The Trump vs Biden 2020 US Election

edited November 3 in General Discussion Posts: 5,695
Yes, I know political threads on this forum have a tendency to go off rails, but I think the magnitude of this election means it deserves a thread. At least lets make an attempt, shall we? All opinions, remarks or forecasts are allowed as long as we keep it civil and respectful. Remember; "there are good people on both sides" ;)

I recommend reading the last update from Fivethirtyeight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

It is the most respected of all the poll simulations and also one of the more conservative based on Biden's chances compared to other forecasts. The last update shows Trump with a 10% percent chance of winning. Although a clear underdog, 10% is after all a reasonable chance, and although the polls will have to be wrong by historic margins for Trump to win, historic polling errors might happen... especially in political climates as difficult to call as the one we're in right now.

What's certain is that a lot is at stake and that the long term course of the United States as well as the rest of the world will most likely differ drastically depending on the outcome. Fasten your seatbelts everyone!
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Comments

  • Agent007391Agent007391 Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start
    Posts: 7,718
    Who you vote for is important, but not !as important as actually voting. Vote for who you believe in, but more just vote.
  • CommanderRossCommanderRoss The bottom of a pitch lake in Eastern Trinidad, place called La Brea
    Posts: 6,593
    @Jobo IRRC the polls were off only 4 years ago. So we'll see. The stock market is betting on Biden though.
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    edited November 3 Posts: 3,922
    It is possible that Biden wins this election and yet doesn't win. Trump is going to contest the results in court. It will get tied up for weeks, and the SCOTUS (which is now a 6-3 conservative majority) may very well hand him the presidency. Also, look for Trump to pressure the Pennsylvania legislature to change the vote of that state's electors.

    Gonna be fun. 8-|
  • edited November 3 Posts: 5,695
    TripAces wrote: »
    It is possible that Biden wins this election and yet doesn't win. Trump is going to contest the results in court. It will get tied up for weeks, and the SCOTUS (which is now a 6-3 conservative majority) may very well hand him the presidency. Also, look for Trump to pressure the Pennsylvania legislature to change the vote of that state's electors.

    Gonna be fun. 8-|

    It is a possible scenario yes but only if the election results are nore even than expected. We will know the results in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Visconsin quite early. If Biden is ahead in either of these, Trump is basically toast. He might still try to raise uncertainty about the legitimacy of the election, but hus position will be weak. If Trump is ahead in Florida, NC and Arizona however, the outcome of the election depends on the results that will arrive late from Pennsylvania, Trump could sneakily claim victory before all ballots are counted. But its only in that scenario.
  • BennyBenny spammer bannerModerator
    Posts: 10,782
    Just so we're clear. This thread will remain open only until the outcome is decided. After the final results are in, it can be closed.
    No need for the backlash of what could've been.
    Sure you understand.
  • edited November 3 Posts: 5,695
    @Jobo IRRC the polls were off only 4 years ago. So we'll see. The stock market is betting on Biden though.

    True. There are a couple of reasons to expect the polls to be more accurate this time though:

    1. They have had four years to correct their mistakes. The main weakness with thepolls in 2016 was that the demographic of white non educated males were not weighted enough in the polls. That has been rectified now.
    2. In 2016 there was a significant ammount of undecided voters that went to Trump during the last couple of days (partly due to the Comey letter presumably). The ammount of undecided voters is almost non existent this year.
    3. Bidens lead is almost twice as big as Clinton's, so even with a similar unbalance in the polls, he would still win albeit much more narrowly.

    However, as staited before, the polls could indeed be wrong, for different reasons not yet foreseen...
  • Posts: 5,695
    Benny wrote: »
    Just so we're clear. This thread will remain open only until the outcome is decided. After the final results are in, it can be closed.
    No need for the backlash of what could've been.
    Sure you understand.

    Sounds very reasonable
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 18,273
    jobo wrote: »
    Benny wrote: »
    Just so we're clear. This thread will remain open only until the outcome is decided. After the final results are in, it can be closed.
    No need for the backlash of what could've been.
    Sure you understand.

    Sounds very reasonable

    We are never not reasonable, sir. ;-)
  • BirdlesonBirdleson San Jose, CAModerator
    Posts: 29,624
    I don't think this is a good idea.
  • Posts: 7,923
    Birdleson wrote: »
    I don't think this is a good idea.

    Glad i am not the only one

    3 things not discuss Politics Religion and Timothy Dalton's tenure as 007
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    Posts: 3,922
    Risico007 wrote: »
    Birdleson wrote: »
    I don't think this is a good idea.

    Glad i am not the only one

    3 things not discuss Politics Religion and Timothy Dalton's tenure as 007

    giphy.gif
  • Posts: 7,923
    TripAces wrote: »
    Risico007 wrote: »
    Birdleson wrote: »
    I don't think this is a good idea.

    Glad i am not the only one

    3 things not discuss Politics Religion and Timothy Dalton's tenure as 007

    giphy.gif

    Do so at your own Peril but Daltonites know the truth he should of had 8 films he was so fantastic!
  • Posts: 5,695
    Risico007 wrote: »
    TripAces wrote: »
    Risico007 wrote: »
    Birdleson wrote: »
    I don't think this is a good idea.

    Glad i am not the only one

    3 things not discuss Politics Religion and Timothy Dalton's tenure as 007

    giphy.gif

    Do so at your own Peril but Daltonites know the truth he should of had 8 films he was so fantastic!

    At least there's one thing we can agree on then... ;)
  • R1s1ngs0nR1s1ngs0n France
    Posts: 614
    In the words of the late great Scotsman, discussing such topics “could be risky, very risky”.
    Not touching the subject with a ten-foot pole but I’ll follow the thread with great interest for as long as it stays open.
  • Creasy47Creasy47 In Cuba with Natalya.Moderator
    Posts: 33,514
    It'll stay up until the results are confirmed, provided everyone can play civil and nice.
  • Posts: 7,923
    Creasy47 wrote: »
    It'll stay up until the results are confirmed, provided everyone can play civil and nice.

    its for this reason alone I fear to discus my views at work i am again reminded that many here are viewing things one way and if i am honest my job could be in jeopardy.
  • mtmmtm United Kingdom
    edited November 3 Posts: 4,798
    I'm in the UK but so nervous about waking up tomorrow morning. Please let them have got rid of that man by then.
    And it does indeed affect the rest of the world so it's not just being nosey about another country's affairs. The SCOTUS thing is indeed a worry.
  • Posts: 5,695
    mtm wrote: »
    I'm in the UK but so nervous about waking up tomorrow morning. Please let them have got rid of that man by then.
    And it does indeed affect the rest of the world so it's not just being nosey about another country's affairs. The SCOTUS thing is indeed a worry.

    Indeed. Those who pretend the election only matters to americans are wrong. The two candidates have drastically different views and policies on climate change, foreign relations, trade, the EU, NATO and so on.
  • j_w_pepperj_w_pepper Hamburg, near the Atlantic Hotel
    Posts: 5,873
    I think it should be a non-issue that the U.S. is the most important nation in regards of its world influence (for good or for bad), under just about ANY kind of administration (some more, some less) decided to play world police, meddle with politics and bully governments in basically every other place (also for good or bad, depending on the case)...and therefore, regardless of the outcome, cannot expect the rest of the world to cease worrying about and discussing the prospects of who will remain or will become its head of state, probably the most powerful post in the entire world.

    I'll leave it at that, so as not to disrupt the diplomatic peace in this thread. I guess everyone can guess what I think the stakes are today/tonight.
  • Posts: 5,695
    I had initialy planned to ask our American friends whether they have already voted, are planning to vote and in which state... but if that information is regarded to be as sensitive as it seems to be... I will not be a hassle ;)
  • Posts: 2,040
    I voted a week ago. In California every registered voter received a ballot in the mail. I filled mine out and then made sure to directly hand it over to an official outdoor voting station next to City Hall in San Francisco.
  • Posts: 7,923
    jobo wrote: »
    I had initialy planned to ask our American friends whether they have already voted, are planning to vote and in which state... but if that information is regarded to be as sensitive as it seems to be... I will not be a hassle ;)

    I will vote this evening
  • mtmmtm United Kingdom
    Posts: 4,798
    Revelator wrote: »
    I voted a week ago. In California every registered voter received a ballot in the mail. I filled mine out and then made sure to directly hand it over to an official outdoor voting station next to City Hall in San Francisco.

    As long as no intuitively improvising genius burns it down then your vote should be safe! :)
  • MaxCasinoMaxCasino United States
    Posts: 1,505
    I just hope Kentucky votes out Mitch McConnell. He’s even worse than Trump. Satan doesn’t even probably want to deal with him. Between him, Johnny Depp and Jennifer Lawrence, Kentucky does look good with its famous people it gives the world!
  • DarthDimiDarthDimi Behind you!Moderator
    Posts: 18,273
    Risico007 wrote: »
    jobo wrote: »
    I had initialy planned to ask our American friends whether they have already voted, are planning to vote and in which state... but if that information is regarded to be as sensitive as it seems to be... I will not be a hassle ;)

    I will vote this evening

    Who gets your vote? :p

    Sorry, couldn't resist. ;)

    All I hope is that I won't have to wake up next morning to news about violent protests and whatnot in America. Even if people disagree with the outcome, why do shop owners and common folks have to suffer the wrath?
  • Posts: 2,040
    mtm wrote: »
    As long as no intuitively improvising genius burns it down then your vote should be safe! :)

    I'd like to think that Zorin would hold his nose at the prospect of helping the current villains! Either that or he's busy flirting with the mermaids under the Golden Gate.
  • I predict four more years of George.
  • Posts: 5,695
    I predict four more years of George.

    Lazenby? ;)
  • TripAcesTripAces Universal Exports
    Posts: 3,922
    Risico007 wrote: »
    TripAces wrote: »
    Risico007 wrote: »
    Birdleson wrote: »
    I don't think this is a good idea.

    Glad i am not the only one

    3 things not discuss Politics Religion and Timothy Dalton's tenure as 007

    giphy.gif

    Do so at your own Peril but Daltonites know the truth he should of had 8 films he was so fantastic!

    @Risico007 I was just delighted there was some humor in the thread...and a Bondian element!
  • jobo wrote: »
    I predict four more years of George.

    Lazenby? ;)

    Haha!! He only works for her majesty. 😉😜
This discussion has been closed.