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Will the 50 year jubilee help pushing the boxoffice of 'SkyFall' to a gross 900 million worldwide?

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  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited October 2012 Posts: 11,119
    Samuel001 wrote:
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    Again, this is my prediction for 'Skyfall':
    domestic (US) gross: $265,00,000 - 29.4%
    foreign (rest) gross: $635,000,000 - 70.6%

    Skyfall is on track to take $200 - 215 million in the US. No way does it earn nearly $100 more than the last films.

    We will see, we will see ;-). I would laugh if it would be the average of your $207 million and my $265 million = $236 million ;). By the way, with my prediction $265 million for the US I was already incorporating some US backlash, as the franchise lost some popularity compared to 'The Dark Knight' and 'Jason Bourne'.

    But make no mistake: 'The Dark Knight' is finished. I only can see a 'Robin' movie happening in the long term. And 'The Bourne Legacy'? Well, we haven't talked about that one yet no? Apparently, the Bourne franchise can't cope with Matt Damon's loss ATM. Bit like Sean's loss for OHMSS.

    In that environment, the audience that went to see TDK and Jason Bourne, can now find solace in Agent James Bond 007.

    Moreover, a four year -or at least a 3+ year- absence can have a true healing effect. One should take that into account as well:

    --> $ 97,600,000 - 17th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'The Man With The Golden Gun'
    --> $185,400,000 - 05th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'The Spy Who Loved Me' (From TMWTG to TSWLM a 3 year gap)
    --> $156,167,015 - 22nd succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'Licence To Kill'
    --> $352,194,034 - 12th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'GoldenEye' (From LTK to GE a 6 year gap)
    --> $361,832,400 - 14th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'The World Is Not Enough'
    --> $431,971,116 - 11th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'Die Another Day' (From TWINE to DAD a 3 year gap)
    --> $431,971,116 - 11th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'Die Another Day'
    --> $594,239,066 - 06th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'Casino Royale' (From DAD to CR a 4 year gap)
    --> $586,090,727 - 09th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'Quantum Of Solace'
    --> $? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? - ? ?th succesful Bond Film with inflation adjustment - 'SkyFall' (From QOS to SF a 4 year gap)

    Here's a nice graph for you guys:
    8142445708_683fa658e1_b.jpg

    I think 'SkyFall' will certainly catch up with 'Live And Let Die' on this graph, officially kicking in a new 'renaissance era' of Bond.
  • Samuel001Samuel001 Moderator
    Posts: 13,350
    Box office mojo has upped it's tracking for Skyfall to $223 million with an $80 million opening weekend. That seems about right and would be one hell of a result.
  • ChampionAlonsoChampionAlonso
    edited November 2012 Posts: 389
    No way! I will be very pleased if it gets 700 million.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    ChampionAlonso wrote:
    No way! I will be very pleased if it gets 700 million.

    That would be a huge letdown financially. For me that is. And especially when taking into account inflation correction.
  • mnhettiamnhettia
    Posts: 203
    from boxofficemojo ...

    3. Skyfall (Nov. 9)
    The latest James Bond movie arrives four years after Quantum of Solace set a new franchise record ($168.4 million) while bumming tons of fans out with its relentless, forgettable action and meandering, convoluted story. Historically, though, the reception for the last entry hasn't really affected the performance of the next one: Die Another Day is widely reviled, but that didn't stop Casino Royale from setting a new record in 2006. With killer previews, an Adele theme song that's getting tons of radio play, and some of the best reviews in the franchise's history, expect a new high mark to be set by Skyfall. Forecast: $185 million

    I think/hope it will pass 200 mil ...
  • LeChiffreLeChiffre
    Posts: 1,548
    Come on America, please don't let the rest of the world down!
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    mnhettia wrote:
    from boxofficemojo ...

    3. Skyfall (Nov. 9)
    The latest James Bond movie arrives four years after Quantum of Solace set a new franchise record ($168.4 million) while bumming tons of fans out with its relentless, forgettable action and meandering, convoluted story. Historically, though, the reception for the last entry hasn't really affected the performance of the next one: Die Another Day is widely reviled, but that didn't stop Casino Royale from setting a new record in 2006. With killer previews, an Adele theme song that's getting tons of radio play, and some of the best reviews in the franchise's history, expect a new high mark to be set by Skyfall. Forecast: $185 million

    I think/hope it will pass 200 mil ...

    Inflation adjusted, 185 million would be quite a disappointment for me. Especially after a four year hiatus. I think I feel a bit more of a 'Moonraker' vibe as well, money-wise. That movie followed some trends, especially Star Wars. And it worked. The audiences in the US loved it.

    By the way, predictions are still predictions. And Boxofficemojo's $185 million is way out of line, wayyy too careful and unrealistic.
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    I read that article by box office mojo and it was very conservative in it's estimates as it also predicted the hobbit will only make $330 mil in the US around the same as the two towers after tens years of inflation, hype and 3d adding to the hobbit gross. Anyway back to bond 185 mil is a bit low maybe but he is an expert and his basing it on previous bonds and inflation but i think it will creep over $200 mil based on stunning reviews. A problem it may face is lack of theatres in the US.It is being released 3,400 of them basically the same as the last film but unbelievably 300 less then this weekends wreck it ralph. What are they thinking in America?
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/skyfall-sets-new-uk-box-office-record/5048562.article

    Good news in the UK breaks opening week record! hopefully it does not completely drop as huge opening weeks can lead to burning of demand.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    My god.......it's crazy here in Barcelona......Wanted to buy tickets for tomorrow. At 13:00 CET there were still enough seats at Yelmo Icaria Cinema. But as my Yelmo Card was malfunctioning...I had to wait. At 14:00 CET: Entire Saturday sold out!
  • RogueAgentRogueAgent
    Posts: 12,506
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    My god.......it's crazy here in Barcelona......Wanted to buy tickets for tomorrow. At 13:00 CET there were still enough seats at Yelmo Icaria Cinema. But as my Yelmo Card was malfunctioning...I had to wait. At 14:00 CET: Entire Saturday sold out!

    It will be worth the wait! Its great to hear shows selling out around the world!
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    RogueAgent wrote:
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    My god.......it's crazy here in Barcelona......Wanted to buy tickets for tomorrow. At 13:00 CET there were still enough seats at Yelmo Icaria Cinema. But as my Yelmo Card was malfunctioning...I had to wait. At 14:00 CET: Entire Saturday sold out!

    It will be worth the wait! Its great to hear shows selling out around the world!

    Well, I managed to get two tickets for me and my friend. But it's more to the front. Grrr...
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited November 2012 Posts: 11,119
    'Skyfall' stands at a staggering $287,000,000.00 (!! #:-S!!) as of November 4th! It earned back its total production budget of $200 million in less than a week! And it still needs to open in the USA.

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=bond23.htm
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    Yh very impressive making back its budget of $150 mil in 10 days. I think it will definitely crack 800 mil worldwide now due to the holiday period and a great start.
  • GermanladyGermanlady
    Posts: 6,601
    It only dropped 20%..
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    Yh germanlady it's UK gross is unbelievable apparently it's made more then Avatar had during it's first 10 days and Avatar is the highest gross in UK history. I remember seeing it at the cinema 2 weeks after it's release madness all sold out for screening after screening Bond must be as good.
  • Vancouver007Vancouver007
    Posts: 42
    It's already made $20 million more in one week then the latest Bourne movie has total..... If anyone is comparing.
  • GermanladyGermanlady
    Posts: 6,601
    Holdovers were nothing less than stunning. The UK fell off just 21% from its opening weekend to gross $25.7 and bring the 10-day market cume to jaw-dropping $85.8 million. France added $14.3 in its 2nd frame to bring the market cume to $30.0, already passing the lifetime of Casino Royale and a day from passing Quantum Of Solace. The Fri-Sat-Sunday portion of the weekend fell off just 20% from last weekend’s opening. RUSSIA was off a good 47% from its opening, adding $5.2 to bring the market cume to $$16.1. BRAZIL fell just 5% from its opening frame ($3.4/$7.8 cume), KOREA was down 49% ($3.0/$11.4), SWEDEN fell off just 2% from its opening frame ($2.8/$8.1 cume), DENMARK fell 15% ($2.7/$7.5), BELGIUM was up 6% for Fri-Sun ($2.6/$4.9), POLAND fell just 24% from its opening ($1.9/$5.7), NORWAY was off 48% ($1.5/$6.5), and FINLAND fell 12% ($1.3/$4.1).
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Germanlady wrote:
    Holdovers were nothing less than stunning. The UK fell off just 21% from its opening weekend to gross $25.7 and bring the 10-day market cume to jaw-dropping $85.8 million. France added $14.3 in its 2nd frame to bring the market cume to $30.0, already passing the lifetime of Casino Royale and a day from passing Quantum Of Solace. The Fri-Sat-Sunday portion of the weekend fell off just 20% from last weekend’s opening. RUSSIA was off a good 47% from its opening, adding $5.2 to bring the market cume to $$16.1. BRAZIL fell just 5% from its opening frame ($3.4/$7.8 cume), KOREA was down 49% ($3.0/$11.4), SWEDEN fell off just 2% from its opening frame ($2.8/$8.1 cume), DENMARK fell 15% ($2.7/$7.5), BELGIUM was up 6% for Fri-Sun ($2.6/$4.9), POLAND fell just 24% from its opening ($1.9/$5.7), NORWAY was off 48% ($1.5/$6.5), and FINLAND fell 12% ($1.3/$4.1).

    That's the secret of a true box office hit :-). Thunderball-proportions are really starting to become visible now.
  • Samuel001Samuel001 Moderator
    Posts: 13,350
    We're still going to need a near $300 million US hit for that. As far as internationally it's doing well.
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    How much did Thunderball make inflation adjusted over a billion?
  • Samuel001Samuel001 Moderator
    Posts: 13,350
    htall90 wrote:
    How much did Thunderball make inflation adjusted over a billion?

    It's all in the box office thread.

    As of today, the total stands at $1,037,291,060.32.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Samuel001 wrote:
    We're still going to need a near $300 million US hit for that. As far as internationally it's doing well.

    That's not going to happen for sure Samuel001. Those amounts are more logical for fantasy-franchises. Nah, I think it'll earn less in the USA: around $265 million, IMAX figures included.
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    cool thanks Samuel. Had a look the only film that made a billion without 300 mill dollars in US was pirates 4 which made 241 mil US and a massive 802 mil internationally. Can skyfall do the same?
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    htall90 wrote:
    cool thanks Samuel. Had a look the only film that made a billion without 300 mill dollars in US was pirates 4 which made 241 mil US and a massive 802 mil internationally. Can skyfall do the same?

    I think we all are closely following the TOP 5 of inflation adjusted box office grosses of Bond films:

    1. $1,037,291,060.32 - Thunderball
    2. $ 932,346,267.74 - Goldfinger
    3. $ 843,280,463.96 - Live And Let Die
    4. $ 773,204,227.54 - You Only Live Twice
    5. $ 707,967,950.50 - The Spy Who Loved Me

    'Skyfall' Beating 'Thunderball' and 'Goldfinger'? Nah, I am pretty certain not. But beating TSWLM, YOLT and LALD, ending up as 3rd best inflation corrected Bond film? That's possible.
  • BondBugBondBug
    Posts: 158
    This is amazing. We could be looking at the first BILLION DOLLAR BOND!
  • BondBugBondBug
    Posts: 158
    Gustav_Graves wrote:
    Samuel001 wrote:
    We're still going to need a near $300 million US hit for that. As far as internationally it's doing well.

    That's not going to happen for sure Samuel001. Those amounts are more logical for fantasy-franchises. Nah, I think it'll earn less in the USA: around $265 million, IMAX figures included.


    Hi Gustav! $265 million is pretty much "near $300 million. I am not following how you can predict $265 million and say "for sure" it is not going to be near $300 million. Please forgive me if I misunderstand.
  • htall90htall90
    Posts: 277
    I agree Gustav it should finish at least 4th just hoping it continues to hold well. Also hope Americans choose it in it's 2nd week over twilight finale because to get to 250 mil plus you need to appeal to more then Bonds traditional fan base and Twilight takes a lot of these fans. Unfortunately twilight is tracking to be huge over 140 mil probably 150 plus so this may effect Skyfall in the US because a movie that size effects badly any other film on the market accept animated movies but maybe skyfall is different from other films and bonds in general. As a franchise movie they tend to open huge and fall quickly especially is US where franchise fatigue has taken hold of a lot of big franchises recently.
  • Tobester95Tobester95
    Posts: 117
    htall90 wrote:
    I agree Gustav it should finish at least 4th just hoping it continues to hold well. Also hope Americans choose it in it's 2nd week over twilight finale because to get to 250 mil plus you need to appeal to more then Bonds traditional fan base and Twilight takes a lot of these fans. Unfortunately twilight is tracking to be huge over 140 mil probably 150 plus so this may effect Skyfall in the US because a movie that size effects badly any other film on the market accept animated movies but maybe skyfall is different from other films and bonds in general. As a franchise movie they tend to open huge and fall quickly especially is US where franchise fatigue has taken hold of a lot of big franchises recently.

    It's a shame because Twilight is a pile of sh*t.

  • sirseanisbondsirseanisbond
    Posts: 2,189
    I can't wait for the Bond film franchise to break the highest grossing movie series record which is currently held by Harry Potter. It's a difference of $2 Billion or something but eventually it will happen because Bond films will continue to be made, where as all the Potter films are done.
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