NTTD & Corona

1626365676872

Comments

  • 4EverBonded4EverBonded the Ballrooms of Mars
    Posts: 12,459
    NO, it won't be delayed again, I think. I will bet you a mojito on that. ;)
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Reality is we will see this film in two months merely because EON/MGM/Universal finally understand NTTD is a total lost cause financially, no matter what scenario they concoct.
  • Last_Rat_StandingLast_Rat_Standing Long Neck Ice Cold Beer Never Broke My Heart
    Posts: 4,399
    Imagine if they would have stuck with the initial 2/14/20 release date. Only to have theaters shut down a month later. Do you think they could have gotten those profits in just 1 month?
  • Bentley007Bentley007 Manitoba, Canada
    Posts: 565
    Imagine if they would have stuck with the initial 2/14/20 release date. Only to have theaters shut down a month later. Do you think they could have gotten those profits in just 1 month?

    I think about this a lot. Could have saved millions on marketing, compounding interest and taken full advantage of a sale to a streaming service following a month long release. Now they will have a month Box Office at best, with half capacity.
  • Posts: 1,394
    With Black Widow looking like a box office bomb( Opened big but dropped like a stone it’s second weekend ).I agree with matt_u that EON have likely come to terms that NTTD is going to be a lost cause financially speaking.Widow cost about 200 million to produce and has grossed about 360 million so far and is fading fast.It likely needs to make 500 to 600 million to break even or turn a profit.

    F9 is in better shape financially as it cost about the same to make but is going to cross the 600 million barrier any time now ( But that’s still a huge drop from the billion dollar grosses of the previous two instalments ).

    What’s working against NTTD is the huge cost of making the film along with all the wasted advertising they have put into the film over the last year.The long running time of the film may put people who are still wary of cinema visits these days off,and that surely means less showings per day? All that along with the lack of knowledge of what state the planet will be in a few months time regarding COVID variants. Just look at Australia right now...
  • Last_Rat_StandingLast_Rat_Standing Long Neck Ice Cold Beer Never Broke My Heart
    Posts: 4,399
    I think they would have gotten a good chunk of profit in those first few weeks.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited August 2021 Posts: 4,343
    I think they would have gotten a good chunk of profit in those first few weeks.

    Lol no way all EU nations including UK went into lockdown before the original April 2020 release. So the answer to your previous question is no.
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    With Black Widow looking like a box office bomb( Opened big but dropped like a stone it’s second weekend ).I agree with matt_u that EON have likely come to terms that NTTD is going to be a lost cause financially speaking.Widow cost about 200 million to produce and has grossed about 360 million so far and is fading fast.It likely needs to make 500 to 600 million to break even or turn a profit.

    F9 is in better shape financially as it cost about the same to make but is going to cross the 600 million barrier any time now ( But that’s still a huge drop from the billion dollar grosses of the previous two instalments ).

    What’s working against NTTD is the huge cost of making the film along with all the wasted advertising they have put into the film over the last year.The long running time of the film may put people who are still wary of cinema visits these days off,and that surely means less showings per day? All that along with the lack of knowledge of what state the planet will be in a few months time regarding COVID variants. Just look at Australia right now...

    Yep, my same thoughts. I’d add that i have the feeling NTTD will be lucky to break the 500 million dollars mark at this point…

    Anyway, what a shame after 1 year and a half of delays.
  • fadetoblack7fadetoblack7 Chicago IL
    Posts: 60
    The quality of the film makes a big difference too. If people are spreading the word that NTTD is an amazing film (fingers crossed), then more people will flock to see it.
  • Last_Rat_StandingLast_Rat_Standing Long Neck Ice Cold Beer Never Broke My Heart
    Posts: 4,399
    matt_u wrote: »
    I think they would have gotten a good chunk of profit in those first few weeks.

    Lol no way all EU nations including UK went into lockdown before the original April 2020 release. So the answer to your previous question is no.
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    With Black Widow looking like a box office bomb( Opened big but dropped like a stone it’s second weekend ).I agree with matt_u that EON have likely come to terms that NTTD is going to be a lost cause financially speaking.Widow cost about 200 million to produce and has grossed about 360 million so far and is fading fast.It likely needs to make 500 to 600 million to break even or turn a profit.

    F9 is in better shape financially as it cost about the same to make but is going to cross the 600 million barrier any time now ( But that’s still a huge drop from the billion dollar grosses of the previous two instalments ).

    What’s working against NTTD is the huge cost of making the film along with all the wasted advertising they have put into the film over the last year.The long running time of the film may put people who are still wary of cinema visits these days off,and that surely means less showings per day? All that along with the lack of knowledge of what state the planet will be in a few months time regarding COVID variants. Just look at Australia right now...

    Yep, my same thoughts. I’d add that i have the feeling NTTD will be lucky to break the 500 million dollars mark at this point…

    Anyway, what a shame after 1 year and a half of delays.

    I wasn't saying April but the initial 2/14/20 release date. Unless it wasn't a worldwide release and some theaters in Europe wouldn't have released it until a month or so later. By then it would have been too late. So if it was worldwide on 2/14, how much could they have profited in the one month before lockdown.
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 5,947
    I'm fortunate to be fully vaccinated now and will be watching NTTD in a rather spacious cinema, double masked (don't mind at all); no food or drink, which is my usual habit anyway. I am so VERY glad this is a theatrical release only. Makes me happy to see it on the big screen and also to know box office is from cinemas. Get it in other ways later, but not at the initial release.

    Also, if the film is as long as they say it is, it is probably not a good idea to drink to get through it without a bathroom break!
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited August 2021 Posts: 4,343
    matt_u wrote: »
    I think they would have gotten a good chunk of profit in those first few weeks.

    Lol no way all EU nations including UK went into lockdown before the original April 2020 release. So the answer to your previous question is no.
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    With Black Widow looking like a box office bomb( Opened big but dropped like a stone it’s second weekend ).I agree with matt_u that EON have likely come to terms that NTTD is going to be a lost cause financially speaking.Widow cost about 200 million to produce and has grossed about 360 million so far and is fading fast.It likely needs to make 500 to 600 million to break even or turn a profit.

    F9 is in better shape financially as it cost about the same to make but is going to cross the 600 million barrier any time now ( But that’s still a huge drop from the billion dollar grosses of the previous two instalments ).

    What’s working against NTTD is the huge cost of making the film along with all the wasted advertising they have put into the film over the last year.The long running time of the film may put people who are still wary of cinema visits these days off,and that surely means less showings per day? All that along with the lack of knowledge of what state the planet will be in a few months time regarding COVID variants. Just look at Australia right now...

    Yep, my same thoughts. I’d add that i have the feeling NTTD will be lucky to break the 500 million dollars mark at this point…

    Anyway, what a shame after 1 year and a half of delays.

    I wasn't saying April but the initial 2/14/20 release date. Unless it wasn't a worldwide release and some theaters in Europe wouldn't have released it until a month or so later. By then it would have been too late. So if it was worldwide on 2/14, how much could they have profited in the one month before lockdown.

    My apologies for the misunderstanding.
    Then the answer is a big undeniable YES since those kind of films make most of their gross within the first 3 weeks. For example, SP made 95 million dollars out of 124 in the UK within its first 3 weeks. In the US, SP made 164 millions out of 200 during the first 3 weeks and 180 within the first month. Without mentioning all the money that they wouldn’t waste for lost marketing etc etc.

    It’s fair to say that if they would’ve stick to the original February release they would’ve earned 75/80% of the overall potential gross so that means at least 700/750 million dollars since I believe NTTD would’ve been able to cross the 1 billion mark. Now they would be lucky to earn 500 million dollars worldwide imo…
  • edited August 2021 Posts: 1,394
    I think they would have gotten a good chunk of profit in those first few weeks.

    The film doesn’t make profit until it makes two to three times its production budget.

    It grossed a lot of money it’s first week.It hasn’t made profit yet.
    Also it’s about to get really ugly with Scarjo suing Disney.
  • ViewerAnon, an anonymous Twitter account that has a reputation for being extremely well connected in the industry, posted this today.

    Normally I wouldn't pay something like this too much mind, but this person very rarely posts leaks and gossip, and when it does, it's pretty much always accurate.

    Back in mid-2019 he leaked the entire plot of WW84 beat for beat and predicted it's middling to negative reception.

    He's also accurately leaked the plot of other films including The Rise of Skywalker, Justice League, Fantastic Beasts 2, and others.

  • Bentley007Bentley007 Manitoba, Canada
    Posts: 565
    ViewerAnon, an anonymous Twitter account that has a reputation for being extremely well connected in the industry, posted this today.

    Normally I wouldn't pay something like this too much mind, but this person very rarely posts leaks and gossip, and when it does, it's pretty much always accurate.

    Back in mid-2019 he leaked the entire plot of WW84 beat for beat and predicted it's middling to negative reception.

    He's also accurately leaked the plot of other films including The Rise of Skywalker, Justice League, Fantastic Beasts 2, and others.


    I really hope that we get to see the film in just under 2 months
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Another kinda legit leaker said he heard very good things about the film a couple of weeks ago.
  • Posts: 625
    Who is ViewerAnon and what is his connection to the film industry? Anyone knows?
  • Posts: 1,550
    Happy to read that a reliable leaker...ummm, perhaps a more polite term exists ?...heard good things about NTTD. However -- really hope they don't leak the plot as they did with WW84. Why do that ?
  • Posts: 511
    The quality of the film makes a big difference too. If people are spreading the word that NTTD is an amazing film (fingers crossed), then more people will flock to see it.

    This is what I keep going back too, though perhaps this is the optimist in me. F9 got worse reviews than previous entries. BW was viewed — even pre-COVID — as a sort of "Who asked for this film?" and got questionable reviews.

    If NTTD is good, it will sell tickets. Will they make a profit? Who knows. Not problem. I don't own stock. And it's not like NTTD underperforming will sink Bond. Easily will be the #1 film of 2021 if it releases. And if it is good...who knows.
  • edited August 2021 Posts: 440
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    Who is ViewerAnon and what is his connection to the film industry? Anyone knows?

    He's an anonymous Twitter account that posts leaked information about upcoming films. Now there are a lot of other people who do that too, but unlike them, he's basically never had a leak that turned out to be false.

    I wouldn't have posted it here had it come from pretty much any other leaker. Of course, positive buzz doesn't necessarily mean it'll be good or successful, but it's certainly a hopeful sign.
  • NicNacNicNac Administrator, Moderator
    Posts: 7,568
    Worth reading the article on the news page 'Risky Business' where they crunch the numbers and bring some perspective to this conundrum.
  • Posts: 625
    NicNac wrote: »
    Worth reading the article on the news page 'Risky Business' where they crunch the numbers and bring some perspective to this conundrum.

    Nothing new in that article.

    But they forget, that earning money with NTTD does not stop after the theatrical run.
    Blu-Ray-Sales and most important the TV-rights are the thing, that will bring in more money.
    A movie nowadays does not have to break even during the theatrical release.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    NicNac wrote: »
    Worth reading the article on the news page 'Risky Business' where they crunch the numbers and bring some perspective to this conundrum.

    Nothing new in that article.

    But they forget, that earning money with NTTD does not stop after the theatrical run.
    Blu-Ray-Sales and most important the TV-rights are the thing, that will bring in more money.
    A movie nowadays does not have to break even during the theatrical release.

    Doesn't change the fact that a potential $500/600 million run would be a massive financial failure.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,020
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    With Black Widow looking like a box office bomb( Opened big but dropped like a stone it’s second weekend ).I agree with matt_u that EON have likely come to terms that NTTD is going to be a lost cause financially speaking.Widow cost about 200 million to produce and has grossed about 360 million so far and is fading fast.It likely needs to make 500 to 600 million to break even or turn a profit.

    F9 is in better shape financially as it cost about the same to make but is going to cross the 600 million barrier any time now ( But that’s still a huge drop from the billion dollar grosses of the previous two instalments ).

    What’s working against NTTD is the huge cost of making the film along with all the wasted advertising they have put into the film over the last year.The long running time of the film may put people who are still wary of cinema visits these days off,and that surely means less showings per day? All that along with the lack of knowledge of what state the planet will be in a few months time regarding COVID variants. Just look at Australia right now...

    BLACK WIDOW was available on streaming, so that was always going to play against its box office potential (and is partly why the star is suing Disney).

    So far, F9 was the closest we have to an example of a movie released without any streaming service, at least for the first month. It's now available for on-demand. I don't know how soon NO TIME TO DIE will be made available on-demand after theatrical release.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    F9 was always going to gross more than Bond. The last two did more than SF.
  • Posts: 1,394
    The latest MI6 article on box office projections estimate that NTTD needs to gross about 947 million to make a profit.That’s.... a pretty tall order even pre pandemic.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    Too tall to be honest. SP break even point was $650 million. NTTD’s run, given the delays etc etc, would need more money to become profitable, but not that more.
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,020
    AstonLotus wrote: »
    The latest MI6 article on box office projections estimate that NTTD needs to gross about 947 million to make a profit.That’s.... a pretty tall order even pre pandemic.

    Isn’t that going by the ROI method?
  • Posts: 1,165
    I wouldn’t pay much attention to those guys if I were you.
  • NicNacNicNac Administrator, Moderator
    Posts: 7,568
    TR007 wrote: »
    I wouldn’t pay much attention to those guys if I were you.

    Fair enough. But, while figures are estimated and assumptions have to be made the figures are not plucked out of the air and they do represent a pretty good idea of what the film needs to achieve.

    But like you say MI6 doesn't know the ins and outs of film finance and I hope you are proved right, I really do.
  • edited August 2021 Posts: 3,164
    NicNac wrote: »
    TR007 wrote: »
    I wouldn’t pay much attention to those guys if I were you.

    Fair enough. But, while figures are estimated and assumptions have to be made the figures are not plucked out of the air and they do represent a pretty good idea of what the film needs to achieve.

    But like you say MI6 doesn't know the ins and outs of film finance and I hope you are proved right, I really do.

    Yeah there's no lies there, the figures are 100% what would be needed to be achieved in a pre COVID world but the counter really - and I mentioned this in the other thread - right now, pure profitability is not the only factor they have to consider...and other films are in the exact same position and are willing to eat the potential losses to keep their pipeline and the wider industry ecology churning as we are actually well on our way through this - cinemas are actually open and confidence is mostly building thanks to vaccines, thanks to which there is little prospect of actual closures in the markets where the rollout is going well - (plus in some cases, get some Wall Street and associated monetary kudos by going in on streaming). There is that insistence that it's a 'cold financial decision' and that a delay will 100% happen as long as it's not profitable to do so - which I get but I do partly wonder if that may be a case of just being burned so many times it might as well be better to be rationally pessimistic.

    NTTD is, as ever, a bellwether for the industry...all eyes on it are once more.
Sign In or Register to comment.