It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
^ Back to Top
The MI6 Community is unofficial and in no way associated or linked with EON Productions, MGM, Sony Pictures, Activision or Ian Fleming Publications. Any views expressed on this website are of the individual members and do not necessarily reflect those of the Community owners. Any video or images displayed in topics on MI6 Community are embedded by users from third party sites and as such MI6 Community and its owners take no responsibility for this material.
James Bond News • James Bond Articles • James Bond Magazine
Comments
What do you predict for Germany?
"Skyfall" made $85 million,
"Spectre" made $73 million.
"Tenet" only made $13 million so far.
Tenet $6,170,971 QOS $6,677,673
but the badnews be is that Dutch cinema's are no longer aloud to have more then 30 people in one room again since 29 September 2020. Earlier 100 since 1 July 2020 is pushed back to 30, that also be case between 1 June and 30 June 2020. Between 12 February and 01 June cinema's be closed.
Stil you can't order tickets for 15 November or later and other days are sold out.
I think SF and SP numbers are off the table....
So it's very difficult to tell...I'd say that perhaps a 50-60% drop would be expected across Europe. Which means NTTD could optimistically make $30-40m in Germany. However, as you say Tenet has only made $13m to date. So that might be an indicator that Bond could be looking at around $15-20m on a more caution analysis. If those are the numbers, then the consensus would be that Bond was wrong to open in Autumn 2020.
A big factor will be the reviews. If the film gets a tepid response like SP, then there is a glass ceiling and anything beyond $500m would be a massive accomplishment. We are seeing that take place currently with Tenet.
What would help NTTD is an announcement in October that a vaccine has been approved. Widespread vaccinations would obviously not take place overnight, but the markets would improve and public confidence would increase in turn. It's these two things which are needed for financial viability in the theatrical space currently.
One thing I'm curious about is how hard it will hit the marketing that there will be a very limited or maybe non-existent press tour. I never cared for it usually. I don't want to see the Rome, Paris, Zurich premiere, etc. However, now I can't have it. I want it..........
One thing that I'm convinced will kick the film in the balls is the lack of Royal World Premiere. I know it's all pomp and ceremony. But the exposure the Bond premiere gets on the UK news is big. It almost certainly gets rolling coverage on the 24/7 news and makes the papers the next day. If Eon are smart, they'd figure a way to get a socially distanced premiere together - perhaps at a glitzy Picturehouse cinema in London - and have Prince Charles attend. He is an ambassador of the CTBF fund. Having him and Dc wearing masks and elbow-bumping is marketing gold.
I think it would encourage British audiences to return to cinemas.
It could - it could also encourage resentment at seeing wealthy stars at what is essentially a big party while the general public are not allowed congregate.
Available as a pdf here: Link
I would agree with you. However, events have been going on. We recently had the Venice Film Festival and a number of Fashion Weeks (one is happening as I type in Paris). So safe and responsible events are encouraged. I think the London Film Festival will even have in-person premieres for Soul, Ammonite and Nomadland. That even starts next week...
I don't think there will be a national lockdown in England again. However, hospitality could get kneecapped again with restrictions going further than the 10pm curfew. I guess we will see the impact of these changes in the next 2-3 weeks. So it doesn't begrudge Eon to be optimistic and continue marketing. hey could always bump to January or February if the worse happens.
This is insightful....By the looks of it, British cinemas are pitching NTTD to finish it's run in cinemas with $55m!!! That's breathtakingly low! It's clear that delaying again clearly was a contractual or financial nightmare because accepting a loss of that description is baffling. I imagine there are very complicated legal reasons why they are tied to that November date.
That number is considerable less than CR, QOS, SF and SP. It's on the very conservative side of my own estimates. Based off those numbers, I think Eon are looking at 1917 as the model to emulate going into the winter. I imagine that film's final gross is what they have in mind. For these reasons, if NTTD makes $384.9 million it would be considered a success for MGM/Universal.
Oh dear....I'm still optimistic that if the cards fall their way t could make CR money. But 1917 numbers are excellent for that film. But that's a prestige Oscar film with a slightly more inflated budget. I suppose the goal for 1917 was Dunkirk's run of $526.9 million. But that was a Nolan film and, nowadays, Nolan films are lucky to get as much as 1917. So maybe $384.9 million would be excellent news for NTTD. I wanna hear @DaltonCraig007 and @antovolk takes on this
I think the decision to open now is in response to a potential paradigm shift. Open within the next few months, to the theaters that can, or wait until summer and open to even fewer theaters because they no longer exist at all. It is very possible that we are witnessing the end of the movie theater.
There is no point comparing NTTD with SF or the others because they were released on what was basically a different planet.
There is only one film it can be compared with, and that is Tenet, for better or for worse.
What worries me is that 15 - 35 year olds are the largest group attending cinemas at the moment, and Bond is marketed toward a much older crowd, who currently are not showing up to cinemas.
Posting about it five days after the fact is not exactly helping the situation.
I predict NTTD will at least triple what Tenet did in its opening weekend. And good reviews and word of mouth will keep it rolling in cinemas for quite a while. Babs and Michael seem certain that they have a winner on their hands.
I'm cautiously optimistic about the box office intake for NTTD. Of course, the main thing is that the epidemic doesn't quickly escalate and shut down theater markets. I definitely like NTTD's chances to outdo Tenet. I'm sure it will be low for Bond standards, but still hopeful for a decent number considering the circumstances.
Agreed, but that’s not quite the point I’m trying to make.
When we or the media rate a film’s success we tend to use benchmarks. “It did better/worse than SF, QOS, Star Wars, T2, Avengers Assemble, WW, TDK, Dunkirk” etc, using other films as benchmarks.
But we cannot use any of those other films as benchmarks for success anymore, because the world has changed.
Instead we have to start from scratch, all over again, building up new benchmarks, as if we are back to year zero again.
What is the new benchmark for success in this new era of closed cinemas, rolling local lockdowns and social distancing? Currently there has been only one major release, one data point, so that’s all that anyone has to go on. So, all that matters is whether NTTD will do better or worse than Tenet. It will do better than Tenet, easily, so it will be seen as a success.
Then we will be in a situation where we have two data points, Tenet and NTTD. As 2021 rolls by, more films will get released, and we will compare them against those two films. We will slowly build up our new stock of data points, our new set of benchmarks, and we will start to get a handle on what actually is cinematically viable on this new planet of ours, and our definition of what a successful movie is will get gradually recalibrated.
"Interstellar" made $18 million in Germany,
"Dunkirk" made $8 million.
So for a Nolan film "Tenet" is not doing that bad in Germany.
Bond in Germany is like Avengers in the US.
Over the last decade (2010 - 2019) the only US/UK-movie, that had more admissions in Germany than "Skyfall" and "Spectre" was "Star Wars - Episode VII: The Force Awakens".
Bond is also huge in Switzerland. SF had 1.2m tickets sold and SP also over 1m which is a lot for such a small country (8m). Only Titanic and Intouchables had more visitors than SF and almost every Bond was the most successful movie of the year. Unfortunately we are too small to make an impact.
Which is why the discourse around Tenet has been the way it was.
Wouldn't a table read be cool?
Most folks who fed those box office coffers for the last several films are not fanatics, and likely will be more patient than fanatics in terms of waiting to see it later. Many younger folks are not big theatergoers in the first place, and are quite used to watching their entertainment -- games, films, etc. -- at home on a large-screen tv. This changing dynamic might inform the decision-making of the producers, distributors and others, who may perceive that changes have been happening, before and regardless of this pandemic.
Many folks figure they've avoided ill health so far, and they are not inclined to toss all that successful and/or lucky avoidance now, particularly for just an entertainment.
These factors likely are quite enough to suppress box office results, as occurred for Tenet, in some locations, at least. As for the locations which were having better, decreased disease numbers at the time Tenet was released, some of those locations -- such as Great Britain -- are going back up again. If NTTD gets released now many folks will figure -- here comes the play on the title's words -- that the present, particularly for the sake of just a little fun, not something as significant as a family event, is no time to die.
Were it released as scheduled, it would indicate either unrealism on the part of producers, distributors, etc., or resigned acceptance that the film likely won't make as much as the last several, and they'll perhaps go for a big home video push soon thereafter, and so be it.
I know I've made these statements already, but I find it remarkable that some fans online say things like "it MUST be released now !", "I'm tired of waiting !", "this film will be such a big deal that people will show up in the theaters !" I realize some of these statements are expressions of longing -- not merely for a Bond film experience in a theater -- but some of them are presented as the product of thought, reflection and due consideration. Of course, people can disagree, but these statements, if serious, seem unrealistic and fly in the face of that which already has been demonstrated.
I hope to avoid spoilers, and that it gets released on VOD quicker than what would otherwise have been the practice, and I sure do look forward to seeing it.
A movie theatre is the most safe environment you can go to.
You don't risk your life going there.
I have been to the movies over 100 times since May, when theatres re-opened.
I don't feel safer anywhere else in public. I've been to classical concerts aswell. I was at this concert:
You can see how far apart everyone sits.
I've been to this Tennis tournament last week:
Just give me one case of a superspreader event in a cinema, where someone infected other visitors.
It did not happen, not in Europe, not in the US, not in Asia or elsewhere. Otherwise the media would have reported on it as they do with every restaurant- or school-outbreak.
Lots of space, perfect air conditions.
Even IF someone who has the virus is sitting in the same screening as you, the chance he will infect you is as low as it can be.
However, runners and movie goers are for some reasons shamed for jogging and going to the theatre. I will never understand that, but it definitely shows how much people have been brainwashed by TV and politicians.
In the US, re-openings did not occur in May. Closures were but briefly underway, comparatively speaking, by May.
You're a real champ at the cinema, by the way, having gone to movies in theaters over 100 times since May. Seeing the same films more than once, perhaps ? There's only so many films out there to see ! If you are a paying customer you've certainly spent a small fortune, even if paying only for yourself ! Since May, as of October 2nd, includes just 124 days, including today. The theater operators must be very fond of you, seeing over 100 movies in 124 days. Of course, if your reference to "since May" was to a date during the month, then, at most, 155 days. If there is a record entry for attending films in theaters, you may be in the next book of records !
Theater safety is tough to evaluate here in the US, where theaters in some locations have been closed a long while and have no track record to speak of since re-opening, for any which have re-opened. Theaters do generally have higher ceilings and strong a/c, but they -- pre-pandemic, at least -- would pause the a/c between showings, and I have not noticed whether that practice is part of the theater associations' new "code of cleanliness." Sure, there have been drive-in presentations, with those in attendance quite spaced apart. This limits receipts.
Among people testing positive, there is a demonstrated strong correlation with them having gone to a restaurant shortly before testing positive. So, for many folks, they are not fond yet of enclosed spaces, generally, even with spacing between persons present.
Participating theaters have adopted certain practices, but a customer would be trusting the theater to clean well, at whatever frequency they employ. Additionally, with regard to Box Office results -- keeping the theater at less than full capacity and with social distancing employed would negatively affect how much could be received from paying customers in any specified amount of time. If you're keeping a theater less than full, then you cannot collect the same BO receipts as if it were full, without showing it more times per day, or without measuring over a longer period of time. So- even if ALL fans were to enthusiastically show up, earning the same BO would take significantly longer.
The theatre were very strict about enforcing social distancing and mask wearing when we were in the foyer and going into the screen.
But once we sat down that all fell apart. We were the only group who kept our masks on in any way, shape or form. Everyone else took them off for basically the entire time. I think they were actually allowed to do this as they had a bag of sweets or a drink or whatever else with them. The attendants simply left everyone to it and didn’t once ask anyone to put a mask back on, regardless of the fact that they were having a sip of drink at 10 minute intervals. It was a complete mockery of trying to make people feel safe
If there's going to be any shark-jumping in future Bonds, they could again borrow from Austin Powers (since borrowing from British secret agent spoofs has become the thing to do, a la Blofeld being Bond's brother, and the borrowing it seems occurs in NTTD from the first Kingsmen movie), and place a bit of an homage to LALD, with Bond literally jumping over sharks -- rather than stepping on alligators -- but sharks with frickin' laser beams on their heads. If you're going to "jump the shark", do it literally !
That was sort of my experience. But the theater was only about 30% full. I did not feel unsafe.