The Next American President Thread (2016)

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  • 4EverBonded4EverBonded the Ballrooms of Mars
    Posts: 12,459
    you mean "should have" ...
  • Posts: 315
    FLeiter wrote: »
    FLeiter wrote: »
    You have to wonder what non-USA citizens must think now. You have one party that wants to: build a wall to keep out non-whites, encourage buying as many guns as your bunker will hold, tell women when they can have children, tell people who they can love, believe that climate change isn't proven and restrict voting rights of minorities.

    You have candidates who promise to bomb and slaughter people all over the world. But when they had the opportunity to actually join the military and stand a post, they had better things to do. Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich and Carson have as much military experience as your basic house plant. We call them chicken-hawks.

    And then there's the other side.

    Oh please! Again with the fallacy that republicans and conservatives want to keep non-whites out of this country! First of all, several republicans signed on to the Gang of Eight bill that gave illegals amnesty, so right there your statement doesn't hold water. Second, regarding Trump who is against amnesty, he is against illegal immigrants coming in here. He has no problem bringing in non-white immigrants who are hard workers, will benefit the U.S. economy, and who come in here legally.

    What part of the word illegal do you not understand?!

    Was that the Gang of Eight bill that was never voted on, never passed and that Marco Rubio flipped on? It was stopped by House Republicans. Don't confuse activity with accomplishment.

    As to Donald Trump(a serial adulterer) and the undocumented aliens issue. He has no problem hiring undocumented workers to work on his current Old Post Office project in Washington. But some prefer not to look in mirrors before they speak.

    Well he's hiring them, he's not saying they could stay here permanently. Obviously a little hypocritical on his part.

    The Gang of Eight, maybe it was never voted on, but it was obvious a lot of Republicans were for it. Otherwise you would not see the concerted effort by the establishment Republicans to get Trump out.

    Really? Saying you're in support of an issue in a closed room and actually voting on that issue(and putting your name out there) are two different things. Actions trump words every time.

    As to the U. S. military being weakened under President Obama(Romney suggested this in 2012 and was proven wrong), here's where the U. S. military stands today.

    Overall spending on national security includes the Pentagon budget as well as spending by other agencies, such as the Energy Department’s work on nuclear weapons. Spending increased in 2010 and 2011, but it has fallen every year for four years since then by a cumulative 15 percent.

    National security spending made up 20.1 percent of the federal budget in 2010, but in 2015 it was 15.9 percent. Over the same period, spending fell from 4.6 percent of gross domestic product to 3.3 percent.

    The most recent Obama budget proposed a 6.0 percent increase in the base Defense Department budget. He had requested more but the Republicans slashed that number.

    In 2012, the Army had about 570,000 soldiers. Reductions over several years have taken it down to its current size of about 490,000. The Army plans to cut the regular Army from 490,000 to 450,000 by fiscal year 2018, or a total of 40,000 positions, saving $7 billion. But we're increasing special ops units. ‎

    In 1916, the U.S. Navy had 245 active ships. The number peaked at a massive 6,768 ships during World War II. The current number of active ships is 272. But naval warfare has changed a great deal in 100 years. As of today, the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (plus the jets to launch from them), 31 amphibious ships, 14 submarines capable of launching nuclear ballistic missiles and four specialized submarines for launching cruise missiles. There are only 10 nuclear naval battle groups in the world. France has one. We have the rest.

    In March 2015, the Navy set a goal for a fleet of 308 ships. Given the current shipbuilding schedule, that goal would not be met until 2022 at the earliest. That's if a Republican Congress will approve the budget.

    The Navy is building 12 ballistic missile submarines to replace the current force of 14 beginning with the first hull in 2021. The Navy budgeted $103 billion.

    The Defense Department is in the middle of the largest aircraft procurement ever for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Plans call for acquiring 2,443 joint strike fighters over about 20 years at a cost of nearly $400 billion. Last year, the Air Force awarded a contract for the long-range strike bomber. The cost estimate is $21.4 billion for the engineering and manufacturing development phase and then $550 million per aircraft for the first 21 of 100. The 100 planes are expected to be done by the 2020s.
  • Posts: 7,653
    @FLeiter you cannot say all that stuff about the US military as they are hopelessly outmatched by the calculations skills of certain people, mostly politicians that feed the fires of xenophobia into a feeling of deep insecurity which needs to be cured with military toys galore.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    2016 Foreign Policy debate

    Trump: "With all due respect, Hillary, I think you don’t have the balls for this job.”
    Hillary: "Perhaps Donalid. But the advantage is, I don't have to think with them all the time."
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,087
    My purely subjective opinion:

    Trump 75% chance of being the next President.

    Clinton 20% chance of being the next President.

    Sanders 4% chance of being the next President.

    Rubio 1% chance of being the next President.

  • Posts: 1,631
    Rubio's path to the nomination more or less officially ends tonight. He's doing very poorly in the results thus far. It seems that the anatomy lesson that he and Trump put on for the nation in the Thursday debate may have had some impact. I said Thursday night that it takes some effort to make Ted Cruz look presidential, but those two managed to pull it off. We might be seeing that bear out tonight, as Cruz is currently at 51% of the vote in Kansas and has a wide lead in Maine as well.

    There's no way that there's a 3 in 4 chance that Trump is the next POTUS. He's going to go into the general election, assuming he even holds on to be the nominee, as an underdog to Clinton. It'll be his job to dig out from that hole and convince the vast numbers of Americans outside of his 35-42% of the Republican that he's offended, disgusted, and pissed off to come around and vote for him.


  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited March 2016 Posts: 23,883
    The trick in American presidential politics I think, and as I mentioned before, is to be authentic. Stay true to your brand and your image. If you win, you win. If you lose, you lose.

    The minute you give off a vibe that suggests pandering or calculation (especially this year) like Al Gore, then you are going down (although some will still bring up the Supreme Court).

    Rubio lost his brand when he got in the gutter and played the Trump game imho.
  • Posts: 1,631
    And the more Trump continues to be "flexible" from day to day on his stances, he loses a bit of that, too.

    The thing with Rubio, though, is that he never was going to be the answer to the Trump riddle anyway. He was always an afterthought in this race, as he's only got the Minnesota caucus to show for all of the millions the establishment has pumped into him and for all of the endorsements they've sought out for him.

    The establishment lost this race when they decided that they were going to try to prop Marco Rubio up as their alternative to Trump. There were far better alternatives than him, as he's basically the Republican version of Obama, only minus all of Obama's attributes.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,087
    dalton wrote: »
    Rubio's path to the nomination more or less officially ends tonight. He's doing very poorly in the results thus far. It seems that the anatomy lesson that he and Trump put on for the nation in the Thursday debate may have had some impact. I said Thursday night that it takes some effort to make Ted Cruz look presidential, but those two managed to pull it off. We might be seeing that bear out tonight, as Cruz is currently at 51% of the vote in Kansas and has a wide lead in Maine as well.

    There's no way that there's a 3 in 4 chance that Trump is the next POTUS. He's going to go into the general election, assuming he even holds on to be the nominee, as an underdog to Clinton. It'll be his job to dig out from that hole and convince the vast numbers of Americans outside of his 35-42% of the Republican that he's offended, disgusted, and pissed off to come around and vote for him.

    All Trump has to do is repeat the words "she is bought" as many times as he can, over and over, and he will win the election.

  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    He's a lightweight. That was noticeable from the start. Smart guy, but not ready for prime time and the top job.
  • edited March 2016 Posts: 1,631
    dalton wrote: »
    Rubio's path to the nomination more or less officially ends tonight. He's doing very poorly in the results thus far. It seems that the anatomy lesson that he and Trump put on for the nation in the Thursday debate may have had some impact. I said Thursday night that it takes some effort to make Ted Cruz look presidential, but those two managed to pull it off. We might be seeing that bear out tonight, as Cruz is currently at 51% of the vote in Kansas and has a wide lead in Maine as well.

    There's no way that there's a 3 in 4 chance that Trump is the next POTUS. He's going to go into the general election, assuming he even holds on to be the nominee, as an underdog to Clinton. It'll be his job to dig out from that hole and convince the vast numbers of Americans outside of his 35-42% of the Republican that he's offended, disgusted, and pissed off to come around and vote for him.

    All Trump has to do is repeat the words "she is bought" as many times as he can, over and over, and he will win the election.

    He's going to have an awfully hard time making that charge when he starts raising money himself in the general election. She can also turn right around and say that he was one of those giving her the money and, therefore, that makes him an equal part of the problem.

    A large part of Trump's appeal is his "self-funding", which is a myth in and of itself to begin with. There will be some who will jump ship once he breaks that promise and starts fundraising.

    And Trump's antics are already showing to be a bit tiresome. If he just keeps repeating that she's "bought" and doesn't actually do anything to go into specifics on his plans, which he continues to refuse to do, Clinton will wipe the floor with him.

    Trump cannot act the way he has in the debates in the general election. With there being at that point the very real opportunity to elect the first female president in the nation's history, him resorting to his childish and often times crude antics will only serve to make her look more and more presidential.

    And all Clinton has to do is keep chiding him on his "hands" and he'll take the bait and say something stupid, like he did the other night. If he ventures into that territory on a debate stage with her, the campaign will end that night and lead to a Clinton landslide.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,691
    bondjames wrote: »
    2016 Foreign Policy debate

    Trump: "With all due respect, Hillary, I think you don’t have the balls for this job.”
    Hillary: "Perhaps Donalid. But the advantage is, I don't have to think with them all the time."
    Hehheh, I was wondering when someone on this thread would post something along those lines....

    I still have some faith that we will vote in Bernie.
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    Question to the Americans.

    On German-based news media I read that there are plots in the work by the Republicans not to nominate Trump no matter the results in the various States.
    They can alter the rules if necessary.

    Is this a realistic scenario?
  • edited March 2016 Posts: 1,631
    Question to the Americans.

    On German-based news media I read that there are plots in the work by the Republicans not to nominate Trump no matter the results in the various States.
    They can alter the rules if necessary.

    Is this a realistic scenario?

    They're not going to alter the rules. If they did, Donald Trump would sue them and they'd lose miserably in court, possibly taking the party down with it.

    But, they are only forced to nominate Trump if he reaches 1,237 delegates heading into the convention. He's only in the 300s right now, with Cruz trailing behind him in the mid-200s. If no candidate reaches 1,237, then the nomination goes to the convention and, quite frankly, all hell will break loose at that point.

    The results of that could be staggering. The most likely scenario would be candidate with the most amount of pledged delegates emerging as the nominee so that they would appear to reflect the will of the people. But, if that person is Trump and they can't get him over the hump of 1,237 to secure the nomination, even after multiple votes in the convention, then the nominee could turn out to be anyone. There's talk that Mitt Romney could be put up for a vote. There's talk, although he's denied it profusely, that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who will preside over the convention, could go up for a vote and emerge as the Republican nominee.
  • MurdockMurdock The minus world
    Posts: 16,330
    Bernie should use this tagline. Feel the Bern, Trump the Chump. :p
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,691
    Murdock wrote: »
    Bernie should use this tagline. Feel the Bern, Trump the Chump. :p

    =D>
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    $_1.JPG

    If he goes down, there is always still hope next time:
    il_570xN.826051682_oh7r.jpg
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,087
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    Rubio's path to the nomination more or less officially ends tonight. He's doing very poorly in the results thus far. It seems that the anatomy lesson that he and Trump put on for the nation in the Thursday debate may have had some impact. I said Thursday night that it takes some effort to make Ted Cruz look presidential, but those two managed to pull it off. We might be seeing that bear out tonight, as Cruz is currently at 51% of the vote in Kansas and has a wide lead in Maine as well.

    There's no way that there's a 3 in 4 chance that Trump is the next POTUS. He's going to go into the general election, assuming he even holds on to be the nominee, as an underdog to Clinton. It'll be his job to dig out from that hole and convince the vast numbers of Americans outside of his 35-42% of the Republican that he's offended, disgusted, and pissed off to come around and vote for him.

    All Trump has to do is repeat the words "she is bought" as many times as he can, over and over, and he will win the election.

    He's going to have an awfully hard time making that charge when he starts raising money himself in the general election. She can also turn right around and say that he was one of those giving her the money and, therefore, that makes him an equal part of the problem.

    A large part of Trump's appeal is his "self-funding", which is a myth in and of itself to begin with. There will be some who will jump ship once he breaks that promise and starts fundraising.

    And Trump's antics are already showing to be a bit tiresome. If he just keeps repeating that she's "bought" and doesn't actually do anything to go into specifics on his plans, which he continues to refuse to do, Clinton will wipe the floor with him.

    Trump cannot act the way he has in the debates in the general election. With there being at that point the very real opportunity to elect the first female president in the nation's history, him resorting to his childish and often times crude antics will only serve to make her look more and more presidential.

    And all Clinton has to do is keep chiding him on his "hands" and he'll take the bait and say something stupid, like he did the other night. If he ventures into that territory on a debate stage with her, the campaign will end that night and lead to a Clinton landslide.

    In the actual debates all he has to do is keep repeating the same three words "she is bought" over and over. Literally, just same those three words in that order as many times as he possibly can in the time that is allotted to him, and he will win. Outside of the debates he has to get into specifics, which he should be able to do by June or when ever it is. Maybe this is just me, but I get the impression that Trump has plans for policy, but his plans aren't formulated enough to stand up to scrutiny yet, so he opts to simply avoid the topic. He wouldn't run if he didn't have at least some vague ideas.

    Finally, on the subject of 'the first Women President', I was recently witness to a discussion between two older women. I did not influence this discussion one bit, but they ended the conversation by saying that they were both terrified by the experience of being in a plane with a women pilot. I swear I am not making this up, nor was a man making them think this way. They came to this conclusion on their own. My point being that only about a third of the population is 'ready' for a women president.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    I'm not an American but I was thinking about my political hopes of days gone.

    Tony Blair seemed a decent bloke .............. But was a bit of a dick.
    Nick Clegg, seemed a decent bloke ............ But was a bit of a dick
    David Cameron, seemed a decent bloke ...... But is a bit of a dick
    So perhaps .....
    Donald Trump seems a bit of a dick ......... But will be a decent bloke ! :))
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,691
    bondjames wrote: »
    $_1.JPG
    Trump WOULD solve the problem or over-population.
    By accident, of course....
    article-2116177-0E5895E000000578-618_634x478.jpg
  • BondJasonBond006BondJasonBond006 on fb and ajb
    Posts: 9,020
    I've just seen into the future circa December 2017.

    These are the leaders of the world then:

    Trump - Cameron - Merkel - Sarkozy - Orban - Erdogan - Putin - Netanyahu

    Honestly, the world is going to hell... :(
  • Posts: 1,631
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".
  • MurdockMurdock The minus world
    Posts: 16,330
    Trumps presidency. :))
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,087
    dalton wrote: »
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".

    The one flaw in this theory: Bernie Sanders failing to get the nomination, combined with 8 years of ineffective democratic rein will result in the lowest democratic turn out in history, allowing Trump to sweep his way into the White house. Republicans win when there is a low voter turn out.
  • chrisisallchrisisall Brosnan Defender Of The Realm
    Posts: 17,691
    Murdock wrote: »
    Trumps presidency. :))

    Some scary shit indeed.
  • MurdockMurdock The minus world
    Posts: 16,330
    chrisisall wrote: »
    Some scary shit indeed.
    I felt the same way about Romney. in 2012.
  • Posts: 1,631
    dalton wrote: »
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".

    The one flaw in this theory: Bernie Sanders failing to get the nomination, combined with 8 years of ineffective democratic rein will result in the lowest democratic turn out in history, allowing Trump to sweep his way into the White house. Republicans win when there is a low voter turn out.

    Trump's candidacy will re-invigorate the Democrats. The majority of people in this country do not want to see Donald Trump as president. Polls have showed this time and time again.

    The Democrats will also get a chunk of angry Republicans voting for them as well. I'll be one of them if I can convince myself to hold my nose and vote for Clinton. If the vote was today, I wouldn't vote, but I've got eight months to convince myself to vote for Clinton, and there are many Republicans (even some in Congress) who have floated the idea that they might do the same.

    There's also the other very real possibility to consider. There's talk now that the conservative wing of the Republican party may mount an independent bid for the White House. The idea being that in order to save the party they have to tank this particular election. A third party run by a conservative guarantees a Clinton or Sanders victory in November.

    Now, with all that said, Trump does have a very real chance to defeat Hillary Clinton. It's just not going to be nearly as easy as you claim it will be. Clinton is a very experienced politician with a massive political machine. Trump, on the other hand, has none of those things going for him.

  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,087
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".

    The one flaw in this theory: Bernie Sanders failing to get the nomination, combined with 8 years of ineffective democratic rein will result in the lowest democratic turn out in history, allowing Trump to sweep his way into the White house. Republicans win when there is a low voter turn out.

    Trump's candidacy will re-invigorate the Democrats. The majority of people in this country do not want to see Donald Trump as president. Polls have showed this time and time again.

    The Democrats will also get a chunk of angry Republicans voting for them as well. I'll be one of them if I can convince myself to hold my nose and vote for Clinton. If the vote was today, I wouldn't vote, but I've got eight months to convince myself to vote for Clinton, and there are many Republicans (even some in Congress) who have floated the idea that they might do the same.

    There's also the other very real possibility to consider. There's talk now that the conservative wing of the Republican party may mount an independent bid for the White House. The idea being that in order to save the party they have to tank this particular election. A third party run by a conservative guarantees a Clinton or Sanders victory in November.

    Now, with all that said, Trump does have a very real chance to defeat Hillary Clinton. It's just not going to be nearly as easy as you claim it will be. Clinton is a very experienced politician with a massive political machine. Trump, on the other hand, has none of those things going for him.

    regarding your first paragraph- The problem is that barely anyone want's to see Hilary as president.

    second paragraph- And the republican's will get a bunch of angry democrats, who wold rather vote for the 'free' candidate than the bought one. They will see this as being more of a protest vote. Either that or they won't vote at all.

    third paragraph- you are right about this, I agree. Republicans would rather have an establishment candidate in office, even if it is a democrat. This could happen.

    I think it comes down to momentum. Trump has the momentum currently. Clinton doesn't gain momentum by being the guaranteed nominee, in a way it works against her. She is very quiet in the headlines at the moment.
    There is no republican that can take the steam from Trump and win it. The party is too fractured for that. It'll either be Trump, or it'll be a brokered convention, or, as you say, they'll get Romney or someone to run as a third party.
  • edited March 2016 Posts: 1,631
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    And if he goes with that strategy, he'll turn those debates into the types of circus that he's turned the last two debates into. The last two debates have really started to hurt his standing nationwide, as we started to see on Super Tuesday when Cruz and Rubio were able to take away three states that Trump was expected to do well in, and we're seeing even more of that today, with Trump in a position to take a real drubbing. Cruz is doing phenomenally ( :-& ) today, which is some early evidence that Trump's debate antics have finally crossed the line and are starting to eat into his support.

    Also, Americans are, despite the worldwide view of us, smarter than that. Trump just repeating that she's bought over and over again, especially when he's a member of the smaller of the two parties and has angered every single demographic out there, isn't a path to victory. It's too simplistic a strategy. The electorate has already proven that they're tired of the mud slinging in the debates and Trump just doing that shtick over and over would just further demoralize voters just like his references to his "hands" and his constant "flexibility".

    The one flaw in this theory: Bernie Sanders failing to get the nomination, combined with 8 years of ineffective democratic rein will result in the lowest democratic turn out in history, allowing Trump to sweep his way into the White house. Republicans win when there is a low voter turn out.

    Trump's candidacy will re-invigorate the Democrats. The majority of people in this country do not want to see Donald Trump as president. Polls have showed this time and time again.

    The Democrats will also get a chunk of angry Republicans voting for them as well. I'll be one of them if I can convince myself to hold my nose and vote for Clinton. If the vote was today, I wouldn't vote, but I've got eight months to convince myself to vote for Clinton, and there are many Republicans (even some in Congress) who have floated the idea that they might do the same.

    There's also the other very real possibility to consider. There's talk now that the conservative wing of the Republican party may mount an independent bid for the White House. The idea being that in order to save the party they have to tank this particular election. A third party run by a conservative guarantees a Clinton or Sanders victory in November.

    Now, with all that said, Trump does have a very real chance to defeat Hillary Clinton. It's just not going to be nearly as easy as you claim it will be. Clinton is a very experienced politician with a massive political machine. Trump, on the other hand, has none of those things going for him.

    regarding your first paragraph- The problem is that barely anyone want's to see Hilary as president.

    second paragraph- And the republican's will get a bunch of angry democrats, who wold rather vote for the 'free' candidate than the bought one. They will see this as being more of a protest vote. Either that or they won't vote at all.

    third paragraph- you are right about this, I agree. Republicans would rather have an establishment candidate in office, even if it is a democrat. This could happen.

    I think it comes down to momentum. Trump has the momentum currently. Clinton doesn't gain momentum by being the guaranteed nominee, in a way it works against her. She is very quiet in the headlines at the moment.
    There is no republican that can take the steam from Trump and win it. The party is too fractured for that. It'll either be Trump, or it'll be a brokered convention, or, as you say, they'll get Romney or someone to run as a third party.

    I think Cruz tonight will emerge as the guy that can catch Trump. It pains me to say that because I want to see Cruz as president even less than I do Trump. If Cruz wins Maine and then goes on to do well in Louisiana, then Cruz will be in great shape.

    This would actually lead to Trump possibly contributing to his own demise in Florida. He's going for the "kill shot" on Rubio there. The problem, though, is that he's best served by Rubio staying in the race, as he helps split the anti-Trump vote. If Cruz does well tonight and then Trump finishes Rubio off in Florida, then Cruz emerges as a very viable threat to Trump and does have a chance to reach 1,237 delegates. Cruz currently trails Trump by less than a 100.

    I don't think Romney will run as a third party candidate. The only way Romney is a presidential candidate in the general election is as the Republican nominee coming out of an open convention. The conservatives will prop some Tea Party lackey up as a third-party candidate and just hope to keep the Republican party from actually coming to an end after November.
  • 4EverBonded4EverBonded the Ballrooms of Mars
    Posts: 12,459
    dalton wrote: »
    dalton wrote: »
    Rubio's path to the nomination more or less officially ends tonight. He's doing very poorly in the results thus far. It seems that the anatomy lesson that he and Trump put on for the nation in the Thursday debate may have had some impact. I said Thursday night that it takes some effort to make Ted Cruz look presidential, but those two managed to pull it off. We might be seeing that bear out tonight, as Cruz is currently at 51% of the vote in Kansas and has a wide lead in Maine as well.

    There's no way that there's a 3 in 4 chance that Trump is the next POTUS. He's going to go into the general election, assuming he even holds on to be the nominee, as an underdog to Clinton. It'll be his job to dig out from that hole and convince the vast numbers of Americans outside of his 35-42% of the Republican that he's offended, disgusted, and pissed off to come around and vote for him.

    All Trump has to do is repeat the words "she is bought" as many times as he can, over and over, and he will win the election.

    He's going to have an awfully hard time making that charge when he starts raising money himself in the general election. She can also turn right around and say that he was one of those giving her the money and, therefore, that makes him an equal part of the problem.

    A large part of Trump's appeal is his "self-funding", which is a myth in and of itself to begin with. There will be some who will jump ship once he breaks that promise and starts fundraising.

    And Trump's antics are already showing to be a bit tiresome. If he just keeps repeating that she's "bought" and doesn't actually do anything to go into specifics on his plans, which he continues to refuse to do, Clinton will wipe the floor with him.

    Trump cannot act the way he has in the debates in the general election. With there being at that point the very real opportunity to elect the first female president in the nation's history, him resorting to his childish and often times crude antics will only serve to make her look more and more presidential.

    And all Clinton has to do is keep chiding him on his "hands" and he'll take the bait and say something stupid, like he did the other night. If he ventures into that territory on a debate stage with her, the campaign will end that night and lead to a Clinton landslide.

    In the actual debates all he has to do is keep repeating the same three words "she is bought" over and over. Literally, just same those three words in that order as many times as he possibly can in the time that is allotted to him, and he will win. Outside of the debates he has to get into specifics, which he should be able to do by June or when ever it is. Maybe this is just me, but I get the impression that Trump has plans for policy, but his plans aren't formulated enough to stand up to scrutiny yet, so he opts to simply avoid the topic. He wouldn't run if he didn't have at least some vague ideas.

    Finally, on the subject of 'the first Women President', I was recently witness to a discussion between two older women. I did not influence this discussion one bit, but they ended the conversation by saying that they were both terrified by the experience of being in a plane with a women pilot. I swear I am not making this up, nor was a man making them think this way. They came to this conclusion on their own. My point being that only about a third of the population is 'ready' for a women president.
    This comes across as totally asinine to me. And just too bad. But again, that is only 2 women. I'm not exactly worried about Hillary being not voted on because she is a woman.
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