Oscars 2021 predictions

The list of nominees has been posted, so it's time, once again, to place your bets :

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/2021-oscars-nominations-list-nominees-1234928711/

I must say that, due mainly to the Covid crisis, I haven't seen any of the movies. But I could well see Carey Mulligan winning the best actress one. And later on, like every year, I'll post the songs, and my opinion on them. But it sure gonna be a very strange ceremony.
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Comments

  • ImpertinentGoonImpertinentGoon Everybody needs a hobby.
    edited March 2021 Posts: 1,203
    I have literally not seen a single film nominated in the big categories. Not that I am that much of a film buff, but normally, one has seen at least seen a few here and there. There are 21 films in Best Picture, Director, the 4 Acting categories, Best Animated and the 2 Screenplay categories. Not a single one.
    Here in Germany, Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are obviously on Netflix and Sound of Metal is apparently on Amazon Prime (I may watch that tonight), but the other 5 Best Picture nominees are supposed to get released in cinemas at various dates in April - only that I don't really see cinemas being open in April with the way things are going.

    So going off of nothing but discourse I've heard:
    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Director: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
    Best Actress: Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
    Supporting Actress: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

    I am not going to wade into Animated and the Screenplays as I have literally no clue, here. Pixar, Aaron Sorkin and the Best Picture pick (in my case Nomadland) are always good bets, though.
  • MalloryMallory Do mosquitoes have friends?
    edited March 2021 Posts: 1,794
    I suppose, reading through the nominations, Billie Eilish will be eligible next year for NTTD.

    Havent seen most of them, only real comment is that it is disappointing Soul is not a Best Picture nominee.
  • Mallory wrote: »
    Havent seen most of them, only real comment is that it is disappointing Soul is not a Best Picture nominee.

    Agreed on Soul - I thought it was a better film than the nominated ones I've seen (Mank and Chicago 7).

    A film I'm rooting for is Another Round. Too bad Mads didn't get a Best Actor nomination - he was getting big last minute buzz.
  • Posts: 5,344
    As promised, the songs :



    Not bad at all.



    A possible winner.



    That one too. At least in the ESC ;)



    If that one wins, it will enter a very exclusive club : songs in a language other than english winning. But it would deserve it.



    No, I don't think it's going to win. Still, nice effort.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns The Bright Side of the Road.
    Posts: 19,403
  • ImpertinentGoonImpertinentGoon Everybody needs a hobby.
    edited April 2021 Posts: 1,203
    So going off of nothing but discourse I've heard:
    Best Picture: Nomadland [correct]
    Best Director: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) [correct]
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) Anthony Hopkins
    Best Actress: Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) Frances McDormand
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) [correct]
    Supporting Actress: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) Youn Yuh-jung

    50%. Not good, not bad. Didn't watch the ceremony, as it is in the middle of the night here in Germany, but going from comments I've heard and read, it seems to have been quite boring and closing out with a win for Hopkins who wasn't even there seems to have been quite weird.
  • Posts: 7,653
    Watching paint fry would have been more exciting and they really went overboard with the PC stuff, I am sure this show is losing viewers fast as the show has become very unglamorous and not funny to watch.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns The Bright Side of the Road.
    Posts: 19,403
    Did not bother this year, looking at the general reaction to the event seems I was wise.
  • Posts: 829
    Didn't the celebration reward diversity and not pure talent anymore?
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 38,233
    I haven't watched in years but there are some very strong winners there, particularly Hopkins, Kaluuya, and Yuh-jung.
  • ImpertinentGoonImpertinentGoon Everybody needs a hobby.
    Posts: 1,203
    Didn't the celebration reward diversity and not pure talent anymore?

    No.

    They will introduce new rules for Best Picture for the 2024 Oscars. None of the other categories are touched by the new rules. The rules only govern eligibility. There is no diversity bonus or something. And those standards they have to meet are not that hard, honestly, so I don't expect any professionally produced films with an eye towards a Best Picture nomination or win to struggle getting over the hurdles.
    Really, the only thing I find weird about this is that it may force LGBT people to come out in their workplace. I am not part of that group myself, so I don't really want to speculate on the merits and demerits of being out, but having to register your sexual orientation at your place of work to make sure the project you are working on is eligible for the biggest prize in the industry seems strange to me.
  • Posts: 1,841
    The Oscars used to be an event, but that was just a waste of time. I used to love to make predictions and look forward to it. This year, I was barely aware it was Oscar night. One writer compared it to an insurance awards event rather than Hollywood's biggest night, which I think is an accurate description.

    I realize the limitations due to the pandemic, but I understand the Grammys, which I didn't bother with, at least put on an entertaining show, something they forgot here.

    Bond got some recognition. DJ Questlove played the LALD theme going into a commercial. In memoriam recognized Connery, Diana Rigg, Peter Lamont and Earl Cameron. There may have been another Bond alum or 2, can't recall. No Honor Blackman. I was only slightly surprised that she wasn't included, but why not her while Earl Cameron made it in? After all, she played one of the most memorably-named characters in cinema history.
  • RichardTheBruceRichardTheBruce I'm motivated by my Duty.
    Posts: 11,241
    Also
    Max von Sydow
    Michael Apted
    Yaphet Kotto
    Helen McRory
    Rémy Julienne

    Honor Blackman was a glaring omission as you said. I could also do without the mini-lecture leading into it. Respect warrants giving the focus and honor to those being remembered.

    This YouTube version of it loses that introduction.

    93rd Oscars In Memoriam


  • Posts: 5,344
    That omission, glaring as it is for us Bond fans, is understandable : Diana Rigg was still active all these years in a few interntional projects (Game of Thrones, anyone ?) while Honor Blackman's career had been confined to the UK (the last I've seen her was as the victim in an episode of Midsomer Murders), and thus under the radar for the predominantly american people forming the Academy. Still, I do agree, she should have been there.
  • edited April 2021 Posts: 829
    Didn't the celebration reward diversity and not pure talent anymore?

    No.

    They will introduce new rules for Best Picture for the 2024 Oscars. None of the other categories are touched by the new rules. The rules only govern eligibility. There is no diversity bonus or something. And those standards they have to meet are not that hard, honestly, so I don't expect any professionally produced films with an eye towards a Best Picture nomination or win to struggle getting over the hurdles.
    Really, the only thing I find weird about this is that it may force LGBT people to come out in their workplace. I am not part of that group myself, so I don't really want to speculate on the merits and demerits of being out, but having to register your sexual orientation at your place of work to make sure the project you are working on is eligible for the biggest prize in the industry seems strange to me.


    Thanks for the precision, I heard some talking about new rules last year, happy to see that it not as bad as I thought.
  • For curiousity's sake I'd love to know the actual voting numbers for the Oscars and seeing how tight (or not) some of the categories were. Obviously, they'd never reveal that data although it would be fun to see.
  • ImpertinentGoonImpertinentGoon Everybody needs a hobby.
    Posts: 1,203
    Yeah, especially this year when apparently a not small number of eligible voters quite openly said they hadn't watched most of the films.. Did they still vote? Who did they vote for?
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 38,233
    Yeah, especially this year when apparently a not small number of eligible voters quite openly said they hadn't watched most of the films.. Did they still vote? Who did they vote for?

    That happens every year, it seems. The awards are meaningless to me if people are just voting for whatever and not even taking the time to watch all of the nominations and engage in some fruitful debate as to which is most deserving. Some have said they don't even bother with the animation category and merely ask their younger family members to choose one.
  • ThunderpussyThunderpussy My Secret Lair
    Posts: 13,384
    Given the tiny viewing figures, I think most of the Public don't even care about the Oscars any more.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    edited April 2021 Posts: 38,233
    Given the tiny viewing figures, I think most of the Public don't even care about the Oscars any more.

    They really don't. Most of them aren't even aware it's on. I tuned out to awards shows years ago, wouldn't have known it was airing had my buddy not mentioned it. I love most of those winning actors/films, it was a surprisingly good year, considering the pandemic, but awards season just isn't for me anymore, especially when there's not much merit behind it all.
  • MaxCasinoMaxCasino United States
    Posts: 3,036
    At least Harvey Weinstein isn’t around to rig it in his favor anymore.
  • Posts: 1,841
    For curiousity's sake I'd love to know the actual voting numbers for the Oscars and seeing how tight (or not) some of the categories were. Obviously, they'd never reveal that data although it would be fun to see.

    People have been asking about that for years. I am curious as to why they guard that so closely. Cause I personally have no interest in Nomadland or many of the other Best Picture winners.
  • BT3366 wrote: »
    For curiousity's sake I'd love to know the actual voting numbers for the Oscars and seeing how tight (or not) some of the categories were. Obviously, they'd never reveal that data although it would be fun to see.

    People have been asking about that for years. I am curious as to why they guard that so closely. Cause I personally have no interest in Nomadland or many of the other Best Picture winners.

    I suppose the legal setup with the 3rd-party auditor prevents disclosure. And this lack of disclosure feeds the whole media machine and criticisms about there not enough POC being recognized, or why was film X not nominated, etc. Maybe film X finished 6th in qualification voting, or there was a close 3-way race for Best Actor with the octogenarian getting just 1% more votes than the media favourite.
  • DeathToSpies84DeathToSpies84 Haydock, England
    Posts: 243
    Anthony Hopkins winning was thoroughly deserved.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 38,233
    Anthony Hopkins winning was thoroughly deserved.

    Absolutely. Through a career of great performances, his role in The Father is one of the best.
  • Posts: 341
    Haven't seen The Father yet, looking forward to it, Hopkins really is in class of his own when he's on top form. I have been quite disgusted with some of the reaction to Hopkins win however, largely based on the feeling that Chadwick Boseman should have won postumously. One no-mark even referred to Hopkins as "an old white man".You know, that "old white man" with a sixty year career, Oscar and Bafta winner and nominee, acclaimed stage actor and one of the most successful British actors of his generation.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns The Bright Side of the Road.
    Posts: 19,403
  • ImpertinentGoonImpertinentGoon Everybody needs a hobby.
    Posts: 1,203
    Didn't predict that, for sure.
  • Fire_and_Ice_ReturnsFire_and_Ice_Returns The Bright Side of the Road.
    Posts: 19,403
    Initially I thought it was staged until Will started shouting after.
  • MajorDSmytheMajorDSmythe Moderator
    Posts: 13,101
    It could still be staged.... even though this would be taking it a bit far. Rock had a chance to come back with "At least I didn't make The Wild Wild West."

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