NTTD & Corona

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  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,686
    Cinemas in the Chinese city of Dalian have shut down only days after reopening due to a Covid-19 cluster.

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/dalian-china-coronavirus-cinemas-closed-again-1234715423/
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 824
    Boris Johnson has just said that UK can't expect to be through this pandemic until next Summer at least and there may still be difficult times ahead. Summer 2021 has to be a better bet for NTTD than a risky Winter release when many areas are still far from through the pandemic.
  • Posts: 1,314
    The_Return wrote: »
    Matt007 wrote: »
    We have encouraging first stage trials.
    Nothing more.
    That is factually incorrect. One example: https://www.atlantamagazine.com/health/phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trials-start-at-emory-giving-atlantans-a-potential-shot-at-immunity/

    @The_Return Do you ever, ever read and understand anything?

    The article you posted says the results of the phase 2 trials are not in yet. They are progressing to stage 3 without the results of stage 2.

    Quote:
    “In the spring, the first trial, known as Phase 1, expanded to include older adults, and Phase 2 enrolled 600 people, split between those 18 to 55 years old and older adults. Results of those studies haven’t yet been reported.”
  • MeetBondMeetBond Mar-a-lago
    Posts: 27
    NTTD is well and truly, "in the cooker" so to speak. EON and MGM to take a bath this one.
  • Posts: 1,314
    Boris Johnson has just said that UK can't expect to be through this pandemic until next Summer at least and there may still be difficult times ahead. Summer 2021 has to be a better bet for NTTD than a risky Winter release when many areas are still far from through the pandemic.

    This is clearly the case - it’s as plain as day. I don’t know why people are blindly kidding themselves. Summer 2021 isn’t even a given.

    We should Listen to scientists who have nothing to lose or gain rather than populist politicians.

    Practically every country that has eased restriction is experiencing flare ups. Most in their summer when people are outside and weather is less Conducive to transmission.

    November / winter in the northern hemisphere 2020 is not going to be better than today I believe, and even if they do open cinemas, sitting in a mask with a room full of strangers while paying £20 for the privilege is no where near the top of my to do list, Bond or not.
  • Posts: 625
    I can only repeat myself:
    Since May, when most cinemas re-opened in Germany, there was not a single case of Corona, that had any connection to a cinema visit.
    And you don't wear a mask while watching the movie, only when entering and leaving the theatre. As for now I feel much more safe in the theatre (having been there about 40 times since May) than in a restaurant, at work or on public transport.

    https://deadline.com/2020/07/germanys-largest-cinema-organization-calls-for-less-distancing-in-cinemas-only-then-will-cinemas-survive-1202994178/

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    Germany's cinemas being open won't dictate when NTTD or any other US blockbusters will open. The fact that several major releases have been delayed by over half a year in the past 24 hours, it s only a matter of time before the rest of the 2020 slate gets pushed to 2021.

    ----

    Handler says that this would mean that even under an overseas-first release model, a major blockbuster would have to come out in the U.S. no later than three weeks afterwards.

    https://www.thewrap.com/summer-blockbuster-season-is-lost-what-about-the-rest-of-2020/

    So I guess this pretty much confirms a staggered release is impossible to happen for the foreseeable future.
  • Posts: 199
    They should say "f**k it!" and give the movie away free to fans. Stick a free DVD copy on the cover of The Mail On Sunday. Job done.
    We can then all get back to normal and start talking about real things, like who'll be the next James Bond!!!!!!! :))
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 1,314
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    I can only repeat myself:
    Since May, when most cinemas re-opened in Germany, there was not a single case of Corona, that had any connection to a cinema visit.
    And you don't wear a mask while watching the movie, only when entering and leaving the theatre. As for now I feel much more safe in the theatre (having been there about 40 times since May) than in a restaurant, at work or on public transport.

    https://deadline.com/2020/07/germanys-largest-cinema-organization-calls-for-less-distancing-in-cinemas-only-then-will-cinemas-survive-1202994178/

    Germany in my experience has a higher proportion of sensible, intelligent, responsible and compliant people than the uk.

    I’m happy and want to be proven wrong about the release date. But I don’t see it. This is a film that needs to return $400 million to break even.
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 97
    Matt007 wrote: »
    The_Return wrote: »
    Matt007 wrote: »
    We have encouraging first stage trials.
    Nothing more.
    That is factually incorrect. One example: https://www.atlantamagazine.com/health/phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trials-start-at-emory-giving-atlantans-a-potential-shot-at-immunity/

    @The_Return Do you ever, ever read and understand anything?

    The article you posted says the results of the phase 2 trials are not in yet. They are progressing to stage 3 without the results of stage 2.

    Quote:
    “In the spring, the first trial, known as Phase 1, expanded to include older adults, and Phase 2 enrolled 600 people, split between those 18 to 55 years old and older adults. Results of those studies haven’t yet been reported.”

    "Haven't yet been reported" simply means the results are not yet publicly available, not that the scientists conducting those trials don't know the results yet. They wouldn't move to stage 3 without knowing the results of stage two. Anyway that was just one example, there are various other vaccines that are in the final stages of trials: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/3-more-covid-19-vaccines-move-toward-final-stage-of-testing
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 1,314
    Ok.

    You said that you think there will be a vaccine ready by the end of the year. Possibly much sooner.

    We have 120 days to find a vaccine that works maximum. I’ll take you “possibly much sooner” as 2 months.

    Let’s continue this chat On 24th September 2020. I’ll be more than happy to apologise if I’m wrong.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,686
    STX has delayed the US release of Greenland from August 14th to September 25th.
  • Posts: 3,164
    August 26 international rollout for Tenet close to being locked in

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-release-coronavirus-europe-christopher-nolan-1234715604/
  • M_BaljeM_Balje Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Posts: 4,416
    Fantastic Beast 3 going to delayd again of course, there only did research and whole Brazil thing and new actors. January 2021 for Tenet. Pinewood wil possible not avaible for Bond 26 or a starwars movie.

    NTTD wil be first Universal (with MGM) i think there release and all others include one with Paramount should wait. Mi7 wil be delayd to 2022 and already before i thaught Mi8 wil be released in 2023. 2021 wil be for Top Gun 2.
  • antovolk wrote: »
    August 26 international rollout for Tenet close to being locked in

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-release-coronavirus-europe-christopher-nolan-1234715604/

    Sounds great....QUOTE: There are concerns, however, that for a film like “Tenet,” which relies on keeping its secrets close to the chest, a foreign debut could result in piracy, potentially spoiling some of the films surprises.

  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,686
    @antovolk Several articles have mentioned that WB does not want to release Tenet internationally first if they cannot release it domestically within a 3 weeks gap. If this is correct then WB’s are being very unrealistic in their plans as a September release is becoming very unlikely.
  • OOWolfOOWolf Savannah
    Posts: 140
    OOWolf wrote: »
    By this point, I think MGM's last vestige of hope is to be acquired by a streaming service. If all their cards are on the table for Bond itself, then that's a problem. It's not like EON is cranking Bond films out anymore, so they're making a stupid risk if all their eggs go solely into the OO basket.

    The problem is MGM. Even if EON wanted to crank out Bond films at a rapid rate like Cubby's days, they're still under MGM, which needs help from other co-production companies like Sony and Universal in order to put any of these out there. In case everyone forgot, the first deal with Sony originally expired after QOS. From that point, MGM was on their own, but then they went bankrupt, and EON was forced to put Bond 23 on hiatus. Hence a four years passing before we get SF. Then after SP the Sony deal expires again, and it's being run by Tom "Deadpool will never be a hit" Rothman. EON was hoping to find a new co-production company soon after SP, but it took until 2017 to finally happened, but it's a one film deal with Universal because they only want to do it if it has Craig, and he only agreed to do one more.

    So before pre-production work can even begin for Bond 26, NTTD needs to make some bank for MGM to stay in business. Then MGM and EON need to shop around for another co-production studio, but this time the studios are going to be VERY opinionated on who will be cast as Bond before putting THEIR money on a production/distribution deal. The reason why Sony's Amy Pascal was such a big ally for EON was because she was going to support EON's choice of Daniel Craig, whereas any other studio head might have balked at that choice. This will likely elongate the casting process, thus pushing back the film further.

    This is why MGM being bought out by a big company could make things potentially smoother for EON. Perhaps a deal with Apple that Bond would still get traditional theatrical releases, but they would have exclusive streaming rights for the franchise on Apple TV+, along with all other MGM catalog. It would essentially be the AppleMGM. No longer just a small office with people begging other studios to do more remakes of their catalog that nobody will go to.

    Thanks for the info, Python, didn't know about a bit of that. By that token, MGM technically shouldn't even exist anymore. Why are they fighting so hard to keep it alive? I mean, I love the lion and all, but still hehe...
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    OOWolf wrote: »
    OOWolf wrote: »
    By this point, I think MGM's last vestige of hope is to be acquired by a streaming service. If all their cards are on the table for Bond itself, then that's a problem. It's not like EON is cranking Bond films out anymore, so they're making a stupid risk if all their eggs go solely into the OO basket.

    The problem is MGM. Even if EON wanted to crank out Bond films at a rapid rate like Cubby's days, they're still under MGM, which needs help from other co-production companies like Sony and Universal in order to put any of these out there. In case everyone forgot, the first deal with Sony originally expired after QOS. From that point, MGM was on their own, but then they went bankrupt, and EON was forced to put Bond 23 on hiatus. Hence a four years passing before we get SF. Then after SP the Sony deal expires again, and it's being run by Tom "Deadpool will never be a hit" Rothman. EON was hoping to find a new co-production company soon after SP, but it took until 2017 to finally happened, but it's a one film deal with Universal because they only want to do it if it has Craig, and he only agreed to do one more.

    So before pre-production work can even begin for Bond 26, NTTD needs to make some bank for MGM to stay in business. Then MGM and EON need to shop around for another co-production studio, but this time the studios are going to be VERY opinionated on who will be cast as Bond before putting THEIR money on a production/distribution deal. The reason why Sony's Amy Pascal was such a big ally for EON was because she was going to support EON's choice of Daniel Craig, whereas any other studio head might have balked at that choice. This will likely elongate the casting process, thus pushing back the film further.

    This is why MGM being bought out by a big company could make things potentially smoother for EON. Perhaps a deal with Apple that Bond would still get traditional theatrical releases, but they would have exclusive streaming rights for the franchise on Apple TV+, along with all other MGM catalog. It would essentially be the AppleMGM. No longer just a small office with people begging other studios to do more remakes of their catalog that nobody will go to.

    Thanks for the info, Python, didn't know about a bit of that. By that token, MGM technically shouldn't even exist anymore. Why are they fighting so hard to keep it alive? I mean, I love the lion and all, but still hehe...

    I won't mind having a Bond film with no roaring lion at the start if, you know, we get the gunbarrel in its proper spot. ;-)
  • MakeshiftPythonMakeshiftPython “Baja?!”
    Posts: 8,000
    Shame that Tom Cruise couldn’t revive UA when he briefly ran it.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    Shame that Tom Cruise couldn’t revive UA when he briefly ran it.

    Very good pun. ;-)

    But I agree, I really enjoyed his WW2 thriller Valkyrie he did under the UA brand. A shame it didn't go further after that.
  • Posts: 3,164
    @antovolk Several articles have mentioned that WB does not want to release Tenet internationally first if they cannot release it domestically within a 3 weeks gap. If this is correct then WB’s are being very unrealistic in their plans as a September release is becoming very unlikely.

    My feeling is that they're gonna have to let the US piracy thing slide if they want to 'help' international by releasing it there first. It seems there's still some working out to do on their part on how the film is released in the States - there was a trade article mentioning that WB is considering opening the film September in states that are opened up and slowly expand as cities and regions are coming out of lockdown, but the AT&T CEO kinda shot that idea down the next day
  • matt_umatt_u better known as Mr. Roark
    edited July 2020 Posts: 4,343
    Matt007 wrote: »
    Jan1985 wrote: »
    I can only repeat myself:
    Since May, when most cinemas re-opened in Germany, there was not a single case of Corona, that had any connection to a cinema visit.
    And you don't wear a mask while watching the movie, only when entering and leaving the theatre. As for now I feel much more safe in the theatre (having been there about 40 times since May) than in a restaurant, at work or on public transport.

    https://deadline.com/2020/07/germanys-largest-cinema-organization-calls-for-less-distancing-in-cinemas-only-then-will-cinemas-survive-1202994178/

    Germany in my experience has a higher proportion of sensible, intelligent, responsible and compliant people than the uk.

    I’m happy and want to be proven wrong about the release date. But I don’t see it. This is a film that needs to return $400 million to break even.

    I believe the breaking even point is $600/650 million given the $250 million production budget. They already lost $30 millions for marketing.
    antovolk wrote: »
    August 26 international rollout for Tenet close to being locked in

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-release-coronavirus-europe-christopher-nolan-1234715604/

    Why they not mention Italy :( where theaters are open since almost two months and the Covid situation is better than France or Spain right now. I’d go to see it.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    antovolk wrote: »
    August 26 international rollout for Tenet close to being locked in

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-release-coronavirus-europe-christopher-nolan-1234715604/

    "Exhibitors in the U.K., France and Spain have been told by the studio to plan for an Aug. 26-28 launch.""

    "It’s worth noting, however, that given the fast-changing nature of the global health crisis, these plans could change if the situation worsens and more hotspots emerge."

    Barely a day after this article was posted, the first major problem has appeared: the Spanish box office may not be open (or fully open) by late August. The region of Catalonia (the second most populated in the country) has started to shut down most non-essential businesses due to a surge in Covid-19 cases. The same restrictions is on the verge of happening in Madrid, the third most populated area in Spain.

    Add to that the problem I mentioned earlier that the US box office will not be opened within a 3 weeks gap to the international rollout, this plan by WB seems nipped in the bud before they even confirmed their intentions.
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 3,164
    antovolk wrote: »
    August 26 international rollout for Tenet close to being locked in

    https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-release-coronavirus-europe-christopher-nolan-1234715604/

    "Exhibitors in the U.K., France and Spain have been told by the studio to plan for an Aug. 26-28 launch.""

    "It’s worth noting, however, that given the fast-changing nature of the global health crisis, these plans could change if the situation worsens and more hotspots emerge."

    Barely a day after this article was posted, the first major problem has appeared: the Spanish box office may not be open (or fully open) by late August. The region of Catalonia (the second most populated in the country) has started to shut down most non-essential businesses due to a surge in Covid-19 cases. The same restrictions is on the verge of happening in Madrid, the third most populated area in Spain.

    Add to that the problem I mentioned earlier that the US box office will not be opened within a 3 weeks gap to the international rollout, this plan by WB seems nipped in the bud before they even confirmed their intentions.

    The US gap aside - that's a separate question - I think instead of pushing the entire European launch until later they just open it without areas that are closed (like Spain) down.

    Ultimately I believe that's what WB and Nolan want at this point - with AT&T perhaps (remember John Stankey is on that side of it) pushing back, especially on the idea of doing the same in the US.

    Continually pushing back because this area is closed or that area is closed is defeating the purpose of the entire staggered plan which is to give the film to cinemas in countries that are open and crying out for new content.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    @antovolk don't get me wrong, I would love to see Tenet (and other Hollywood films) open up in Europe, even if the US box office is closed until mid-2021. It is getting quite unnerving that the US's botched Covid-19 response is holding the entire world hostage. But the problem is that at the end of the day I can't see the studios growing some balls and releasing their big budget films without the assurance that the domestic box office will open at all until 2021. This whole situation is quite unfortunate. Tenet could have released in Europe 2 weeks ago already, as planned pre-Covid. Which as we can see now, it could very well have made quite a bit of money in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy given it would literally have been the only major release on the European market for an entire 2 months. But I do understand that the studios recoup more money domestically, hence their hesitation.
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 3,164
    @antovolk don't get me wrong, I would love to see Tenet (and other Hollywood films) open up in Europe, even if the US box office is closed until mid-2021. It is getting quite unnerving that the US's botched Covid-19 response is holding the entire world hostage. But the problem is that at the end of the day I can't see the studios growing some balls and releasing their big budget films without the assurance that the domestic box office will open at all until 2021. This whole situation is quite unfortunate. Tenet could have released in Europe 2 weeks ago already, as planned pre-Covid. Which as we can see now, it could very well have made quite a bit of money in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy given it would literally have been the only major release on the European market for an entire 2 months. But I do understand that the studios recoup more money domestically, hence their hesitation.

    The box office split is ever so slightly more in their favour domestically, plus there are cases where it's not WB themselves releasing it in some territories but third parties (in Eastern Europe mostly) so that's an extra cut. But from my understanding a lot of this is down to 1. ego and 'how it's always been' with the US being the first territory to launch a big film (don't forget how they're perfectly happy to do this the other way round) and 2. Piracy.

    But I think industry consensus so far is quite clear in that regard, that's what the non US industry wants. We'll see what WB ultimately does, it seems other major studios for sure are less keen on the idea, intensifying the pressure.
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    edited July 2020 Posts: 15,686
    Looks like the Spanish situation is degrading rapidly - the UK has added the country to its quarantine list. This casts major doubt on the Formula 1 race that is supposed to be hosted there on August 16th.

    Hopefully this does not mean the second wave will hit Europe much sooner than expected. Spain is not the only European country where cases are currently rising again.
  • edited July 2020 Posts: 824
    I appreciate the plight of the businesses that own cinemas but with a real possibility of a second wave before the end of the year and any reliable, effective vaccine not being available until 2021, a November release date appears reckless and could risk more wasted cash on publicity. At this point, I'm almost inclined to say go for Thanksgiving 2021. By then, an effective vaccine may well have been discovered, manufactured and distributed. We may finally be out of the panademic and the film can safely open across the world in cinemas.
  • echoecho 007 in New York
    Posts: 5,921
    Let's be realistic, though. The fastest vaccine we have developed is mumps, and that took 4 years.

    https://discoveries.childrenshospital.org/covid-19-vaccine/
  • DaltonCraig007DaltonCraig007 They say, "Evil prevails when good men fail to act." What they ought to say is, "Evil prevails."
    Posts: 15,686
    2 countries where the box office has improved quite a bit since cinemas re-opened is Japan and South Korea. In the past couple of days they have recorded their highest rise in daily cases in over 3 months. South Korea is back above 100 cases, and Japan is nearing 1,000 cases. If such markets start closing again, debating about a staggered release will quickly become moot point. If WB/Nolan wanted a foreign rollout first, it is possible that window of opportunity has already ended.

    Brazil has just cancelled most of their New Year's Eve parties and carnivals, and we are still in July.
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