year old. Try to make your positions now something you'll be proud of having taken if that far away day does indeed ever occur.

    I don't wish to get into a big argument here, life is too short blah blah blah but the fact - the empirical data PROVES - repeat PROVES the death toll in Italy and Spain has greatly risen SINCE the lockdowns were imposed. THIS IS FACT. I am not mistating facts as they're presented on the worldometer website. It's possible that website is posting fake, inaccurate information but, if not, the death toll in Italy and Spain has risen far higher since the lockdowns. Perhaps some/many people won't get cr if they're inside, logic would support that view, but the rate of death is not slowing since the lockdown. Please accept that.

    SPAIN HAS HAD 443 new deaths today and it's not even 4pm.

    Today, as of right now, more deaths in Spain with a lockdown than any other country in the world. Lockdown is not slowing down the virus and if anyone has the gall to say it is, you are spreading fake news, fake facts.

    As for the UK, we are being lied to or led a merry dance because the police have the power to fine three people walking together in a park but the government is happy to have thousands of London tube commuters huddled together. That makes no sense, is increasing the spread of this virus so none of this makes any sense.

    I've given up trying to understand what the government policy is on coronavirus other than to waste police officers time standing on pavements and in parks telling people to go home or you'll get a fine. Perhaps the government should stop being a hypocrite and massively reduce all train journeys, start up some ID scheme where essential workers only have to have ID type oyster cards before they can enter onto the railway tracks. If this is a serious virus pandemic then the government should limit 90 percent of all tube commuters. They're not doing that so is this crisis exaggerated, a product of hype and hysteria? Perhaps it is.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited March 2020 Posts: 15,721
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    the empirical data PROVES - repeat PROVES the death toll in Italy and Spain has greatly risen SINCE the lockdowns were imposed. THIS IS FACT.

    SPAIN HAS HAD 443 new deaths today and it's not even 4pm.

    Today, as of right now, more deaths in Spain with a lockdown than any other country in the world. Lockdown is not slowing down the virus and if anyone has the gall to say it is, you are spreading fake news, fake facts.

    There is a 2 weeks delay between infection and either recovery or death.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

    The lockdown in Spain started 10 days ago.

    Hopefully you are smart enough to understand 10 days is a smaller amount of time than 14 days. The lockdown hasn't been in effect long enough to have an effect on the daily death-toll.
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    I am not mistating facts as they're presented on the worldometer website. It's possible that website is posting fake

    And I just posted facts from that same website that proves you didn't even bother to read all the facts before posting more of your fear-mongering rambling.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 4,617
    "An opinion may seem ignorant or ill informed," nuff said

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_relationship

  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    Posts: 4,588
    DarthDimi wrote: »
    Our motto should be:

    Staying home now earns you the licence to Bond in November!

    YES
    00Heaven wrote: »
    I personally know people who have fallen very seriously ill and one that has already died from this virus. Can't believe there are people advocating the loss of a few when we should all be working together as much as we possibly can in keeping deaths to a minimum. Those people are still someone's mothers, fathers, sons and daughters.

    By the way, it is not the death rate in Italy you want to look at right now. Death rate has still not peaked. It's the infection rate (which is lowering. Today it will hopefully lower again). There is a lag between infection rates and death rates.

    Incubation up to 14 days.
    Then average time to death from onset of illness can be another 14 days after that.

    Lock down will work if people actually abide by it.

    Here in the U.S., too many states are not doing so. Trump refuses to make this a national concern and instead is letting governors approach this as they see fit. We're seeing through news reports and social media that there is an emboldened Conservative movement to end this lockdown. Believe it or not: over half the country approves of the way he is handling this emergency.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 3,327
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    fanbond123 wrote: »
    I'm merely stating facts.

    You're merely mis-stating facts and you can feel free to stop any old time now. Let's try taking the advice of experts in the field of communicable diseases, shall we? They're quite clear on the topic: shelter in place is the best tactic to slow the spread of this virus. The sooner the tactic is used the more effective it is. Your priorities -- economics before human life, and hey, the heck with those troublesome 70 plus year olds -- are seriously out of whack. I'd recommend taking a good look at them -- with any luck, you too may someday become a troublesome 70 year old. Try to make your positions now something you'll be proud of having taken if that far away day does indeed ever occur.

    I don't wish to get into a big argument here, life is too short blah blah blah but the fact - the empirical data PROVES - repeat PROVES the death toll in Italy and Spain has greatly risen SINCE the lockdowns were imposed. THIS IS FACT. I am not mistating facts as they're presented on the worldometer website. It's possible that website is posting fake, inaccurate information but, if not, the death toll in Italy and Spain has risen far higher since the lockdowns. Perhaps some/many people won't get cr if they're inside, logic would support that view, but the rate of death is not slowing since the lockdown. Please accept that.

    SPAIN HAS HAD 443 new deaths today and it's not even 4pm.

    Today, as of right now, more deaths in Spain with a lockdown than any other country in the world. Lockdown is not slowing down the virus and if anyone has the gall to say it is, you are spreading fake news, fake facts.

    As for the UK, we are being lied to or led a merry dance because the police have the power to fine three people walking together in a park but the government is happy to have thousands of London tube commuters huddled together. That makes no sense, is increasing the spread of this virus so none of this makes any sense.

    I've given up trying to understand what the government policy is on coronavirus other than to waste police officers time standing on pavements and in parks telling people to go home or you'll get a fine. Perhaps the government should stop being a hypocrite and massively reduce all train journeys, start up some ID scheme where essential workers only have to have ID type oyster cards before they can enter onto the railway tracks. If this is a serious virus pandemic then the government should limit 90 percent of all tube commuters. They're not doing that so is this crisis exaggerated, a product of hype and hysteria? Perhaps it is.

    China and Korea had lockdowns and that controlled the virus from spreading. And also there is a delay between lockdowns happening and results taking effect.

    It also shows the power of this virus, that even with lockdowns in place, it still spreads. Could you imagine what position the world would be in if there was no lockdowns in place at all? We would be talking millions affected, rather than thousands.

    And your last sentence really isn't worth responding to at all. I don't want to get angry with you anymore, there are bigger problems for us all to worry about right now.
  • edited March 2020 Posts: 1,314
    I wrote a Long post but dont want to add fuel to the fire so ive deleted it
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    patb wrote: »
    @Resurrection the idea is that, even if the curve takes a small bump up again at a later date, the hospitals will be ale to take batter care due to a much lower demand (all those new those new Ventilators won't be scrapped after the peak) plus we will have all of the research data collected during the peak (plus closer to a cure)

    Put it this way. If I was going to catch it, would I chose April this year or Dec? it's a no brainer.

    @patb No i get that, just wondering how much time are we looking at flattening the curve. With better data, vaccines(probably next year) we will be able to cope better.
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    edited March 2020 Posts: 24,232
    TripAces wrote: »
    Here in the U.S., too many states are not doing so. Trump refuses to make this a national concern and instead is letting governors approach this as they see fit. We're seeing through news reports and social media that there is an emboldened Conservative movement to end this lockdown. Believe it or not: over half the country approves of the way he is handling this emergency.

    Another symptom of Corona: stupidity.

    - Dad, there's a killer with a knife in the house.
    - That's just your imagination, son. Let me please finish this hamburger.
    - Dad, the killer is actually standing right behind you, now.
    - Boy, I told you, I'm not buying your hoax.
    - Dad, the knife is going into your--
    - OH MY GOD, couldn't you have told me s--aaaaah!

    Scientists warned this would happen. It was called a liberal hoax. Nothing was done. People are now dying, many never had to. Quick, decisive action could have prevented the loss of many lives. And still, whatever is done, is messy at best. When your leaders display this level of incompetence, when they make mistakes which cost lives, when they openly forget that the health of the economy should be second to the health of your people, what do you do?

    A killer is at your door and your leader and his media minions call it a "liberal hoax"?! Think about that.
  • Posts: 6,710
    One thing is for certain, certain leaders will not survive this as leaders. If the bigger History taught us something was that for every "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche" there is a guillotine, and that for every enforcement of undo power and stupidity there are red Octobers. When the dust settles, people will throw these clowns into their due pits, democratically, I hope. If not, then humanity doesn't deserve this world.
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Born on the bayou, but I now hear a new dog barkin'
    Posts: 9,064
    @DarthDimi, no objection and no criticism from my side for that. But it does show once again that it is impossible to actually keep this thread (and this threaT) "non-political". Politicians in most places make their decisions regarding the pandemic based on their political beliefs, and in discussing the consequences one cannot really pretend they didn't. It's not the doctors making the mistakes or the decision to ignore human lives over the state of the stock index. The Corona Crisis is definitely, naturally and necessarily the most political subject there is out there right now, or for the last 10 years or so. It shouldn't degenerate to an ad hominem shouting match (as much as one is tempted), but a non-political discussion it won't be. Ever.
  • Posts: 3,327
    j_w_pepper wrote: »
    The Corona Crisis is definitely, naturally and necessarily the most political subject there is out there right now, or for the last 10 years or so.

    The last 10 years? I'd go further back than that. The last time we faced a political crisis of this magnitude on a global scale is before most of us were even born (1939 to 1945).
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