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Serious escalation in Syrian conflict: Turkey shoots down Russian fighter jet

Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
edited November 2015 in General Discussion Posts: 11,119
How did Elliot Carver put it? "A serious conflict is brewing in the South-China Sea". Except, this time the conflict is brewing on the Turkish-Syrian border.
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-34908469

Just as we thought there would be a unified league of nations fighting ISIS --incorporating many NATO members, NATO-member France, who just suffered the biggest ISIS terrorist attacks, but also Russia, who suffered one of their biggest ISIS terrorist attack on a jumbojet-- now this happens.

Turkish military just shot down a Russian SU-24 fighter jet, which was, according to Turkish officials, again violating Turkish airspace. Russia however disagrees and set the fighter jet was gunned down on Syrian-Turkmenian territory by Turkmen rebel groups on the ground.

The two Russian pilots saved themselves by ejector seats, though one of them is captured by the Turkmen Rebel Group, who are fighting Assad, and who are openly allied with NATO-member Turkey. Turkey is backed by the US and various other NATO-members. Russia however, is fighting ISIS and all other oppositions with help of Assad. Russia is co-supported by Iran and Assad-led Syria.

Putin's press secretary just declared: "This is a very serious incident, but it is too early to draw conclusions."
Erdogan's press secretary just said: "We have given 10 warnings before shooting down the plane."
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Comments

  • GetafixGetafix
    edited November 2015 Posts: 11,425
    Very worrying.

  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    It is so simple. Only one statement of one of these two countries can be right. Thus leaving the other country a liar. This is exactly how old-fashioned wars are fuelled.
  • GetafixGetafix
    Posts: 11,425
    I know. Precisely my thoughts. It has the scary atmosphere of the prelude to a wider conflict. ISIS must be rubbing their hands with glee. This is exactly what they want.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Getafix wrote: »
    I know. Precisely my thoughts. It has the scary atmosphere of the prelude to a wider conflict. ISIS must be rubbing their hands with glee. This is exactly what they want.

    :( . Yes, my thoughts exactly. And I was really hoping for a unified league against ISIS. And now this.
  • GetafixGetafix
    Posts: 11,425
    Just hoping Putin and Erdogan and not crazy enough to escalate this further.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    edited November 2015 Posts: 8,073
    .
  • ThunderfingerThunderfinger Das Boot Hill
    Posts: 45,489
    Everyone has seen the various maps of what territories in Syria are controlled by the IS. It is basically a corridor running into the country from Turkey.
  • DrShatterhandDrShatterhand Garden of Death, near Belfast
    Posts: 805
    Bet that Gupta and his GPS Encoder is to blame
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited November 2015 Posts: 23,883
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    Getafix wrote: »
    I know. Precisely my thoughts. It has the scary atmosphere of the prelude to a wider conflict. ISIS must be rubbing their hands with glee. This is exactly what they want.

    :( . Yes, my thoughts exactly. And I was really hoping for a unified league against ISIS. And now this.
    Correct. This is exactly what they wanted. These folks are not stupid, even though they are religious zealots.
    Getafix wrote: »
    Just hoping Putin and Erdogan and not crazy enough to escalate this further.
    These things are known to get out of hand quite quickly so hopefully cooler minds prevail. From my point of view, if Russia is actually bombing ISIL (which it must be....otherwise why was their airliner bombed), and if Turkey is as well (I'm assuming they are, rather than trying to push forward with an anti-Assad agenda) then shooting a Russian airliner for violating its airspace (there is absolutely no evidence that Russia was planning to bomb Turkey) seems excessive.

    Bad play on their part. If Russia retaliates, Nato gets the ability to invoke its Article 5 Charter, and the Military Industrial Complex starts clapping its hands even harder.
  • BeatlesSansEarmuffsBeatlesSansEarmuffs
    Posts: 3,564
    bondjames wrote: »
    Bad play on their part. If Russia retaliates, Nato gets the ability to invoke its Article 5 Charter, and the Military Industrial Complex starts clapping its hands even harder.

    To quote Deep Throat: "Follow the money." It's too easy to write this off as The Law of Unintended Consequences. Some people are just too eager to see weapons use as the best way to settle any conflict. I think we need to put in some serious diplomatic time before Turkey & Russia give ISIS the apocalypse they're rooting for.
  • GetafixGetafix
    Posts: 11,425
    bondjames wrote: »
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    Getafix wrote: »
    I know. Precisely my thoughts. It has the scary atmosphere of the prelude to a wider conflict. ISIS must be rubbing their hands with glee. This is exactly what they want.

    :( . Yes, my thoughts exactly. And I was really hoping for a unified league against ISIS. And now this.
    Correct. This is exactly what they wanted. These folks are not stupid, even though they are religious zealots.
    Getafix wrote: »
    Just hoping Putin and Erdogan and not crazy enough to escalate this further.
    These things are known to get out of hand quite quickly so hopefully cooler minds prevail. From my point of view, if Russia is actually bombing ISIL (which it must be....otherwise why was their airliner bombed), and if Turkey is as well (I'm assuming they are, rather than trying to push forward with an anti-Assad agenda) then shooting a Russian airliner for violating its airspace (there is absolutely no evidence that Russia was planning to bomb Turkey) seems excessive.

    Bad play on their part. If Russia retaliates, Nato gets the ability to invoke its Article 5 Charter, and the Military Industrial Complex starts clapping its hands even harder.

    I thought Turkey was more interested in bombing the poor old Kurds. They've been bearing the brunt of the bombing ever since Churchill started bombing them in the early 20th century.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    Getafix wrote: »
    I know. Precisely my thoughts. It has the scary atmosphere of the prelude to a wider conflict. ISIS must be rubbing their hands with glee. This is exactly what they want.

    :( . Yes, my thoughts exactly. And I was really hoping for a unified league against ISIS. And now this.
    Correct. This is exactly what they wanted. These folks are not stupid, even though they are religious zealots.
    Getafix wrote: »
    Just hoping Putin and Erdogan and not crazy enough to escalate this further.
    These things are known to get out of hand quite quickly so hopefully cooler minds prevail. From my point of view, if Russia is actually bombing ISIL (which it must be....otherwise why was their airliner bombed), and if Turkey is as well (I'm assuming they are, rather than trying to push forward with an anti-Assad agenda) then shooting a Russian airliner for violating its airspace (there is absolutely no evidence that Russia was planning to bomb Turkey) seems excessive.

    Bad play on their part. If Russia retaliates, Nato gets the ability to invoke its Article 5 Charter, and the Military Industrial Complex starts clapping its hands even harder.

    This afternoon there will be an extra NATO summit. But officials already said that it will not be about Article 5 from the NATO Charter.

    There's one other thing though regarding Russia's intervention in the ISIS-conflict. And perhaps it's two-sided:

    1) It makes sense right new with a weakened Russian (quite antique) economy, to focus the public opinion on something else. And a conflict in which Russia participates usually works well to boost up public opinion. Especially after one of their own jumbojets got bombed from inside the fuselage by an ISIS-terrorist.
    2) The conflict in Syria was less complex before Russia entered Syria. No one was willing to support Assad (this man did kill millions of its own citizens too, and the man doesn't give a damn about all these Syrian refugees). The attacks were mainly focused on the real ISIS-occupied core area's, whereas now Assad has the support of Russia and Iran, to obliterate everything that's standing in Assad's way: Turkmenes, Kurds, opposition of Assad. And it works in Russia's advantage, as this will create A) more refugees that flood Europe, thus destabalizing politics on our continent (ultra-right wing, anti-Muslim, anti-EU, Russia-backed political parties are fiercely on the rise on the European mainland. And B) it will continue the lucrative arms trade between Russia and Syria/Iran. Plus Russia will gain more power in the region.

    So this is one of the reasons that currently this conflict is escalating.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited November 2015 Posts: 23,883
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    1) It makes sense right new with a weakened Russian (quite antique) economy, to focus the public opinion on something else. And a conflict in which Russia participates usually works well to boost up public opinion. Especially after one of their own jumbojets got bombed from inside the fuselage by an ISIS-terrorist.
    This cuts both ways also. The same can be said of European economies, with the war machine creating investment. That is how the US got out of the great depression so many have speculated for some years (since the great recession began) that a full scale war somewhere was inevitable. ISIL has given it to everyone. Let's spend our way out of this mess.........no need for messy domestic politics to get in the way now.....everyone is on side to drop a few bombs somewhere else miles away.

    It's not coincidence that the countries doing the bombing have large defense industries that are major weapons suppliers and exporters
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    2) The conflict in Syria was less complex before Russia entered Syria. No one was willing to support Assad (this man did kill millions of its own citizens too, and the man doesn't give a damn about all these Syrian refugees). The attacks were mainly focused on the real ISIS-occupied core area's, whereas now Assad has the support of Russia and Iran, to obliterate everything that's standing in Assad's way: Turkmenes, Kurds, opposition of Assad. And it works in Russia's advantage, as this will create A) more refugees that flood Europe, thus destabalizing politics on our continent (ultra-right wing, anti-Muslim, anti-EU, Russia-backed political parties are fiercely on the rise on the European mainland. And B) it will continue the lucrative arms trade between Russia and Syria/Iran. Plus Russia will gain more power in the region.

    So this is one of the reasons that currently this conflict is escalating.
    Yes, that's true. Russia is standing up for its interests again. It has concerns about its near abroad. As I said on the Paris thread, since the Soviet Union collapse, the Middle East has been a mess, primarily due to US incompetence and overreach.....with no clear strategy and no understanding of what mess it was cooking.

    Prior to that, there was a delicate superpower check and balance in that area, with each side supporting their own sides in the region. A sort of mini-cold war.

    Russia is bringing some of that back now under Putin, and the 'New World Order' is being reset again. It will not be an easy time until the dust settles. Instability is the new norm for now.
    BeatlesSansEarmuffs wrote: »
    To quote Deep Throat: "Follow the money." It's too easy to write this off as The Law of Unintended Consequences. Some people are just too eager to see weapons use as the best way to settle any conflict. I think we need to put in some serious diplomatic time before Turkey & Russia give ISIS the apocalypse they're rooting for.
    Agreed. The money trail usually is the key.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    The collapse of the Middle East already started when the Soviet Union was still intact. The Soviet Union openly supported the religious leaders that threw down the Shah of Persia in the late 1970's. On top of that, the Soviet Union had a big role in the mess what Afghanistan is nowadays, as they invaded Afghanistan first in the early 1980's.

    7P3K3Yv.png?1

    But have a look at this picture. I always found both Erdogan and Putin rather dangerous, too emotional, country-loving, ultra-nationalistic narcists. Thus very dangerous in conflicts like these.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited November 2015 Posts: 23,883
    The Middle East is a playground for the powerful and wealthy....who want to further their interests. All sides are to blame. No one is faultless. The crime of that region is to have natural resources that the world wants, and it's also the source of a few religions. Otherwise, no one would give a damn.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    Posts: 8,073
    Do you think soon we will go back to having the Russians being the bad guys in a Bond film?
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Mendes4Lyfe wrote: »
    Do you think soon we will go back to having the Russians being the bad guys in a Bond film?

    It think it would more be a scenario like this:
    New S.P.E.C.T.R.E.-member Lucia Sciarra sits in the back of the Rolls-Royce, together with her associate. She then utters the line: "It's always nice to see how easily those stupid compass needles start swirling when you put another, more powerful magnet next to it"

    :)
  • tigers99tigers99
    Posts: 582
    Mendes4Lyfe wrote: »
    Do you think soon we will go back to having the Russians being the bad guys in a Bond film?

    I can't actually think of a Bond film where the Russians are the bad guys apart from 'rogue' Russians like General Orlov, or the perceived enemy to be the Russians but not, a la FRWL.
  • Mendes4LyfeMendes4Lyfe The long road ahead
    edited November 2015 Posts: 8,073
    I guess the more pertinent question is: is WWIII days away? :-S
  • Suivez_ce_parachuteSuivez_ce_parachute
    edited November 2015 Posts: 2,015
    Well just ask the experts here, if they say yes, hopefully it'll mean no :)
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    edited November 2015 Posts: 23,883
    Mendes4Lyfe wrote: »
    I guess the more pertinent question is: is WWIII days away? :-S
    The proxy 3rd world war has actually been underway from some time. In Ukraine. In Syria. Even in the South China Sea. etc etc. It's just getting more animated now. Cooler minds hopefully will prevail to sort things out, like happened with the Ukraine scenario.
  • CraigMooreOHMSSCraigMooreOHMSS Dublin, Ireland
    Posts: 8,026
    Reports coming in now of a Russian Rescue Helicopter being shot down by the Syrian Rebels.

    I'm sure Putin's teeth are well chattered today.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited November 2015 Posts: 11,119
    CraigMooreOHMSS wrote: »
    Reports coming in now of a Russian Rescue Helicopter being shot down by the Syrian Rebels.

    I'm sure Putin's teeth are well chattered today.

    This sounds exactly how Russia blatantly nullified Ukrainian and Georgian sovereignity. Hoppaaa.....just crossing the border and rescueing the Russian survivor, WITHOUT first tackling the already big crisis Russia is in now with Turkey. 'Careful' and 'Nuance' are words not to be found in the Russian dictionary.

    And then this message came from Russian foreign minister Lavrov:
    "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has advised Russians not to visit Turkey and said the threat of terrorism there was the no less than in Egypt, where a Russian passenger plane was brought down last month."

    You must have some real guts to compare the Turkish NATO-backed military with ISIS-terrorists #:-S . Erdogan will follow with a reaction off course, one that perhaps outblows the Russian ludicrous reactions. Though Erdogan is now in a meeting with other NATO-countries first.
  • Problem_EliminatorProblem_Eliminator Ojai, CA
    Posts: 613
    This is some bad news I'll be paying attention to this hopefully it doesn't get to out of hand that's the last thing we need.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    Posts: 11,119
    Problem_Eliminator wrote: »
    This is some bad news I'll be paying attention to this hopefully it doesn't get to out of hand that's the last thing we need.

    Maybe you can put put your nickname into practice :-P?

  • Problem_EliminatorProblem_Eliminator Ojai, CA
    Posts: 613
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    Problem_Eliminator wrote: »
    This is some bad news I'll be paying attention to this hopefully it doesn't get to out of hand that's the last thing we need.

    Maybe you can put put your nickname into practice :-P?
    LOL

  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited November 2015 Posts: 11,119
    CNN:
    Russian President Vladimir Putin called the downing of the Russian plane a "Stab in the back that will have serious consequences for Russia's relationship with Turkey!"

    And Turkey's ambassador to the United States, Serdar Kilic, was equally aggressive in his comments, tweeting: "Understand this! Turkey is a country whose warnings should be taken seriously and listened to. Don't test Turkey's patience. Try to win its friendship."

    Further developments:

    It seems that shortly after the Turkish F-16's shot down the Russian Sukhoi Su-24, the two Russian pilots got into safety with their ejector seats. But shortly before they landed in territory now in control of Turkmene rebels, they were shot dead by the 10th coastal brigade and part of the Turkmen Mountain Military, said Turkmen military leader Abu Ibrahim al-Sheghri.

    So I think all hopes for a big anti-ISIS-coalition, containing Russia, and several NATO-countries, is now dead in the water. Russia will go wild now. And hopefully Turkey's rage can be maintained a bit better by the NATO.
  • bondjamesbondjames You were expecting someone else?
    Posts: 23,883
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    So I think all hopes for a big anti-ISIS-coalition, containing Russia, and several NATO-countries, is now dead in the water. Russia will go wild now. And hopefully Turkey's rage can be maintained a bit better by the NATO.
    That would be terribly unfortunate indeed. Let's see what Putin does. He is a better tactician than many give him credit for. If anything, he has been unpredictable with every move to date, on Ukraine, and on Syria. Turkey may have to be reeled in, as you note. They'd be fools to think Nato would go to war for them....imho.
  • Gustav_GravesGustav_Graves
    edited November 2015 Posts: 11,119
    bondjames wrote: »
    Gustav_Graves wrote: »
    So I think all hopes for a big anti-ISIS-coalition, containing Russia, and several NATO-countries, is now dead in the water. Russia will go wild now. And hopefully Turkey's rage can be maintained a bit better by the NATO.
    That would be terribly unfortunate indeed. Let's see what Putin does. He is a better tactician than many give him credit for. If anything, he has been unpredictable with every move to date, on Ukraine, and on Syria. Turkey may have to be reeled in, as you note. They'd be fools to think Nato would go to war for them....imho.

    I'm not sure though. He completely aleinates all neighbouring countries, from the Baltic states to Poland, from Ukraine to Turkey and Georgia. Putin is completely isolating itself. Even in the UN Security Council China frequently abstains from voting, whereas Russia objects every vote that is related to a Russian-border conflict..
  • SarkSark Guangdong, PRC
    Posts: 1,138
    I guess the more pertinent question is: is WWIII days away?

    Nope.
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