No Time to Die production thread

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  • DoctorKaufmannDoctorKaufmann Can shoot you from Stuttgart and still make it look like suicide.
    Posts: 1,261
    delfloria wrote: »
    matt_u wrote: »
    Tuck91 wrote: »
    delfloria wrote: »
    Come Nov. will you be comfortable going to see NTTD in a theater using social distancing guidelines? It would be very hard for me to pass that up though my family might not be to thrilled.

    The occupation Limit will likely be scaled back.

    I’m going no matter what. Even if I have to buy out the whole row of seats and wear a mask. Heck I’ll wear one like safins if I have to

    I don’t think EoN will release a film like NTTD under that circumstances... seats scaled back, masks, restrictions, fear from casual moviegoers (not crazy hardcore fans like us) etc etc. It would be a disaster box office wise. A 2020 release at this point seems totally unlikely to me.

    How about a digital release for the general public with limited theater screenings, at a big premium price, for the crazed hard core fans like us? (A Fathom Event?)

    As long as the authorities and doctors consider Covid 19 too danerous, there will not be a limited screening at movie theatres. Think about how they would have to disinfect the bathrooms the auditoriums and the like. We have to wait and see.
  • My gut feeling is a summer or even autumn 2021 release depending on how long it takes for the vaccine to come and to be distributed. Crazy to think it could come out 2 years after its initial October 2019 release date. It could really push close to the 6 and a half year gap between LTK and GE.

    My head feels dizzy just thinking about that.
    If it gets pushed to fall 2021.. It's just not feasible to me. April 2021 I think is latest I could take! I really hope things improve to watch it this in theatres come November. Otherwise VOD 100%.

    I agree - I'm feeling depressed and tired just at the moment from this wait.
  • edited April 2020 Posts: 3,164
    Tuck91 wrote: »
    I think we might see a limited theatre release in November 2020 combined with VOD at the same time. This could push it to the 600-800 million mark.

    After the 30-50 million dollar marketing loss this spring, a 250 million dollar budget , and the added marketing cost this summer/fall Eon may break even on this one.


    For the film gurus. What is NTTDs break even point?

    Unfortunately when it comes to a big film like this taking its revenue from major chain cinemas, it has to be one way or the other - either a traditional theatrical release, or VOD only. Because simultaneous screenings with VOD would be very very limited, only to independent and arthouse venues, like what happened with Roma and The Irishman. Unless something drastic happens in the major chains attitudes towards the theatrical window (period of exclusivity between cinema release and home entertainment), that's how it will end up...

    Now, here's an interesting wrinkle - Trolls World Tour made $50M in the US in its 'virtual' opening weekend.
    https://www.indiewire.com/2020/04/trolls-world-tour-vod-revenue-impact-universal-1202225471/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
    The likely two big factors here are a fully captive audience during this lockdown and the fact that they had a full advertising campaign like a traditional theatrical release (out of consequence of the last minute change in release strategy). So theoretically it could be possible for a blockbuster to match traditional theatrical revenues to a certain extent on digital (especially as the distributor takes more of said revenue back - cinema release on average it's half, here it's closer to if not above 80%), though they may end up earning slightly less when the film comes out on Blu-ray, DVD, regular digital as opposed to premium rental. But possible issues are 1. is there a ceiling to this and 2. relationships with cinemas when they come out of this.

    So to come back to the breakeven point question, @CraigMooreOHMSS is spot on -$650m is the break even - for a traditional theatrical release. For a home release that number drops.

    And this reminded me also of these brand partnerships - that's another thing that could force MGM's hand to go VOD should cinemas not reopen in November. As we know, product placement is a way bigger opportunity for Bond than any other major blockbuster or franchise, with history showing that a lot of the money MGM spent on the film is already being recouped by these deals. But the April to November delay screwed up a lot of plans for people like Nokia or Heineken...and further delays would further destabilise that.
    octofinger wrote: »
    A point of order: I feel as though the phrase "write it off" is getting thrown around a lot in this thread.

    Let's be clear: in a worst-case scenario, EON (and their investors) don't "write off" the 9-figure sums they have bet on this film. They just lose it. A monster like Disney might have enough cash on hand to carry on after a loss like that, but for EON it would be a tough, tough blow. Tell their investors that they get nothing back means that the task will be that much harder next time they go looking to raise funds.

    This is why the push to release on streaming platforms is a worry. There's really no way they'd make as much as they would at traditional box office. If we're looking at a break-even point above $300 million, a traditional cinema campaign (for NTTD, at least) is the best way to EON to stay in good health. (Unless you want to start talking about spinning off revenue from other properties, like selling pitches for The Moneypenny Diaries or Young Bond to Netflix.)

    It's not EON that's at stake here though, it's MGM. They fully financed the film.

    The product placement deals and the sale of international distribution to Universal, from MGM's POV, has decreased the breakeven already...just at this point, a question of maintaining prestige, maintaining good relations with major cinema chains, and how far the ceiling for premium VOD release revenues can go. Trolls exceeding it's US opening weekend tracking by 2x-3x by going digital is a sign in that regard.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,168
    Yes and I think for that reason Bond 25 can not be delayed much more than it already has been.
  • Posts: 11,425
    If it gets pushed to fall 2021.. It's just not feasible to me. April 2021 I think is latest I could take! I really hope things improve to watch it this in theatres come November. Otherwise VOD 100%.
    ~X(

    I have no desire to see it on VOD. Theatre release or nothing.
  • Posts: 3,164
    I should really probably clarify - I don't believe the VOD scenario is going to be considered at all, unless cinemas remain closed in November.

    At the moment industry consensus is for reopenings in July, with likely a few months (some are really optimising for some reason and saying weeks - nah) of enforced social distancing by seating people apart and capping capacity, as well as other sanitary measures.

    Currently even the likes of Disney and Warner Bros are taking the financial risk and releasing Mulan and Tenet in July right when things are currently due to reopen as a helping hand to cinema owners - audience confidence from a health POV is one factor, the other is content - audiences will need new stuff, for major chain audiences in particular seeing old films they've probably watched in lockdown on the big screen for sake of the big screen isn't gonna be enough. The guy owning Cineworld went on the record to say they don't even foresee reopening without major studio films.

    If cinemas don't reopen in November changes to that whole industry would be seismic and many - even big chains - simply may not survive being shut down for so long. Even if they do, by that point audiences will have likely accustomed even more to the new normal of consuming all entertainment at home. The notion of a traditional wide theatrical release that can gross as much as a a billion as we know it today might not exist if reopenings don't happen until the end of the year.

    That's where the VOD discussion for Bond really becomes a possibility, and that's why being the first to move to November in the first place is such as smart move on MGM and EON's part.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    edited April 2020 Posts: 8,168
    No, the smart move would've been to release in November of 2019 as originally planned. EON don't choose the smart move, haven't done for a long time. Their decision to delay the film into oblivion is coming back to bite them now.
  • ContrabandContraband Sweden
    Posts: 3,018
    Fresh upload. No chat about NTTD but still..


  • DenbighDenbigh UK
    edited April 2020 Posts: 5,869
    @Mendes4Lyfe Yes because everything that happens during a films production is predictable and totally in their control. Your pessimism and total lack of understanding on how situational a lot of these problems are, is incredibly boring.

    Boyle’s Bond 25 could have been the worst film ever, but a lot of you would have just accepted it because at least we got it early! It also could’ve been good, but I honesty couldn’t give a crap, because things happened and people made decisions that meant it wasn’t gonna happen. We now have a different director with new circumstances that mean the film can’t be released. But of course to a lot of you on here, the film producers supposedly should know that a huge virus is gonna sweep the globe and mean they’d lose millions and millions if they decided to release it? Hmmm.

    If anyone has a problem with a later release needs to really stop and think about what’s going on right now, and realise that a global quarantine and a virus is more important than keeping fan boys happy. Your life carries on whether Bond is released in 2021 or tomorrow, and blaming EON and the producers is just classic toy throwing so anyway, the film will come out when it comes out.
  • mtmmtm United Kingdom
    Posts: 15,141
    Yeah I can see it staying on the shelf until next year if things don't pick up, but then I guess that depends on whether there are any cinemas left to show it!
    I wonder if that will mean far fewer very expensive blockbusters for a few years.
  • Guys, Europe is already starting to open up again (schools in Denmark were reopened this week). Cinemas will reopen LONG before November and NTTD will not be delayed.

    Having said that, I am absolutely stunned that @Getafix wrote that he has no desire to see it on VOD. The way most of us experienced most Bond films was at home on a small screen. I don't dislike DN or TB any less just because I never saw them at the cinemas, and I believe most fans feel the same way.
  • DonnyDB5DonnyDB5 Buffalo, New York
    Posts: 1,755
    Yeah. I’d rather have it on VOD than not have it at all.
  • GadgetManGadgetMan Lagos, Nigeria
    Posts: 4,247
    November is still very far....something positive can happen out of the blue, between now & November.
  • The_Return wrote: »
    Guys, Europe is already starting to open up again (schools in Denmark were reopened this week). Cinemas will reopen LONG before November and NTTD will not be delayed.

    Having said that, I am absolutely stunned that @Getafix wrote that he has no desire to see it on VOD. The way most of us experienced most Bond films was at home on a small screen. I don't dislike DN or TB any less just because I never saw them at the cinemas, and I believe most fans feel the same way.

    Social distancing will be with us until there is a vaccine - that will have massive implications for businesses predicated on gatherings of people such as cinemas, pubs, theatres etc. We're a long way from 100% normality.
  • ResurrectionResurrection Kolkata, India
    Posts: 2,541
    The_Return wrote: »
    Guys, Europe is already starting to open up again (schools in Denmark were reopened this week). Cinemas will reopen LONG before November and NTTD will not be delayed.

    Having said that, I am absolutely stunned that @Getafix wrote that he has no desire to see it on VOD. The way most of us experienced most Bond films was at home on a small screen. I don't dislike DN or TB any less just because I never saw them at the cinemas, and I believe most fans feel the same way.

    If i ever get the opportunity i would definitely want to watch every single bond film in theatre even if i have seen most of them on TV.
  • The_Return wrote: »
    Guys, Europe is already starting to open up again (schools in Denmark were reopened this week). Cinemas will reopen LONG before November and NTTD will not be delayed.

    Having said that, I am absolutely stunned that @Getafix wrote that he has no desire to see it on VOD. The way most of us experienced most Bond films was at home on a small screen. I don't dislike DN or TB any less just because I never saw them at the cinemas, and I believe most fans feel the same way.

    If i ever get the opportunity i would definitely want to watch every single bond film in theatre even if i have seen most of them on TV.

    Why not get a projetor to watch them on? It's not the full cinema experience for sure, but it's close to it.
  • Bentley007Bentley007 Manitoba, Canada
    Posts: 569
    On one of the many Bond related podcasts I listen to their was a suggestion that they release the Pre-Titles Sequence to audiences to whet our appetite. This would be similar to what Nolan did for the Dark Knight Rises. My question is if they did say release the first 15-20 minutes of this over 2 and a half hour movie would people pay a small sum for this? And what would that be, £5.00?
  • Posts: 3,164
    Bentley007 wrote: »
    On one of the many Bond related podcasts I listen to their was a suggestion that they release the Pre-Titles Sequence to audiences to whet our appetite. This would be similar to what Nolan did for the Dark Knight Rises. My question is if they did say release the first 15-20 minutes of this over 2 and a half hour movie would people pay a small sum for this? And what would that be, £5.00?

    They would not.

    Though releasing an extended clip-slash-trailer would certainly be a cool way to begin building hype back up
  • Posts: 309
    I really don’t think NTTD is going to reschedule again. The studios could be overly optimistic but Disney's reshuffling its Spring/Summer releases to November suggests that the Fall outlook looks good.
  • Posts: 787
    I think the VOD market would be very small, and it's hard to imagine a pricing structure that would make it worthwhile.

    I'm thinking of the millions of people in, say, southeast Asia who are Bond fans and would gladly stump up a few bucks to see it in cinema, but who don't have a credit card, or access to home streaming.
  • Posts: 3,164
    octofinger wrote: »
    I think the VOD market would be very small, and it's hard to imagine a pricing structure that would make it worthwhile.

    I'm thinking of the millions of people in, say, southeast Asia who are Bond fans and would gladly stump up a few bucks to see it in cinema, but who don't have a credit card, or access to home streaming.

    $20 to rent for 48 hours is what Universal's been pioneering. And local platforms and solutions - along with global players like iTunes - exist in those territories too. All you need is a laptop or smartphone at least...
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    edited April 2020 Posts: 4,554
    I work in government, and so I know a little about how officials operate: the basic idea is the keep the public's expectations low. The worst thing to do is to give an optimistic report, only for things to fall short. To operate the other way around always works better.

    I am expecting the same thing to be the case with a vaccine.

    Work had already begun in January: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-why-it-takes-at-least-a-year-to-make-a-vaccine.html

    Our U.S. Coronavirus taskforce expert is cautiously optimistic:
    https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccines-may-be-ready-sooner-8a39a2f2-aa06-470f-b456-aa57168d803c.html

    Don't be surprised if there is one developed and mass produced by fall of this year:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans

    Fingers crossed, folks. NTTD will be in theaters this November, and by then we'll be more excited than ever to be back in the theaters.
  • DoctorKaufmannDoctorKaufmann Can shoot you from Stuttgart and still make it look like suicide.
    Posts: 1,261
    Getafix wrote: »
    If it gets pushed to fall 2021.. It's just not feasible to me. April 2021 I think is latest I could take! I really hope things improve to watch it this in theatres come November. Otherwise VOD 100%.
    ~X(

    I have no desire to see it on VOD. Theatre release or nothing.

    +1
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited April 2020 Posts: 4,343
    GadgetMan wrote: »
    November is still very far....something positive can happen out of the blue, between now & November.

    Between now and September. At least 2 months will be needed for marketing and advertising and NTTD it’s not in the position to start marketing again without a bulletproof release date. They already lost a lot of money. It’s risky... how about a potential second wave? No one knows that’s the point.
    The_Return wrote: »
    Guys, Europe is already starting to open up again (schools in Denmark were reopened this week). Cinemas will reopen LONG before November and NTTD will not be delayed..

    Italy will re-open construction sites, industries, offices etc etc in a couple of weeks. Schools will open in September (even tho final exams will take place at school by June), all things linked to seaside tourism will open in the Summer BUT theaters will see the green light in December. As for now this is the current situation in the third power in Europe. Theaters are not that capital to the economy and are risky to open for obvious reasons so it looks like the movie chains will be “sacrificed” (alongside other stuff like sports events, gyms etc etc). Without mentioning the US situation... NTTD will come out theatrically only when going to the cinema will be safe for everyone mostly worldwide.
  • Posts: 4,400
    antovolk wrote: »
    octofinger wrote: »
    I think the VOD market would be very small, and it's hard to imagine a pricing structure that would make it worthwhile.

    I'm thinking of the millions of people in, say, southeast Asia who are Bond fans and would gladly stump up a few bucks to see it in cinema, but who don't have a credit card, or access to home streaming.

    $20 to rent for 48 hours is what Universal's been pioneering. And local platforms and solutions - along with global players like iTunes - exist in those territories too. All you need is a laptop or smartphone at least...

    You're being ignorant towards piracy. You will loose a huge chunk of money once that occurs.

    I think the pandemic has to get much worse before we get into a situation where VOD becomes realistic. If it's still a problem in August/September, they'll push NTTD to summer 2021.

    I'm fed up of this 'I want it now!' mentality. People need to be patient and wait for theatres to re-open and this disaster to subside. There are far more pressing issues than whether we get our precious Bond film or not.
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    antovolk wrote: »
    octofinger wrote: »
    I think the VOD market would be very small, and it's hard to imagine a pricing structure that would make it worthwhile.

    I'm thinking of the millions of people in, say, southeast Asia who are Bond fans and would gladly stump up a few bucks to see it in cinema, but who don't have a credit card, or access to home streaming.

    $20 to rent for 48 hours is what Universal's been pioneering. And local platforms and solutions - along with global players like iTunes - exist in those territories too. All you need is a laptop or smartphone at least...

    I think the pandemic has to get much worse before we get into a situation where VOD becomes realistic. If it's still a problem in August/September, they'll push NTTD to summer 2021.

    I'm fed up of this 'I want it now!' mentality. People need to be patient and wait for theatres to re-open and this disaster to subside. There are far more pressing issues than whether we get our precious Bond film or not.

    Yes I agree.
  • GadgetManGadgetMan Lagos, Nigeria
    edited April 2020 Posts: 4,247
    Yeah, true @matt_u....I can't bet or argue against those points. Although, we still hope for the best concerning everything right now.
  • Posts: 4,602
    One thought. If IF (i know its very unlikely), if any movie goes staight to VOD (inc Bond), the time to maximise profits is during a full lockdown when you have a captive audience. There is already talk of a scaled opening of society but retaining of social distancing until a vaccine is found. Cafes, pubs etc have the flexibilty to open and still provide social distancing (plus boosting the economy and reducing islolation). Releasing on VOD after allowing cafes etc to open would be the worst possible outcome surely as the release will be competing with the option to actually go out. There will be a period IMHO around a year-18 months where its too late to VOD but cinemas will still be closed
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    Posts: 4,343
    GadgetMan wrote: »
    Yeah, true @matt_u....I can't bet or argue against those points. Although, we still hope for the best concerning everything right now.

    Sure!
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